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Thread: When to get in; When to get out;

  1. #1
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    Default When to get in; When to get out;

    One constant is players really don't know when to leave a table or stay in the game. This causes some very heated arguments from profit to it's all one big session.

    The element few consider is their time. What is your time worth?

    Another factor is Sessions. Few actually define their session. Hence, why sit down? Why leave? From the time you sit until the time you leave should be a session.
    I've yet to see one blackjack player sitting, eating, and sleeping at the same table for more than a 24 hour period.

    The primary concern should be your game. IF you HAVE game? Then casino tolerance is a primary factor of leaving vs staying. If you don't have game. Then you need to GET game before your ever sit down to play.

    The best way to GET game is CV Data and Verite. Get ready to work. CV Data will help you streamline the tag values assigned to give your game the ultimate efficiency. Verite is simply a practice game. But you can practice exactly the way you should play in a casino. IF you're just starting out? You're not a good player. IF you can't beat Verite in the quiet and privacy of your home, how to you plan to win consistently in the hustle and noise of a casino?

    You always want to play when you have then best chance to win. Find that inside lane. Depending on travel, cost, loving to play, and length of stay this is a moving target.
    The game is fun, but it's not about entitlement. You must be present in order to get paid. You must do your homework AND do you work at home in order to be the best you can be and remain within casino tolerance so you can get paid consistently.

    Blackjack is the business of your invested time and your hard earned money. How are you going to be spend it?
    Last edited by Moses; April 5th, 2019 at 11:42 AM.

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    Default

    He should receive an honest and straightforward answer without leaving this forum.

    Fenenc writes:

    ...And that is not problem. It is nearly impossible to get one honest straight forward answer on a forum. Most answers are predicated to the game play and what is "in" the player. Meistro plays until he can't see straight. Bosox says $5.00. Create confusion to confound the understanding. IF you're looking for THE answer on a forum, you were in trouble before you ever started and will soon get even more bewildered.

    Now, I can tell you exactly what I do in a single deck straight up game. Every move has a purpose, a cause, and a result. All rotate around the other. Sort of like a motion offense in basketball...which I realize most know nothing about. But that won't help a shoe player and one who plays with others at the table. Most of it would apply to double deck straight up players with some minor tweaks.

    CV Data, Verite, and understanding the casino tolerance in your area or where you are going in your travel is where you will find the answers. I'm not saying it's easy. I'm saying it's worth it for me and maybe will be for you IF you put in the time and the worst. But if you think this game is easy? Get ready to be disappointed.
    Last edited by Moses; April 5th, 2019 at 01:06 PM.

  3. #3
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    Default At what point do you cash out?

    The fact the OP needs to ask this question is an indication he shouldn't be buying in to play in the first place.

    However, no one sits at a table forever. So rather than another 100 post thread of nonsense, can Don S simply provide an equitable solution based on his vast knowledge and years of experience?

    Bob, this might, I say might be a better approach than a Don Johnson comparison. I would think at a $5 shoe with a $100 buy in, some sort of a formula could be devised. IF I've played for on hour, and up $100, with a negative TC -5, and 4 other players at the table? I'd move on.
    Last edited by Moses; April 5th, 2019 at 01:25 PM.

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    Default

    It seems to me that this thread is pretty much become:

    "How much money should a player expect to win while playing a losing game?"

    Wouldn't this thread be a wonderful addition to The Disadvantage Forum?

    Buckster writes:


    Right at the 50th post. See what I mean Norm? You could make this thread go away and no one would notice, let alone care. The is not one productive post in the entire thread.

    At least by making an automatic stop at 50, the nonsense couldn't continue.

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    Default Getting Antsy! Where Are the Losses

    The losses are out there. They just have not been coming my way lately. It will be a real downer when they finally do come, and they always do come. However, I have been riding pretty high positive variance lately. I had only one loss in the last 13 times I played, and in those 13 times I played, I averaged a little over $75 an hour. Not bad for red chipping, but it won't last. The year 2019 started out like 2018 and not a loss in sight.
    Midwest player writes;


    Relax Turbo. You're thinking too much. You played 13 times last year. I played 20 times last week.

