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Thread: Variance for today's game and new rules

  1. #1
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    Default Variance for today's game and new rules

    The difference is variance goes hand in hand with a persons game strategy.

    Now, most everyone reads about a game of cards played by people. I play in the reality of a game of people played with cards.

    Casino Tolerance should be your #1 priority. Now, with Norm's products, Don's advice, and a shit load of work, I can say I've learned first hand how to reduce (not eliminate) variance significantly and remain within casino tolerance.

    For example. Play 20 sessions a week at a $25 green chip table. A win or loss is $500 and thus concludes your session. Win 60% would be 12 sessions a week.
    Btw, for those giving me shit about this? It's right there is CV DATA. Let's say you loss 40%.
    Your record for the week is 12 wins = $6,000 and 8 losses = $4,000. This is a profit of $2000. If you played 50 weeks in a year it grows to $100,000. 5 years $500,000.

    At a rotation of 5 casinos. This averages out to 4 sessions per week per casino.

    Now supposed you used a more aggressive strategy at $100 black chip table. Hence, game of cards played by people. You might make $60k in 6 months with a good run. But you will have push the casinos too hard in the process and have nowhere else to compete without significantly higher expenses. Not to mention the inconvenience of travel.

    So you've made $60k in 6 months and now you get on a forum and call the casinos assholes because they will no longer let you play.

    Or you make $500k in 5 years and are still allowed to play. So let's say that still pushes them too hard. Okay, cut it in half to $250 per session. That is still $250k of funds that continue to accumulate vs $60k that stopped long ago. Now I ask you, what casino can't take a hit for $250 in a session at a green chip table. Well, there are a few. So I ask again. Do you really want to compete at a casino that can't even take a $250 hit?

    So the idea in this strategy in to play defensive. Simpler said, play to your advantages and don't throw more money at thresholds. Why? For one thing, those thresholds may or may not materialize into significant, if any, profit in your playing lifetime. Some thresholds could result in a loss. Also, when you lose, your money just became their money in the eyes of a casino. So the key is to reduce variance and still be able to play is not get too far down in the first place.

    Now KJ will go into a gay rant and call me a red chip players etc, etc. But he has never met me and I have not played red chips in years. Why? For one thing, the casinos that only offer red chip tables are not worth my time and are so so damn twitchy they ban you for practically nothing. Then, you get your name on a list, maybe your picture too. Word travels around town. Pit boss changes job and sees you again. It's a mess.

    So he makes his little rants just like he does his claims of prosperity which isn't doing any of us any favors. He simply wants/needs that acceptance of his peers. I simply want to win today - play tomorrow. So his little group of whatever's say I only play $5 tables. But not one will play me at a $100 black chip level. What is wrong with this picture?
    Last edited by Moses; February 25th, 2019 at 10:33 AM.

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    If anyone actually reads Moses posts when he speaks about blackjack, they would realize what he was saying between the lines. Repeating again it was not Moses who decided what level to play bj, it was always the house and the dealers. NOT what he wanted, nothing near that, He realized early on the hard way that he did not call the shots in Reno, it was going to be on their terms or leave town period. He adapted to those rules again after paying the price of being kicked out and barred and learned to play ball. Now combine a bankroll that cannot play anywhere to normal ROR standards, with lower stakes/spreads that is all you are allowed, short sessions and what do you get, very little action. The variance is there like someone starting out yes, but is not as much of a factor AT ALL for someone who has his hands tied on playing his way by hawking paranoid casinos. Of course all of that is my guess, personally I think he gets more action in the sports book. Unlike Three, Moses is not lying on this, possibly showing a little pride in ommitting that the casinos wont accept his action that he is not allowed to play at.

    Bosox writes:


    For one thing, as we've discussed, stating income is counterproductive and utter nonsense. Anything above $0 is not something to be said to pit bosses who read these forums. And rightfully so. They work hard for their money. If I said I make $100k a year. AP Pros will say it chicken feed. Others will say they do far better. Other will say I'm lying. Suppose I say $50k, or $25K why lead the opposition into this pointless discussion. So KJ, you want to evaluate my game? Come play me. IT's the only way you will ever find out.

