+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 44

Thread: Variance for today's game and new rules

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default Freighter writes:

    Playing basketball in the school yard, or counting cards as a newbie, neither individual knows what the future will bring, or wheather their dreams will come true and that they will elevate themselves to the top of the talent pool. Both endeavours require acute mental toughness.

    There is a point in time that the aspiring ball player knows, or the card counter knows, that they have the right stuff.

    Excellent post Freighter: Usually something in life puts you in the school yard or counting cards. I'm not talking the typical games on a Saturday afternoon in the Spring. I'm talking about the kid who shovels snow off the court during Christmas vacation. In blackjack, I'm not talking about the player who reads a forum and buys a book. It's the person willing to maximize Norm's products.

    Zee has said many times he walks away from positive counts because he is afraid he might lose his profits. Some players would rather be in the stands or on the bench when the game is on the line. In basketball, the right stuff means you want the ball in those situations. In blackjack, it's the moment you've been waiting for. In both cases, it's a matter of letting the game come to you and the making sure your opponent finishes 2nd. That comes with discipline, patience, and hard work.

    This is why guys like you and I can tell jokes on a forum. We realize that is the locker room. The real game is on the hardwoods or at the tables.
    Last edited by Moses; June 3rd, 2019 at 09:37 AM.

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default Notes to self

    This will make little or no sense to anyone but Freighter and Gronbog. Maybe T3/Tarzan But it's something I've been working on this week and it's been a JOB!

    Years ago, I started a thread regarding 14,15,16vs 7,8,9. What to do? For years, this question has lingered in my head and at the tables. IT's seems you're damned if you hit and damned if you don't. Today, the answer is to the bigger question of What "not" to do?

    So, going back to Coaches strategy of don't take bad shots. Actually it was "take only the best shot." Looking at the single deck as a whole - not just one hand. IF I'm taking Aces out of the deck to get 15,16,17s and taking 10s out to bust? Coach would be hurling a clipboard at my head if it were basketball. Why? Because quite often the last card played in a hand is or would be the first card played in the next hand. Don S planted this idea a couple years ago in a thread about how the advantages would rise IF one could start their hand with an Ace or a 10. I realize this is contrary to popular belief and a reason I'm here at Zen Zone instead of in the Blue cult at BJTF.

    But I don't care what Flash or Norm think. Spending a weekend here 3 decades ago does not put one in the position of authority of how the single deck game works in todays rules and conditions. Moving here and surviving day in day out for nearly a decade provide a far better perspective. Plus I don't think any of them really have a crystal ball. It's for damn sure their quarters aren't going in my circle.

    Again, Norm's products are great. But I've dug deeper to find more value in them than perhaps he even realizes exists. For instance, the forum world, or should I say questions from Zee, revolve around thresholds. This is great if you're going to live to be 200 and play 10 million hands in your lifetime. However, the bigger question, in a game of people played with cards is "when does the threshold drop to a disadvantage"? So on these indices, it's not about when to stand and win. It's about when to stand, not get hurt, and IMPROVE your position. The answer will vary from the card tag values assigned and the willingness to fire up CV Data, utilize a spreadsheet, and dig below the surface. I'm still working on it. But have to admit I'm surprised by the results and a little embarrassed it took me this long to have this revelation.

    T3, to answer your question of couple of years ago. For one thing, there isn't enough money in it to worry about all indices. For instance, hitting 15 vs 3 to gain $7 (according to CV Data results) over the course of 50k is no guarantee and brings more harm than good to your game. The game isn't just about you. It's about the dealer too. We can't win without pen. IF I'm hitting odd hands and winning, I very well could be putting my dealer under scrutiny for not preferential shuffling. Plus these type indices will all occur on a minimum bet. Can I live without hitting the 12v6 in my game? $25 over 50k hands is not worth the comments from dealers. So the small game indices is really about 13 vs 2,3 and 12v4 maybe 5 and 14 vs 2 if you want to get cute. Otherwise, it does more harm than good "in today's game."

    Limit your splits when you cannot DAS. For one thing, it's impossible to get a blackjack 3 to 2 payoff. It IS possible to get a blackjack or double down on your next hand for the same amount invested.