    PB/Dealer Requests ID Due To Young Looks, Should I Just Play Rated?
    Now I look young. With that being said; my ID is shown every time I sit at the table to either the PB/Dealer. I assume upon review of the tape, the EITS can see my full name, location and everything. Or even the PB simply just looking at the card to inspect if I'm legal to sit at the table.

    In other words, if they want to know who I am, they can. Any point in playing unrated at this point? Or should I just try to squeeze more comps out, match plays, credits and etc by going rated.

    The action I have been giving them is close to a 35-1 spread on shoes, for the DD, I've been keeping it more moderate and going 12-1. but I have an amazing degenerate act (or I'd like to think).

    With all things considered, should I play unrated or rated?

    Naw, keep playing with those large spreads and you'll begin to look old soon enough. Heck, just keep losing...you'll be fine. It's when you start winning it back you will find trouble. No play. No pay.
    Last edited by Moses; April 7th, 2019 at 02:27 PM.

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    Default

    I did not neg your post nor Zee's in this thread. I was tempted to suggest it be moved tot he disadvantage section for being voodoo, but I refrained. So how does the lunatic who talks to himself know how post ratings break down? If you believe him, you are as deranged as he is.

    It isn't hard to figure out. YOU hide, behind Hidden Member Name. Then you come out with two sentence jabs, threaten to leave, leave, comeback repeat.
    You're a very boring person and scared of your own shadow.
    IF this so called lunactic ever stood before you? You'd shit yourself. Try to come up with something new boring boy.

    First you ignore, then you ridicule, if you fight me, and then I win.
    Last edited by Moses; April 7th, 2019 at 08:11 PM.

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    Default

    I lost 1.3k two days ago. Does that mean I'm due for a win?

    RCJH writes:

    No. It just means your game needs work.

    I'm totally okay with ploppies, dealers, and the pit thinking I'm an idiot. In fact, I prefer it.

    Keep losing $1.3 every two days and you should be fine.

  8. #8
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    Default Free throws

    RS writes; Not sure why people are ragging on OP for his post. I don’t see where he said he’s due for a big negative downswing. Even though we all know, those downswings are out there, and the biggest one hasn’t hit yet.

    I read his post as kinda keeping himself grounded. He’s on an amazing(?) fun, but he still knows that just because he’s been doing well, it doesn’t mean it’s going to keep going that way. It can be easy to lose track of reality and assume the current results are indicative of what is “normal”. In the same way, when you’re getting your dick crushed every session, it’s also easy to see no light at the end of the tunnel, because you’re just prepared and expecting the next session to be another big loser.

    For one thing, he played 13 times in a year, in a year, in a FUCKING YEAR. That's 352 days he didn't play. He spent 4 times as many days shoveling snow off his roof than he did playing blackjack.

    Your game is like shooting free throws. IF everything is aligned properly and you practice then you will win. If your missing shot after shot then your shot needs work and your mechanics are not properly aligned. This thing everyone refers to as variance is likely a result of poor game selection, poor play, and reading shit like this on forums. I could play blindfolded in 13 sessions and still possibly come out ahead.

    RS you not only have the right, but the duty, to Remain Silent when you spew something Really Stupid as this. That's like me giving updates after Monday thru Wednesday and then Thursday thru Saturday...50 times a year. 100 reports a YEAR for chissake! Geezuous.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-cPo1wqxD8
    Last edited by Moses; April 8th, 2019 at 05:32 AM.

  9. #9
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    Default Norm Delete the crap

    Midwest player writes:

    However, overall I have won there. I have made 4 lifetime trips to Laughlin and won on 3 out of the 4.
    Trip 1: 28.0 hrs won $1,300.
    Trip 2: 37.0 hrs won $2,098.
    Trip 3: 32.0 hrs lost $1,391.
    Trip 4: 26.5 hrs won $1,793.
    Totals 123.5 hrs won $3,800. or $30.77 per hour playing time.

    21Forme writes:
    What does that matter?


    Holy crap! I agree with 21Forme? I'm not leaving the house today.

    I've played about 15k hands, which is about 150 hours ass in seat time invested, since the beginning of the year. Primarily $25 tables resulted in $9k profit.
    109 wins 79 loss 49 ties. No expenses.

    What does it matter? It doesn't.