    For me, I set 20 sessions per week as a goal a few years ago. Money is out of my control. The sessions are within my control. The rest falls into place based on a history of results. The game is easier than practice for me because I don't give myself any leeway in practice. Things happen that work to my advantage in a game of people played with cards. The key is to recognize those opportunities.

    As for my bankroll and ROR standards? I've waaaay more than I need to compete at a green or black chip level so I never concerned myself much.

    Honestly, I don't know the ratio of funds applied to blackjack vs sports bets. IF it fits? I bet. If a table is empty? I play. Quality of life is also a factor in determining EV. If it's a nice day? I walk. If it's a weekend? I practice. If I'm snowed in? I shovel.

    As I've stated before, I take what they give me, They want the appearance that someone can actually win. Otherwise, few and fewer would play.

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    Ok BoSox, this post was bizarre to me. I decided not to quote the whole thing as you can see. BUt you went into a lot about how Moses plays and what levels and why and stuff. I was about to respond "how the F would you know all that" when I got to the line "of course all that is my guess". So you get away with that I guess. Snuck out the back door. But, I am going to say that is one hell of a lot of speculating on your part.

    Now back to the variance thing. For a card counter variance, and I am talking about big swings and extended swings that are going to occur when you hit a period where you win or lose an abnormally high number of your max or larger wagers. That is when you are going to have your bigger swings in both directions. So a guy playing single deck and spreading maybe 1-4 is not going to have anywhere near the same swings or variance as a guy playing multideck shoe games spreading 1-16, or 1-24 spread.

    So even if we were playing the same betting level, which I am certain we are not, Moses comparing his variance to mine is lunacy.

    So like I said, I am rather certain, we are not talking anywhere near the same betting levels either, so let's look at that. Say a guy is playing red chip level, with that 1-4 spread we just mentioned for single deck. So you are talking max bet of $20. This would be right in line with Reno tolerance levels. So this guy comparing his losing days of $300, $400. Ahhhh that's 20 max bets, right?

    You won't understand this. But at 60% high cards to 40% low cards remaining ratio, I'm going from $25 to two hands at $75. At 67%, I'm going to two hands at $100.

    Now because I duck out of bad hands and bet into strong deck compositions my win loss ratio goes up considerably and the fluctuation in variance goes down significantly.

    But you won't understand this because you're too damn stupid and that will be my fault? But play me. If I'm so stupid, you stand to make a lot of money. No? But it's not worth my time for less than black chip. Instead you pop off about me like you I only play red chip and you know me? You don't know shit and you certainly don't know me. But you are going to get to know me real soon. You pull that candy-assed arrogant attitude your carry on these forums with me? You're going to look real funny with you head in your ass? Not that it isn't already.


    Now lets look at 20 max bets of my play, max bet anywhere from $400 to $800, but let's go with $500 as an average. I lose 20 max bets, I have a 10k loss day. I experience 2 of those days like I did the week in question that Moses is making a big deal about (very rare BTW) and you can see where a 29k losing week comes from (and hopefully doesn't come again for a long time).

    Again. With your nonsense. You play 100k hands a year which works out to 1923 a week. If you made 10% (192 hands) bets of $500. That means you lost 58 more times than you won. You lost 125 bets and only won 67. The percentage speaks to 97 wins and 95 losses average. And this is the work of a self professed Pro?

    It is just a case of a guy playing low limit comparing his results to a player playing much limits. His $400 daily loss is very equivalent to my $10,000 daily loss. Just so happens the week in question, I experienced 2 of those 10k losses. (and that is the only time that has ever happened)
    A daily loss of $10k would be 38 large bet hands of $500. (192/5) In order to lose $10k means winning only 9 hands and losing 29.

    But really, it wasn't about my results or his results anyway. That was just the thing used to attack me. What it really did as far as I am concerned is prove he doesn't understand the basic mathematics of this game. Something I suspected for a long time, but had no interest is calling out until he challenged the variance which while unusual, is quite easily within the math.

