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Thread: Variance for today's game and new rules

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  1. #1
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    Default Variance for today's game and new rules

    The difference is variance goes hand in hand with a persons game strategy.

    Now, most everyone reads about a game of cards played by people. I play in the reality of a game of people played with cards.

    Casino Tolerance should be your #1 priority. Now, with Norm's products, Don's advice, and a shit load of work, I can say I've learned first hand how to reduce (not eliminate) variance significantly and remain within casino tolerance.

    For example. Play 20 sessions a week at a $25 green chip table. A win or loss is $500 and thus concludes your session. Win 60% would be 12 sessions a week.
    Btw, for those giving me shit about this? It's right there is CV DATA. Let's say you loss 40%.
    Your record for the week is 12 wins = $6,000 and 8 losses = $4,000. This is a profit of $2000. If you played 50 weeks in a year it grows to $100,000. 5 years $500,000.

    At a rotation of 5 casinos. This averages out to 4 sessions per week per casino.

    Now supposed you used a more aggressive strategy at $100 black chip table. Hence, game of cards played by people. You might make $60k in 6 months with a good run. But you will have push the casinos too hard in the process and have nowhere else to compete without significantly higher expenses. Not to mention the inconvenience of travel.

    So you've made $60k in 6 months and now you get on a forum and call the casinos assholes because they will no longer let you play.

    Or you make $500k in 5 years and are still allowed to play. So let's say that still pushes them too hard. Okay, cut it in half to $250 per session. That is still $250k of funds that continue to accumulate vs $60k that stopped long ago. Now I ask you, what casino can't take a hit for $250 in a session at a green chip table. Well, there are a few. So I ask again. Do you really want to compete at a casino that can't even take a $250 hit?

    So the idea in this strategy in to play defensive. Simpler said, play to your advantages and don't throw more money at thresholds. Why? For one thing, those thresholds may or may not materialize into significant, if any, profit in your playing lifetime. Some thresholds could result in a loss. Also, when you lose, your money just became their money in the eyes of a casino. So the key is to reduce variance and still be able to play is not get too far down in the first place.

    Now KJ will go into a gay rant and call me a red chip players etc, etc. But he has never met me and I have not played red chips in years. Why? For one thing, the casinos that only offer red chip tables are not worth my time and are so so damn twitchy they ban you for practically nothing. Then, you get your name on a list, maybe your picture too. Word travels around town. Pit boss changes job and sees you again. It's a mess.

    So he makes his little rants just like he does his claims of prosperity which isn't doing any of us any favors. He simply wants/needs that acceptance of his peers. I simply want to win today - play tomorrow. So his little group of whatever's say I only play $5 tables. But not one will play me at a $100 black chip level. What is wrong with this picture?
    Last edited by Moses; February 25th, 2019 at 11:33 AM.

  2. #2
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    If anyone actually reads Moses posts when he speaks about blackjack, they would realize what he was saying between the lines. Repeating again it was not Moses who decided what level to play bj, it was always the house and the dealers. NOT what he wanted, nothing near that, He realized early on the hard way that he did not call the shots in Reno, it was going to be on their terms or leave town period. He adapted to those rules again after paying the price of being kicked out and barred and learned to play ball. Now combine a bankroll that cannot play anywhere to normal ROR standards, with lower stakes/spreads that is all you are allowed, short sessions and what do you get, very little action. The variance is there like someone starting out yes, but is not as much of a factor AT ALL for someone who has his hands tied on playing his way by hawking paranoid casinos. Of course all of that is my guess, personally I think he gets more action in the sports book. Unlike Three, Moses is not lying on this, possibly showing a little pride in ommitting that the casinos wont accept his action that he is not allowed to play at.

    Bosox writes:


    For one thing, as we've discussed, stating income is counterproductive and utter nonsense. Anything above $0 is not something to be said to pit bosses who read these forums. And rightfully so. They work hard for their money. If I said I make $100k a year. AP Pros will say it chicken feed. Others will say they do far better. Other will say I'm lying. Suppose I say $50k, or $25K why lead the opposition into this pointless discussion. So KJ, you want to evaluate my game? Come play me. IT's the only way you will ever find out.

    For me, I set 20 sessions per week as a goal a few years ago. Money is out of my control. The sessions are within my control. The rest falls into place based on a history of results. The game is easier than practice for me because I don't give myself any leeway in practice. Things happen that work to my advantage in a game of people played with cards. The key is to recognize those opportunities.

    As for my bankroll and ROR standards? I've waaaay more than I need to compete at a green or black chip level so I never concerned myself much.