    Here is what does matter. If I continued to post my results and 100 others did the same? Rules get worse. But you blame the casinos. It's called being proactive Norm.

    If you deleted this crap, sooner or later, they would stop posting it. Finally, we got KJ to shut his pie hole. Zee and Midwest Player should be easy.
    Last edited by Moses; April 9th, 2019 at 10:18 AM.

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    Default Zee writes:

    It means the games are playable, the recommended trip ain't so bad.

    No, it means Midwest Player could be full of crap. No practice, no additional effort extended, just flew in and won with HiLO. You guys are all so damn worried about variance. Maybe you go and lose $2000 to even out Midwest Players victory. I know, I know, THAT sounds ridiculous. Why? Because it is ridiculous. JUST PLAY THE DAMN GAME.

    This, "I'm a recreational player who always just shows up and plays, therefore, I don't make as much as a Pro is pure crap." IF you don't work at your game, you don't get rewards. Come here and play me. I'll be the house if HiLo is all your packing. Plus you don't need to worry about heat. These "pros" spend most of their time on a forum. when do they have time to play?

  11. #11
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    Default Bob writes

    Not necessarily. Have you read any of Midwest Player posts lately? Heís been on a hot streak for about two years. It could be heís really lucky, or in AP jargon on the positive side of variance. Or he could be making it up. I donít believe the last statement....just throwing it out there as a possibility.

    At any rate, as we all know short terms results donít mean much.


    Okay Bob, Let's break down these numbers a little more. Let's assume each trip was 4 days which means he spent 3 full days at a blackjack table. The average would be slightly over 10 hours per day. IF he got in 100 hands per hour, that's 3,000 per trip. Hard to get in that many hands with others at the table. Still, that is a load of blackjack of 1000 hands per day assuming he played mostly straight up..

    So, if he played 12,000 hands and made $3800 play playing red chip. This is an average of $.32 per hand. IF he played 6,000 hands which is still 500 hands per day, that is $.64 per hand. My example is $.60 per hand at green chip or 5 times the red chip level and I always play straight up at a leisure pace over 3 1/2 months. What's wrong with this picture?
    That is NOT a hot streak. That is a streak of bullshit.

  12. #12
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    Default

    Norm writes:

    Somebody figured out how much it costs in salaries, equipment, and real estate to spend all day shuffling. Paranoia is expensive.

    Norm summed it up well. Cut deep and protect your games against real threats. That's the way for the casino to maximize EV. The Zender approach.
    21forme writes

    Yep. IF it's too good to be true? It probably is not going to be true for very long. Therefore, you'd better have game before you ever sit down to play. This is why all the success stories of easy money are NOT true. Do the math! Do the homework!

    MWP has been playing for a long time now successfully "red chip or not" and does not need to make up bullshit stories. He is just trying to help ZeeBabar find other areas to play. Bosox writes.

    More info is needed. Do the math! $30 an hour at the red chip level is $150 at the green chip. Don't let your dislike for Bob turn you into an idiot. Laughlin and Wendover are high heat, low pen towns. Left out was how many days did it take to play those hours. Seems like most of his trips are 3 or 4 days which means 2 or 3 days of full play. How many hands were played per hour? Those tables are usually full during peak hours and you're watched like a hawk when the casino is empty. Preferential shuffling is common.

    Do be stupid enough to think you're going to schedule 4 trips a year and make $3800 annually playing red chips. This assumes free flight, free food, free room, and no rental car. Break even? Maybe, but I doubt it. IF you had game, a strong count, and played with no more than one other player at the table, you'd be hard pressed to get in 1000 hands a week at 60% pen of a 3.2 game. That's just red chip. Green chip and pit bosses start fainting.

    Bosox, Why do you deem yourself worthy to sit in judgement of Bob21? Seems like a good kid to me. Works a full time job and plays on the weekends. You don't like him but you don't know why. You just try to follow the in crowd. You're pathetic. Once, just once, I'd like to see you take something on where you stand alone and not follow the leads of others.