    I suppose it would be easy for a simple minded moron who never tries to improve his game and seeks sympathy for losing $29k in a day. I've went to great measures to reduce the variance by eliminating most thresholds and betting into stronger deck composition. Hey, that's okay. You shoe guys do what you gotta do. But for crissake sake stop crying when you lose and boasting when you win on a forum where you competition can read it? Am I the only who realizes this serves no purpose to a newbie and ruins the game for those who benefit from it?

    Ok, I am completely done with Moses Now. Next time I mention Moses I will be talking about the bible and That is not really my thing....I don't talk about that much.

    KJ writes ^:

    You really are an idiot. You may think you are completely done with Moses now. But Moses has just begun with you.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 04:56 PM.

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    KewlJ wrote:

    "So like I said, I am rather certain, we are not talking anywhere near the same betting levels either, so let's look at that. Say a guy is playing red chip level, with that 1-4 spread we just mentioned for single deck. So you are talking max bet of $20. This would be right in line with Reno tolerance levels. So this guy comparing his losing days of $300, $400. Ahhhh that's 20 max bets, right?

    Firstly, I am not playing red chip. I play green chip. But over the course of a year one makes the same as you. $2,000 a week. If I'm playing black chip then my worst week is $8,000. That's a far cry from $29K. However, casino tolerance would not allow me last a full year. Probably 6 months.

    What we are talking about is the frequency of large bets. For me, it's 6% or about 100 a week. Your swings or variance from the frequency of not knowing WTF you will do next. I'm waiting for the game to come to me.

    Now lets look at 20 max bets of my play, max bet anywhere from $400 to $800, but let's go with $500 as an average. I lose 20 max bets, I have a 10k loss day. I experience 2 of those days like I did the week in question that Moses is making a big deal about (very rare BTW) and you can see where a 29k losing week comes from (and hopefully doesn't come again for a long time).

    If that is the way your choose to play the game? I could care less. But when you constantly blame the casinos for cheating machines and cry about $29k losses follow with miraculous recoveries. You make life difficult for all of us. Just play the damn game and keep your damn mouth shut about how good you are running up and down the court in your uniform.

    It is just a case of a guy playing low limit comparing his results to a player playing much limits. His $400 daily loss is very equivalent to my $10,000 daily loss. Just so happens the week in question, I experienced 2 of those 10k losses. (and that is the only time that has ever happened)

    I will play you in a high limit game anytime anywhere.

    But really, it wasn't about my results or his results anyway."

    No it's about you being a monstrous liar and little queer. It's high time some one stepped up and made your life as difficult as running your mouth has made ours. That someone is ME.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 06:47 PM.

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    And Moses who was here at the time said nothing. Late last month I finally reached a new ATH, completely "recovering" from that and now have gone on 15 grand above it. And then Moses decides to start screaming about how abnormal that downturn was. Making post after post about how no real professional player would lose $29k in a week. Saying things like "he lost $400 on such and such a day, all he needs to do is lose 28,600 more to be a blackjack pro".


    Ding Ding Ding Bull Shit meter goes off again. You just complained about only making $187 in a month. Suddenly you jump $15K? STFU. Monstrous Liar. Little Queer. Damn, I'm going to out pace you this year and I'm not even a PRO. Of course, you won't have many places left to play once I get done with you.

    You don't have time to play because you can't get your ass off that forum. You're not posting the lengthy diatribes from a cell phone. Who are you kidding dip shit? I gave up playing to focus on you.
    Last edited by Moses; February 22nd, 2019 at 07:43 PM.