    Honestly, I don't know the ratio of funds applied to blackjack vs sports bets. IF it fits? I bet. If a table is empty? I play. Quality of life is also a factor in determining EV. If it's a nice day? I walk. If it's a weekend? I practice. If I'm snowed in? I shovel.

    As I've stated before, I take what they give me, They want the appearance that someone can actually win. Otherwise, few and fewer would play.

  3. #3
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    Ok BoSox, this post was bizarre to me. I decided not to quote the whole thing as you can see. BUt you went into a lot about how Moses plays and what levels and why and stuff. I was about to respond "how the F would you know all that" when I got to the line "of course all that is my guess". So you get away with that I guess. Snuck out the back door. But, I am going to say that is one hell of a lot of speculating on your part.

    Now back to the variance thing. For a card counter variance, and I am talking about big swings and extended swings that are going to occur when you hit a period where you win or lose an abnormally high number of your max or larger wagers. That is when you are going to have your bigger swings in both directions. So a guy playing single deck and spreading maybe 1-4 is not going to have anywhere near the same swings or variance as a guy playing multideck shoe games spreading 1-16, or 1-24 spread.

    So even if we were playing the same betting level, which I am certain we are not, Moses comparing his variance to mine is lunacy.

    So like I said, I am rather certain, we are not talking anywhere near the same betting levels either, so let's look at that. Say a guy is playing red chip level, with that 1-4 spread we just mentioned for single deck. So you are talking max bet of $20. This would be right in line with Reno tolerance levels. So this guy comparing his losing days of $300, $400. Ahhhh that's 20 max bets, right?

    You won't understand this. But at 60% high cards to 40% low cards remaining ratio, I'm going from $25 to two hands at $75. At 67%, I'm going to two hands at $100.

    Now because I duck out of bad hands and bet into strong deck compositions my win loss ratio goes up considerably and the fluctuation in variance goes down significantly.

    But you won't understand this because you're too damn stupid and that will be my fault? But play me. If I'm so stupid, you stand to make a lot of money. No? But it's not worth my time for less than black chip. Instead you pop off about me like you I only play red chip and you know me? You don't know shit and you certainly don't know me. But you are going to get to know me real soon. You pull that candy-assed arrogant attitude your carry on these forums with me? You're going to look real funny with you head in your ass? Not that it isn't already.


    Now lets look at 20 max bets of my play, max bet anywhere from $400 to $800, but let's go with $500 as an average. I lose 20 max bets, I have a 10k loss day. I experience 2 of those days like I did the week in question that Moses is making a big deal about (very rare BTW) and you can see where a 29k losing week comes from (and hopefully doesn't come again for a long time).

    Again. With your nonsense. You play 100k hands a year which works out to 1923 a week. If you made 10% (192 hands) bets of $500. That means you lost 58 more times than you won. You lost 125 bets and only won 67. The percentage speaks to 97 wins and 95 losses average. And this is the work of a self professed Pro?

    It is just a case of a guy playing low limit comparing his results to a player playing much limits. His $400 daily loss is very equivalent to my $10,000 daily loss. Just so happens the week in question, I experienced 2 of those 10k losses. (and that is the only time that has ever happened)
    A daily loss of $10k would be 38 large bet hands of $500. (192/5) In order to lose $10k means winning only 9 hands and losing 29.

    But really, it wasn't about my results or his results anyway. That was just the thing used to attack me. What it really did as far as I am concerned is prove he doesn't understand the basic mathematics of this game. Something I suspected for a long time, but had no interest is calling out until he challenged the variance which while unusual, is quite easily within the math.

    I suppose it would be easy for a simple minded moron who never tries to improve his game and seeks sympathy for losing $29k in a day. I've went to great measures to reduce the variance by eliminating most thresholds and betting into stronger deck composition. Hey, that's okay. You shoe guys do what you gotta do. But for crissake sake stop crying when you lose and boasting when you win on a forum where you competition can read it? Am I the only who realizes this serves no purpose to a newbie and ruins the game for those who benefit from it?

    Ok, I am completely done with Moses Now. Next time I mention Moses I will be talking about the bible and That is not really my thing....I don't talk about that much.

    KJ writes ^:

    You really are an idiot. You may think you are completely done with Moses now. But Moses has just begun with you.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 05:56 PM.

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    KewlJ wrote:

    "So like I said, I am rather certain, we are not talking anywhere near the same betting levels either, so let's look at that. Say a guy is playing red chip level, with that 1-4 spread we just mentioned for single deck. So you are talking max bet of $20. This would be right in line with Reno tolerance levels. So this guy comparing his losing days of $300, $400. Ahhhh that's 20 max bets, right?