    Midwest Player stated he only played 13 days in a year. That's 352 days he didn't play. I doubt if you even play that much as you're on the forum everyday - all day waiting to pounce - like your job is FUDD. You guys are the PROS giving advice? When is the last time you or Midwest Player have ever reviewed a sim. Practiced on Verite. This is competition at the highest level where you lose by forfeit. Not something one just strolls in unprepared and wins. No wonder the younger players have entitlement issues.


    Last edited by Moses; April 10th, 2019 at 11:22 AM.

  13. #13
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    Default

    Midwest player writes:
    Winter returns to the U.P. It is not too bad yet. It looks like the plains and MN are getting the worst. They are predicating up to 10 inches for us, and if we get that it will take out last years snowfall record.

    Now there is handy little piece of information there. I'll tell you that right how.

    I'm glad I didn't head out on a blackjack trip this week.

    13 days may not happen this year.

  14. #14
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    Default Midwest Player writes

    Moses, I never said I played only 13 times in a year. You better learn how to read. I said in the last 13 times I played I only had one loss. I played a total of 263 hours in 2018 for about 6 hours each day I played.

    I stand corrected. My apologies. So you played 44 days in 2018. That means there were still 321 days you didn't play. Since most of your posts are about snow, it appears you have not played since November 2018 which is 6 months or 1/2 year.

    Why are you posting short term information? At 263 hours a year, even if you played 100 hands per hour, which is unlikely, you wouldn't have any meaningful results for at least 4 years. It seems this streak has made you gun shy. You wanted to lock in profits for 2018 and haven't played yet this year. Nothing wrong with this for a recreational player. However, it seems many are lead to believe you're more than that.

    IF Bob, who has said many times he plays for recreation, only plays 10 hours on weekends, that is still 2600 hours a year.

    When the good Lord shine his light upon you, which clearly is the case, according to your results. You don't question. You don't expect/demand more. You simply give thanks.

    By the way, I play on Verite for a few minutes almost every day I'm not on a BJ trip.

    Suppose you played 100 hands a day on Verite on the days you're not in a casino. That is less than an hour. You play exactly the way you plan to play in a casino. In a year you'd have over 32,000 hands as a review. That should be enough that the streaks of which you speak, good or bad, would no longer phase you in either direction. JUST PLAY THE GAME. IMPROVE YOUR PLAY. The results and money take care of themselves.
    Last edited by Moses; April 13th, 2019 at 10:45 AM.

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    Default Bob writes:

    Midwest Player, I thought Moses comments were spot on. You say you spend a lot of time shoveling snow off your roof. I’m lived for short periods of time in South Dakota and we’d have quite a bit of snow and I don’t remember anybody ever shoveling snow off their roofs. Most the time houses in the north have a steeper pitch so snow doesn’t build up on house roofs. If sounds like your area didn’t get that memo. Now with some of the flat roofs on warehouses, they’d have to shovel snow off roofs, but not on house roofs.

    Moses, about how many hours I play a year, you got it about right. I don’t keep real accurate records, so you’re estimate is pretty good. Some weekends I don’t play at all, but there are weekends I easily put in 20 hours. I’m a camper.

    This year I have kept better records of my playing time so we’ll see what happens. I’ve even stepped up my bet spread to 2 x $150 at casinos I don’t frequent as much. So far things have gone well, but I’m not running anywhere close to as hot as Midwest Player.

    I hope my post doesn’t get the usual nasty reply from kj for not being exclusively about gambling. I apologize for talking about shoveling snow off roofs on a gambling site. Hope this doesn’t get me barred. But to Midwest player’s credit, this is a forgotten topic on many forums. I’m glad he’s around to make us aware of this important issue. It takes all kinds! Lol

    Here is my saying to myself. It's basketball related, which pisses KJ off something fierce, thus why I do it. "The game is won or lost in practice. The rewards, or lack of, come from the execution of practice or lack of preparation." I probably play 3 times as much annually as Midwest Players and I practice/study 3 times more than I play. Therefore, it's easy for me to let the game come to me. Thus the short term swings, good or bad, have little effect. It's almost a curse because it's so damn boring. For instance, today is an off day. I will probably workout for an hour, walk for two because it's nice out. Playout 500 hands on Verite while I watch the NBA playoffs. Take lady out to dinner and NOT listen to about how I never listen anymore.
    Last edited by Moses; April 13th, 2019 at 11:16 AM.

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