    Be prudent on Double downs. There is a better threshold than the line drawn for those willing to find it. Why? Because it's not going down that hurts your game (in your opponents eyes) it's the roaring comeback. Consider that it's not paying double for 1 card in an extremely negative deck. It's about saving the bet and having the option to hit 2 or more cards. So, the best answer is not to take unnecessary risks that put you too far behind in the first place. Necessary risks? Yes, of course you'd take those or you'd draw more scrutiny with a winning game. It's not always about IF you win but HOW you win.
    Last edited by Moses; June 13th, 2019 at 10:07 AM.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default Math

    16; There are only 16 cards in at deck that will improve that hand. 32 cards will break that hand. That is a 2 to 1 ratio and BS says to Hit? In a straight up game do you really want to hit to get an Ace for 17. Or Stand to start your next hand with an Ace with the potential of a 3 to 2 return.

    14,15,16v10; 27 cards in the hole and the dealers stands. 20 cards and the dealer is forced to hit. An Ace in the hole, there is no option, only tears.
    14,15,16v9: 27 cards in the hole and the dealer stands. 24 cards and the dealer is forced to hit.
    14,15,16v8: 24 cards in the hole and the dealer stands. 27 cards and the dealer is forced to hit.
    14,15,16v7 20 cards in the hole and the dealer stands. 31 cards and the dealer is forced to hit.
    14,15,16vA: 12 cards in the hole and the dealer stands (without a blackjack). 20 cards and the dealer is forced to hit. H17 game.

    15; There are 20 cards in a deck that will improve this hand to 17. 28 that will break it. An Ace get you to 16.
    14: There are 20 cards in a deck that will improve this hand to 17. 20 that will break it. An Ace gets 15 and 2 gets 16.

    A major part of the variance comes from hitting with the odds of you breaking. Hence, we break before the dealer moves.

    With 12: There are only 16 cards that will break this hand. 32 will improve it. An Ace gets you to 13. A 2 to 1 ratio of hitting. Yet we stand on 4,5,6 for the most part.
    Quite often, the card we don't take gives the dealer enough to stop between 17 and 21.

    With 13: There are 20 cards that will break this hand. 28 will improve it. An Ace gets you to 14. Even on opening hand of 7,6vs3 is 22 that will improve and 20 will break.

    No wonder we have variance. We are hitting against the odds.

    So, for example, what kind of math formula tell us to hit 16 vs 7? We break 67% of the time before the dealer moves. The dealer is forced to hit 60% of the time and only stand 40%. I'm curious, where is the math in that? And even when we hit, a 6 or 7 still breaks the hand. According to CV Data, these are all losing hands ranging from 70% to 85% of the time. Racking our brains to find the best standing point won't even improve our odds by 1/2%.

    There are 20 10s and Aces in a 52 card deck. The math of getting one as the first card of your hand is 38.46%. It would be great if Don S could wrap his mind around this and put a formula to it for a straight up player. Perhaps a chapter in his next book?

    The reason the SCORE is low on CV Data, yet results are good with Verite and at the casino is because even if the hand busts on CV Data, the dealer still completes his hand (according to view logs). This doesn't happen in the actual game. Therefore, SCORE cannot determine the difference or extra value (as Don S puts it) of starting my next hand with an Ace or 10.

    Therefore, according to CV Data, instead of standing at an extremely high TC to eek out a few extra dollars a year. Stand where the line breaks between a threshold and a disadvantage of losing a few dollars a year to losing a significant amount. Generally this is around the RC 2 to 4 range. Given the fact that pen is shortened for the days of yesteryear, it's even more vital a player doesn't take 10 and Aces out of the deck on hands with little or no chance of winning.
    Last edited by Moses; June 15th, 2019 at 10:43 AM.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default How did Mr. Griffen come up with EoR figures

    What formula was used to determine EoR way back when NFL defenses were puzzled as to how to contain Fran Tarkenton?

    The 5 will take either the players or dealers hand to a stop from 12 at 17 to 21 from 16. So the importance of the 5 is relevant because it has 5 options from 12 to 17.