    Firstly, I am not playing red chip. I play green chip. But over the course of a year one makes the same as you. $2,000 a week. If I'm playing black chip then my worst week is $8,000. That's a far cry from $29K. However, casino tolerance would not allow me last a full year. Probably 6 months.

    What we are talking about is the frequency of large bets. For me, it's 6% or about 100 a week. Your swings or variance from the frequency of not knowing WTF you will do next. I'm waiting for the game to come to me.

    Now lets look at 20 max bets of my play, max bet anywhere from $400 to $800, but let's go with $500 as an average. I lose 20 max bets, I have a 10k loss day. I experience 2 of those days like I did the week in question that Moses is making a big deal about (very rare BTW) and you can see where a 29k losing week comes from (and hopefully doesn't come again for a long time).

    If that is the way your choose to play the game? I could care less. But when you constantly blame the casinos for cheating machines and cry about $29k losses follow with miraculous recoveries. You make life difficult for all of us. Just play the damn game and keep your damn mouth shut about how good you are running up and down the court in your uniform.

    It is just a case of a guy playing low limit comparing his results to a player playing much limits. His $400 daily loss is very equivalent to my $10,000 daily loss. Just so happens the week in question, I experienced 2 of those 10k losses. (and that is the only time that has ever happened)

    I will play you in a high limit game anytime anywhere.

    But really, it wasn't about my results or his results anyway."

    No it's about you being a monstrous liar and little queer. It's high time some one stepped up and made your life as difficult as running your mouth has made ours. That someone is ME.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 07:47 PM.

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    And Moses who was here at the time said nothing. Late last month I finally reached a new ATH, completely "recovering" from that and now have gone on 15 grand above it. And then Moses decides to start screaming about how abnormal that downturn was. Making post after post about how no real professional player would lose $29k in a week. Saying things like "he lost $400 on such and such a day, all he needs to do is lose 28,600 more to be a blackjack pro".


    Ding Ding Ding Bull Shit meter goes off again. You just complained about only making $187 in a month. Suddenly you jump $15K? STFU. Monstrous Liar. Little Queer. Damn, I'm going to out pace you this year and I'm not even a PRO. Of course, you won't have many places left to play once I get done with you.

    You don't have time to play because you can't get your ass off that forum. You're not posting the lengthy diatribes from a cell phone. Who are you kidding dip shit? I gave up playing to focus on you.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 08:43 PM.

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    So what?
    Everyone has been on Mendelson for years about the 18 yos in a row.
    Mendelson posts up his 8/5 BP Free Play Videos and we all pile on him for making an average of 3 mistakes per 40 hands.
    We all rag on each other all the time.

    kewlJ started the whole Mendlebread thing!
    kewlJ constantly bashes on members about being old, hateful, jealous, Cousin Eddie whatever types all the time.
    Most of it is retaliation but nobody really cares.
    kewlJ constantly starts threads like: Dan Druff Shit or Get Off the Pot.
    You think these are good threads or titles of threads.
    Next he posts up in the Vegas Forum questions like: What are the Rules of this Forum?
    How many years have you been on this forum and you don't get the idea of what the rules are?
    kewlJ has said how many times he is leaving this Forum yet to come back??
    Now he is running to the police over some phony threats from Moses?
    If he would actually do what he said and left the Forum he would not be involved in this nonsense.
    He obviously likes it because he keeps posting up threads to piss on people or piss people off.

    kewlJ has constantly ragged on the Wiz and Qfit relentlessly.
    It is obvious that the rules are different for kewlJ when he doesn't like what is posted.
    How about we all just make some Mendlebread and let bygones be bygones.
    Or not. Whatever and Who Cares?

    Didn't kewlJ fake his own death?
    Where are the internet cops for that?
    Can you legally fake your own death on an internet forum?
    Someone should tell the police about that bullshit.

    What about Spiderman?
    Didn't kewlJ post up on Qfits website under the guise of Spiderman?
    Is that deceitful or lying?
    Once Qfit found out who Spiderman was didn't he banish him?
    Where are the internet police for that?

    Now lets all sit down and have our Two Minutes of Hate.

    Excellent post Monet: Spot on. I apologize, I shouldn't have interrupted your thread to spew on KJ. My logic? That thread was a quality topic but it has run it's course. Again, poor judgement on my part. But again, it was turning in a KJ eulogy or something.

    FWIW, it's worth I tried to look up this agency myself yesterday. I was going to point out many of these things, ironically, you just stated. But I couldn't find an email address or a phone number phone Metro Cyber. Please ask KJ to submit it, IF he has it.
    Last edited by Moses; February 23rd, 2019 at 10:12 AM.

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