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    So what?
    Everyone has been on Mendelson for years about the 18 yos in a row.
    Mendelson posts up his 8/5 BP Free Play Videos and we all pile on him for making an average of 3 mistakes per 40 hands.
    We all rag on each other all the time.

    kewlJ started the whole Mendlebread thing!
    kewlJ constantly bashes on members about being old, hateful, jealous, Cousin Eddie whatever types all the time.
    Most of it is retaliation but nobody really cares.
    kewlJ constantly starts threads like: Dan Druff Shit or Get Off the Pot.
    You think these are good threads or titles of threads.
    Next he posts up in the Vegas Forum questions like: What are the Rules of this Forum?
    How many years have you been on this forum and you don't get the idea of what the rules are?
    kewlJ has said how many times he is leaving this Forum yet to come back??
    Now he is running to the police over some phony threats from Moses?
    If he would actually do what he said and left the Forum he would not be involved in this nonsense.
    He obviously likes it because he keeps posting up threads to piss on people or piss people off.

    kewlJ has constantly ragged on the Wiz and Qfit relentlessly.
    It is obvious that the rules are different for kewlJ when he doesn't like what is posted.
    How about we all just make some Mendlebread and let bygones be bygones.
    Or not. Whatever and Who Cares?

    Didn't kewlJ fake his own death?
    Where are the internet cops for that?
    Can you legally fake your own death on an internet forum?
    Someone should tell the police about that bullshit.

    What about Spiderman?
    Didn't kewlJ post up on Qfits website under the guise of Spiderman?
    Is that deceitful or lying?
    Once Qfit found out who Spiderman was didn't he banish him?
    Where are the internet police for that?

    Now lets all sit down and have our Two Minutes of Hate.

    Excellent post Monet: Spot on. I apologize, I shouldn't have interrupted your thread to spew on KJ. My logic? That thread was a quality topic but it has run it's course. Again, poor judgement on my part. But again, it was turning in a KJ eulogy or something.

    FWIW, it's worth I tried to look up this agency myself yesterday. I was going to point out many of these things, ironically, you just stated. But I couldn't find an email address or a phone number phone Metro Cyber. Please ask KJ to submit it, IF he has it.
    Last edited by Moses; February 23rd, 2019 at 09:12 AM.

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    Most of it was retaliating, why am I not surprised? Was he supposed to keep his mouth shut?

    Bosox replies to Monet:

    No Mr B. He should be smart enough to keep his mouth shut in the first place as you said earlier. A Country Western Song could be written about KJ.

    KJ wants to talk about KJ, about KJ, about KJ.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s84RFgwvsVo

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    How does anyone act when they are in a situation, do you know? I do not think anyone takes it lightly.

    Bosox writes to Monet ^:

    Good question. Most don't even think about it until the situation is right before them. Reno rule. "Keep your mouth shut. No need to look for trouble. IT will find you soon enough." Now, after learning the rules the hard way. I try to avoid as much as possible. But it's not always that easy. So when there is no other way out. I'm prepared to fight like a mean old junkyard dog. There is nowhere to run...and if you do? More chase.

    Now, there are a few, not many, but a few guys like me, that will break it up or jump in when someone can't defend themselves.

    But KJ can't keep his mouth shut. You can condemn me all you want for keeping in real. But "really" I'm not the one Queer J needs to worry about. It's the unknown lurker. Just like the guy in the sportsbook hollering racial slurs at the TV with some older brothers sitting behind him. Now, I ask you. Is it a coincidence that guy got his ass handed to him in a remote restroom? No, it was all a set up. I know the players and watched the whole thing go down. The older brothers never left the table or said a peep to the N word user.

    But I guess tender ears don't want to hear that on a forum. They want to talk about carrying thousands of dollars in their fanny packs and taping it under their clothes.

    Bosox. We've always been honest with each other. Sometimes times brutally honest. I don't understand your logic in defending KJ in a thread titled "Moses has been Banned." I never understood what it was you saw in KJ you like so much in the first place. It is because he plays shoes? But in this particular thread and it was Bosox instead of Moses? Hence, our roles were reversed. I'd be defending you to the max and no I wouldn't care if they banned me. Obviously.

    KJ follows with a lengthy diatribe to Monet.

    Bottom line is. There was no trouble on that forum while you were gone. And there has been no trouble here either. Granted, not many post. But you still managed to find your adversaries here as well.