    But the 2? Why is that relevant? It will take a 15 to a 17. And that's it.

    The 3 will take the player or dealer from 14 to 16 to reach 17,18,19. 3 options

    The 7 will take the player or dealer from 12 to 14 to reach 19,21,21. 3 options.

    The 4 and the 6 offer 4 options.

    The 8 is valued which throws a monkey wrench into the system. Hi Opt II says to side count the 7. Why not just drop the 2? The 2 and the 8 should be the same tags values. The question is whether is should be 0 or 1/2. No way can the 2 be given the same tag values as the 5 as it is in HiLO. Thus the extreme variance.

    So I ask myself two questions? Do I believe in a book that was written in the 70s for a game the has had considerable changes? Or do I believe in SCORE which was developed by someone voted by his peers to be in the Blackjack Hall of Fame and has authored 3 books? I believe in SCORE because I've ran hundreds of sims with variations of card tag values and rules. SCORE suffers when value is added to the 8. SCORE improves (in single deck) when more value is assigned to the 7 than the 2. Whether the 2 is valued at 0 or 1/2 point it doesn't make much difference.

    Also, SCORE improves when the Ace is assigned -1.5 value. But Don S advises against giving the Ace a higher tag value than the 10. In fact, he downright hates the idea. My experience is it creates a more volatile rollercoaster ride. Even if I can handle it, the question is can the pit? So, the practical solution is 2 at 0 and Ace at -1 instead of 2 at .5 and Ace at -1.5. No?
    Last edited by Moses; June 15th, 2019 at 09:58 AM.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    Ahem! That's hundreds every quarter! :-) Why just last month, the first quarter payment was $259, and that's before we tacked on another $94 for the BS cards. Yearly revenues on pace to crack $1,000! (And don't you just LOVE it when people accuse me of quoting chapters and pages from the book just to hype sales!!)

    Don

    So why did you write not one, not two, but three books. Maybe 4th in works? Your readers might want to know. Leaves it open for a lot of speculation. No? I know personally someone who wrote a NY Times bestseller. It was a ton of work, even as a family project. Publishers and proof readers usually don't come cheap?
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 08:56 AM.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default Insult? Hardly.

    Bosox writes:
    One idea that has a strong consensus "I believe without speculating" is that the island resident has his head screwed on backward. Is there anyone in the community that he has not insulted at one time or another?



    Don S is a brilliant guy with a strong work ethic. At least, that is my opinion from everything I've read. Therefore, the question that others are afraid to ask, might be why would you do this for peanuts? Clearly, Don S time and knowledge could've been invested for a far better return. No? I think it's a fair question that Don would appreciate and want to answer.

    Yes, there are tons of posters who I have not insulted. But come at me Bosox. I'm coming back at you. It just seems like alot because there are so many puppets.

    For instance, Don could probably make far more money writing a financial newsletter with far less stress and headaches. HE could put together stock and mutual portfolios to adapt to market trends based on age, risk tolerance, and investment horizon etc, etc. He's got a strong built in following just from within the blackjack community. Let alone his years of experience, talents, and his highly regarded reputation in the financial markets.
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 09:17 AM.

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default Bosox Insults Don S

    Actually, you and KJ continue to insult Don S by undermining his hard work by continuing to profess that all you need is HiLO, a strong wallet, and a high threshold to variance. Don S saw this years ago and switched to Felt/RPC to gain significantly and improve all 3 barometers considerably. Then, he went on to develop SCORE which is far more powerful than the 3 barometers of BC,PE, IC. YOU rarely even play and KJ cries when he loses and brags when he wins. THERE IS NO CRYING IN BLACKJACK! And shouldn't be any bragging. Just play the damn game.

    A couple of examples of reducing variance in single deck straight up. 3 columns read left to right is 9-As 5-7s 2-4s played.

    Okay, suppose you have 11-6-9 and 3 Aces played. Not a great deck composition but still offers a decent TC. The problem is only one Ace left in the deck and still 50% of the 5-7s remain. This is NOT a deck composition that is going pay dividends more often than not. So, you've not only put more dollars at risk, but you've potentially drawn unwanted attention by chasing rainbows the opposition doesn't know are not colorful.

