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Thread: Variance for today's game and new rules

  1. #46
    Join Date
    Sep 2017


    Sharky: As I recall, you're a pretty sharp NFL handicapper. Someone said the other day, the reason my win bet percentage is so high is because I always bet a lot and just take the “easy” games.

    Well, “duh.”

    Most games look easy after they've been played. The key is to identify them “before” they are played AND that takes work and tons of research (or inside info.)

    I suppose if shoe games is all that is offered in your area, then, if you choose to play, you also choose to “deal with it” because deck compositions are unrecognizable without a Tarzan count or minimized with Wong Halves. I choose “not” to deal with a high degree of variance by ducking out of poor deck compositions. This brings me to a very important question because I value your opinion. Do you think Don S wrote all those books so players could simply “deal with it”? Or could they view it as a valuable tool to fight what others deal with? The forum rhetoric is very confusing. So I don't know. THAT is why I'm asking you.

    Now, with all due respect, I'm the house with a deck of 47 middle cards and only 5 large os no big deal? You are not going to see my hole card. You will not get a double down opportunity. You are going to have a ton of hands with 15 and 16. Your opportunities for a blackjack are minimal in comparison to a regular deck. The strategy in that would have to be far more than normal standing and hope the dealer busts. In the words of Ernest T Bass. NO THANK YOU Mrs. Wiley.

    I'm sure we both agree in sports betting, given the choice, it's better to not bet and win than to bet and lose. The former is nothing ventured nothing gained or LOST. The latter results in a loss of money. Yes, you have to bet in order win. But does that mean bet all 16 games every week? Of course not. It means you research and picked your best opportunities. Let's say you bet 2 games a week. Essentially, you ducked out of 14. Nothing wrong with that and you're approach is absolutely correct. I've simply taken the the same theory to blackjack. Yes, I know how to swat. But, more importantly, I also know when to duck.

    Would I say I hope this upcoming NFL season brings you good variance? No, that what be an insult to your intelligence, skills, and years of experience. But I do wish you well and hope you enjoy another profitable season as you've done many times in the past.
    Last edited by Moses; August 18th, 2019 at 07:11 PM.

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