    Now, you won't take my advice, and I hope you don't because I don't like you, and can see the clock is running out until you finally get yours. You cry about losing $29K and the brag about your miraculous recovery. The pit boss only reads or cares about the recovery part. The guy getting his ass handed to him and then is banned or broke to a point where he can't recover? Is going to blame YOU. If I learned two things. 1.) Don't expect help to bail you out of trouble. They don't care. 2.) Never, I MEAN NEVER mess with a guy who has nothing to lose. For some, jail is better than life on the streets. THAT is the guy YOU need to WORRY about. NOT me.



    Last edited by Moses; February 23rd, 2019 at 01:05 PM.

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    If you think Moses knows more about blackjack than KJ you are showing just how stupid you really are.

    Mickey writes:

    I will take that bet Mick: You be the house and play me in single deck my game. Be the house and play KJ double deck Hi LO. CASE CLOSED.

    But I still like you and respect you Mick.
    Last edited by Moses; February 23rd, 2019 at 05:27 PM.

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    Bosox. All the good works you done is admirable. You Sir, are the real deal IMO. KJ is a monstrous liar and a little queer. As Mick puts it, he continues to let his alligator mouth overload his hummingbird ass. So now he runs to the Cyber Police. They basically told him to shut up. HE didn't listen. Hmmm, what's wrong with this picture?

    You might want to take a pass on sticking up for this guy. I wouldn't want my handle tied into support of his silly ass contributions in any, way, shape, or form.

    Last edited by Moses; February 24th, 2019 at 11:00 AM.

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    Default Variance to Bob21;

    Bob. I'm only speaking to the single deck straight up game. I don't know or care about the rest. But I do KNOW THIS GAME.

    It was derived from my basketball background which spanned over 4 decades of playing, coaching, officiating. Winning is about control and controlling the tempo.

    High school. Suppose you win a game 100-88. There are several runs positive and negative during the course of that game. Plus most games are played on Friday and Saturday nights. So tired legs become a problem on the 2nd game. A 50-38 win achieves the same objective. The idea is ball control which reduces negative runs significantly. Keeping the other team on defense make it easy on the offense. Suppose you have a clear 20 foot jumper at the 7.13 mark. A high percentage shot for a good shooter. However, suppose you have a layup at the 6.05 mark. Almost a slam dunk by any player on the floor. Plus PLUS we kept the pressure on the defense for an additional 1.08. That is a long time to be playing man to man defense. Now, the opponent rushes their offense. Miss a bad shot and bam they are right back on defense. We never lost a game if we had a lead going into the 4th quarter because 1.) we were in great shape. 2,) we wore the opponent down. 3.) we were all high percentage free throw shooters.

    Okay, one more example and I'll move on to blackjack. Suppose I'm the lead guard with the ball on a 3 on 2 face break. I read the defense. Suppose I'm covered and the guy I know can handle my pass is heavily guarded. But the open guy is less talented and the ball may bounce off him out of bounds. Rather than take the risk on a pass or a decent percentage shot I can make? I pull back, set the offense, and make the opponent play defense for another minute or until the highest percentage is available. We WEAR them down.

    On to blackjack. Firstly, the card that breaks my hand is also a high percent chance to be the card to start my next hand. Suppose I have 15v10 with a 3+ RC. I stand on my $25 bet and wait for the next round. If smalls come out? Then I'm betting $75 on two hands for the next round. If large hold? Then I start my next hand with a 10 instead of breaking with a 25. Again, we are talking percentages here. Double downs in a negative deck. Saving the extra bet also gives me the option of additional cards as opposed to getting just one small. Splitting is also less than a normal dose. For one thing, there additional investment will not provide a blackjack or a double down opportunity. However, the investment saved for the next hand does offer the opportunity for a double down or blackjack. Also, splitting eats cards. Suppose you have a 77v5 after round 3. Now dealer shuffles at round 6 and shuffles away a positive large bet which would've been available at round 7 had I not split round 3. Suppose the first hand of the deck is 16vs10. I stand. IF I get 4 tens played vs 6, the next 5 or 6 rounds of that deck will be in negative territory. But if I stand and get a 10 as my first card of the next hand I have a better chance at playing even or getting a large bet at the end of the deck.