    Now, suppose your deck composition is 6-6-5 no Aces played. Not bad. But you know there are more hands to be played. So you play it light and get 9-8-9 with only 1 Ace played. Bam, that's the one you "wanted"...and it would've got shuffled away had you not "waited."

    You two knotheads think I won't play you for black chips? Bring it on!
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 11:47 AM.

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    330

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Actually, you and KJ continue to insult Don S by undermining his hard work that all you need is HiLO, a strong wallet, and a high threshold to variance. Don S saw this years ago and switched to Felt/RPC to gain significantly and improve all 3 barometers considerably.
    Complete bullshit as usual, you homeless bitter old fool.

    Don didn't switch from hi-lo to RPC. Both Don and I believe Norm learned RPC first (Norm directly from Revere) and so they stuck with what they learned first.

    BUT Don has said in recent years that if he was starting out today...he would play hi-lo or another simple level one count.

    Funny how you leave that...the most important part out. And funny how you revise history to suit yourself like with the "Don switched from hi-lo to RPC" lie.
    Last edited by KewlJ; June 17th, 2019 at 11:54 AM.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    Complete bullshit as usual, you homeless bitter old fool.

    Don didn't switch from hi-lo to RPC. Both Don and I believe Norm learned RPC first (Norm directly from Revere) and so they stuck with what they learned first.

    BUT Don has said in recent years that if he was starting out today...he would play hi-lo or another simple level one count.

    Funny how you leave that...the most important part out. And funny how you revise history to suit yourself like with the "Don switched to hi-lo" lie.

    Firstly, as for me being homeless? That's a lie. Put your money where your mouth is queer bait. As for me being old? I'm still young enough to whip your sassy little ass. I'd spank you so hard, your mother would cry.

    Fact is, Don S switched to HiLO after one year of play and stayed with Felt as did Norm. Even if Don S did play HILO today. I doubt he would cry after losing. Let alone on a forum.

    As for me being a fool? Play me you chicken shit!

    Furthermore, why employ or profess to employ HiLO on forums, if you're not going to play. Or if you're just going to run around Vegas like a flaming fag in a fantasy world. Then why would you need to buy and read Don S book? Just cry when you lose and lie about winning. Seems to work for KJ the great. Now, if someone is actually a serious shoe competitor, then there is certainly a high value in Don S book. No?

    Of course one could just go to a camp for a week, spend $3k, and make millions.
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 12:48 PM.

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    330

    Default

    I have never "cried" about any blackjack losses, asswipe.

    What I have done is shared my experiences as a mid-level professional player and that includes both losses and wins so that other players playing mid-level stakes might understand the wins and losses and swings that are common, normal and should be expected at this level of play.

    And every real player playing these levels can relate to both wins and losses in the 5 figure range that sometimes occur. Only a $5, red chip player playing low limit games in Reno can't seem to grasp and relate to this.

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    I have never "cried" about any blackjack losses, asswipe. .
    A few years, you lost $20k in a day and didn't know if you could return. Cried about for weeks at BJTF. Recently, you lost $29k in a week. Poor poor KJ always the victim. What a pathetic loser!
    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    What I have done is shared my experiences as a mid-level professional player and that includes both losses and wins so that other players playing mid-level stakes might understand the wins and losses and swings that are common, normal and should be expected at this level of play..
    Here is a word you can't understand. IT's called WORK. With Norm's products and books by Don S, there is no reason NOT to be competitive. You're just lazy, arrogant, and stupid.

    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    And every real player playing these levels can relate to both wins and losses in the 5 figure range that sometimes occur. Only a $5, red chip player playing low limit games in Reno can't seem to grasp and relate to this.
    Play me for black chips then. That "real" enough for you? You can't possibly be chasing variance...you're always crying on a forum. Pay up on your bets LOSER! Homeless? Not! $11 per game? NOT! $5 red chipper? NOT me. For once in your pathetic life put your money where your mouth is before someone slaps that stupid looking haircut right off your head.