    These are a few things one does to reduce variance. Why is this so important? Because the spread allowance in minimal and casino tolerance is higher. Therefore, it's like winning when a coach doesn't have as much talent as the opponent. If you have the lead and the ball? Don't give up the ball. Take high quality shots. Hence, make your large bets count and run your offense to get in position to make the best large bets possible. The key to winning today and playing tomorrow is to not fall too far behind in the first place. Get in. Get paid. Get out. Large comebacks are not good because once money is lost the casino considers it their money. For example, supposed you go down $500 and win back $500 to break even in a session. In your mind you broke even. The casino sees it as you winning $500 because your first $500 loss became their money.
    It's the accumulation of betting low quality plays and not getting high percentage plays is usually what throws one behind in the first place.

    Now KJ will go into a rant on this, even though he has no experience at this game.

    It's a game of people played with cards. Quality/safe play = decent pay. Greedy pay = no play. No play = No Pay.
    Last edited by Moses; April 17th, 2019 at 02:51 AM.

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    Default More stupid shit from fucking queers

    Quote Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    And here is Moses response to the discussion on blackjack variance, in it's entirety, word for word:
    "I'm only speaking to the single deck straight up game. I know now or care about the rest. But I do KNOW THIS GAME.
    It was derived from my basketball background was spanned over 4 decades of playing, coaching, officiating.
    High school. Suppose you win a game 100-88. There are several runs positive and negative during the course of that game. Plus most games are played on Friday and Saturday nights. So tired legs become a problem on the 2nd game. A 50-38 win achieves the same objective. The idea is ball control which reduces negative runs significantly. Keeping the other team on defense make it easy on the offense. Suppose you have a clear 20 foot jumper at the 7.13 mark. A high percentage shot for a good shooter. However, suppose you have a layup at the 6.05 mark. Almost a slam dunk by any player on the floor. Plus PLUS we kept the pressure on the defense for an additional 1.08. That is a long time to be playing man to man defense. Now, the opponent rushes their offense".


    I gave you mathematical formulas generated by the top blackjack math guys with the use of computers to back up everything I said and my results. Moses responded with a story of some high school basketball player taking a jump shot at the 7 minute mark of a basketball game. Nonsense from the twilight zone that has nothing to do with nothing.

    I am done with you now Moses and all your sock puppets, alter-egos and various multiple personalities. Enjoy your life and all your ahhh...friends.
    It wasn't word for word. You got too excited and posted before I finished. Just like you do when you get fucked in the ass which is everyday at the casinos and every night by Keystone. That's why you're a loser at the casinos and in life. You lack discipline and patience.

    Fuck you. Play me then you Little Arrogant Prick. That's a LAP Bob. Just tell the fucking queer to take a LAP when he rants from now on.

    Thank God you're finally going to shut up. I don't need some queer as bastard messing in my business. But you won't. You never do.

    Good to know I'm in Keystone's head so early in the morning. Friggin ploppy ass loser. Sticking his nose in something where he has no clue. What else is new?
    Last edited by Moses; April 17th, 2019 at 07:52 AM.

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    Bob. THE SDSU (single deck straight up) game is about advantage not thresholds. Fuck KJ and is "math." Many of his threshold plays will never balance in his lifetime and he is too fuckin stupid to see an advantage play. It could bite him in the ass and he wouldn't know it. That THAT is why he goes on these forums and cries about losses. He spends so much time on forums writes lengthy diatribes of gay rants he doesn't have enough time to fight variance. So as Don S put it on Blackjack info, he read some paper somewhere and now he think he is an expert.

    For example, let's take 10 vs 10. Firstly, doubling on this hand will only happen with a large bet out. Now, the SIM result is very slight or a threshold. Something like 45.10% wins 44.9% loss and 10% ties. However, if the high to low card ratio is above 60% remaining and at least 2 Aces remain the advantage jump to 55% win 37% loss 8% ties. Why? Think about it. We know the Ace isn't under the 10 or dealer would've flip over a blackjack and we'd all be having a good cry as our large bet chips slide over from the circle to the tray. The majority of large bets are going to come late in the deck. So yes, the ratio of Aces, tens, nines vs other cards that still remain is very high. I'm not saying you will always win. I'm saying you're now playing with an advantage which is why you should've sat down to play in the first place. Now walk away because you're afraid of losing.

    Hence, if you don't WANT to ball when the game is on the line? You haven't spent enough time in the gym.

    Okay, I have 3 different counts that I employ. No, not at the same time. Back to basketball illustrate. I was equally quick going to my right or left. So the defenders position of this feet determine my direction. It used to drive coach crazy because I appeared unpredictable. The consistency was out of my control and at the opposition feet. So, if his right foot is too far forward? I'm faking to my right and exploding to my left. By the time he gets that foot back, I'm already two steps ahead of him.

    Back to blackjack. The count depends on the dealer and the pit. IF a dealer is only giving 6 rounds, I'm looking at a deck composition strong in large cards but also weak in 5,6. This gives me more large bet opportunities than a column count. A time saver, if you will. IF a dealer is giving 7 rounds and the pit tension is and EITS tolerance is low, then a column count is employed. This allows me to duck out of some bad deck composition, such as when the 2-4s are nearly exhausted but half of the 5-7s remain. I rarely play this way anymore because I limit myself to 20 sessions a week. Hence, if it were basketball I'm not playing the best teams in the league. I playing the weakest. Now, if a dealer is giving 7 rounds and casino tolerance is low, then I include the 2 and 8 in my tag values which provides more plays. However, not quite the quality of a column count. But it doesn't matter because time is of the essence more than money. Why? Because my opponent can't take a hit without quitting. Sort of like KJ and Keystone.

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    Default Bob and Redeitz Don S writes to KJ

    Bob and Redeitz:

    I thought this was interesting at Post 8 at blackjackinfo under the thread titled Changing System questioning SCORE;

    Don S writes to KJ: You have a different understanding of my comments than you ought to. You read a single article, which you now take as the Holy Grail, and have decided that, because someone wrote something that you've interpreted as you see fit, it applies to every human being on the face of the earth, and THAT's just plain ignorant.

    I wonder if Don S is now a troll.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
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    So to wrap up my comments regarding variance yesterday:

    Basketball and Blackjack are games with rules:

    For me Sessions in blackjack are like a schedule of games in basketball. Except I make out the schedule of games to play each day with the easiest opponents.

    What I do during the sessions is compete which is an extension from my experience and exhaustive work from CV Data and Verite. Same thing in basketball. Preparation and practice are key and the flexibility to make adjustments during the game are crucial.

    My players are the tag values assigned to the cards. This is my point of contention because in victory, no one questions. But in loss, the question lingers, is it the players or the coach. So the shots aren't dropping? At $25 a pop it takes strong mental fortitude to keep shooting. But again, are the shots not dropping because of variance or do I have just have bad shooters and players. In other words, are the tag values line up to compete at the highest level possible without sacrificing efficiency? Perhaps the never ending question with no answer?

    Part of the answer is, when betting more, to take the very best shots possible. Limited spreads and casino tolerance are the primary and absolute reasoning for making this essential.

    The difference between the two games is in basketball you get praised, rewarded, even glorified for winning. In blackjack, it's the opposite. Plus it's recorded as a lifetime loss when the opponent forfeits in blackjack. In basketball, forfeits are rare, but easy victories. Just the opposite.

    Therefore, in order to compete at the SDSU game for an extended period of time one must reduce variance. There is no choice in the matter. However, in order reduce variance, one first must first determine where the largest portions of fluctuation in money are coming from. Therefore, in cutting down on thresholds that result in long term EV, you must reduce that small amount of return for large amount of fluctuation in money. Otherwise, there is no game to play because the opponent forfeits.
    Last edited by Moses; April 18th, 2019 at 09:15 AM.

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