    BTW, I ran into Tater today as I was placing a bet. HE's not real fond of your condescending attitude toward homeless people. Mainly himself with you thinking you're better than him. Anytime, you're feelin a bit froggy you just jump right in. His words. Not mine. Personally, I wouldn't want to mess with the guy. I've heard he mauls guys like a big ole grizzly bear and it takes 2 or 3 to pull him off. Better you, than me.
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 07:42 PM.

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    330

    Default

    Yeah, you "ran into Tater"....in your mind.

    I have Don's book and Norm's software. Despite any bad personal feelings I have had for Norm at times, I have always endorsed and praised his software. So don't tell me.

    The fact is blackjack card counting is a game that involves high variance. Any real player KNOWS this. I am not surprised you don't. So I lost 20k one day years ago? So I lost 29k in a week last fall? I am up 85 grand since that week! That is exactly what variance is!

    Now speaking of "real"...can you name one real person in this community, meaning not a sock puppet or figment of your imagination that has even a little bit of respect for you and doesn't think you are a complete ass?? Maybe you should think about THAT.
    Last edited by KewlJ; June 17th, 2019 at 08:19 PM.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    Yeah, you "ran into Tater"....in your mind.

    I have Don's book and Norm's software. Despite any bad personal feelings I have had for Norm at times, I have always endorsed and praised his software. So don't tell me.

    The fact is blackjack card counting is a game that involves high variance. Any real player KNOWS this. I am not surprised you don't.

    Now speaking of "real"...can you name one real person in this community, meaning not a sock puppet or figment of your imagination that has even a little bit of respect for you and doesn't think you are a complete ass?? Maybe you should think about THAT.
    Freighter. Bob21. Blitzer. I think I got along okay with most at VCT. Alan, Rob etc etc. Most at BJTF. Hard to tell with so many puppets in the BLUE Oyster CULT. For starters. Do you think I really care what queers and halfwit dipshits think about me? It's not congeniality contest you simple minded fruitcake. This is about WINNING! You're a liar and a pathetic loser. Always have been. Always will be.

    Yes, I ran into Tater in the flesh. You don't endorse Norms products to improve your game. You WORK with them. What a friggin queertard! GET IN THE REAL WORLD YOU SIMPLE MINDED GED NITWIT!

    BTW, you had your chance to let it go. But you couldn't. Now you've got me in your face for life. It's only the tip of the iceberg. You're running out of places to run and hide. Maybe YOU should think about THAT! Queertard.
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 08:42 PM.

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    330

    Default

    You are completely insignificant to me (and everyone else in the blackjack and AP community). You are pretty much just a bug on the windshield.

    BUT I have to admit that I enjoy seeing you so consumed with hate, bitterness and jealousy that you continually make an even bigger ass of yourself almost every day.

  15. #30
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    1,282

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KewlJ View Post
    You are completely insignificant to me (and everyone else in the blackjack and AP community). You are pretty much just a bug on the windshield.

    BUT I have to admit that I enjoy seeing you so consumed with hate, bitterness and jealousy that you continually make an even bigger ass of yourself almost every day.
    Just keep talkin asshole. It's great motivation. I can't wait to see the look on your face when I'm done watching you from a distance. You're such a friggin pussy. It's going to be hilarious for me. And then, not so much fun for you.
    Last edited by Moses; June 17th, 2019 at 09:09 PM.

+ Reply to Thread

Similar Threads

  1. There's no way around the variance
    By Moses in forum Modern Blackjack
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: June 29th, 2019, 01:27 PM
  2. Bad Variance, My Personal Evolutionary Catalyst
    By Lady Tthree in forum Voodoo & Unconfirmed Gambling Systems
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: September 20th, 2016, 12:17 AM
  3. The Roman Empire Still Rules Today
    By Katz in forum History, Secret or Otherwise
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: January 11th, 2016, 04:50 AM
  4. Obey The Rules? What Rules?
    By Katweezel in forum Anything Else But
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: May 24th, 2012, 09:10 PM
  5. Lab Rules
    By Katweezel in forum Anything Else But
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: March 21st, 2012, 04:07 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts