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Thread: OUT with the OLD: IN with the NEW:

  1. #1
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    Default OUT with the OLD: IN with the NEW:

    After literally spending years sifting through the bull at BJTF I've arrived at then end with final conclusions.

    1.) Stay away from 6.5 blackjack.

    2.) Stay from shoes.

    3.) Focus on single deck and double deck games with as few at the table as possible.

    4.) Play within casino tolerance. Do not exceed 8% in large bet frequency.

    5.) Do not drive more than an hour to play blackjack in a day. Do not fly or drive 3 hours to a city without at least 5 casinos that offer blackjack.

    6.) Do not play if not at least 60% pen. Do not play with more than 2 players double deck. 1 player single deck.

    CV Data is a useful tool.

    However, your count should equal 48. Hence, 24 on the negative side and 24 on the positive in order to combat today's game with the reduction of pen.

    Why? 48 is the only number you can divide equally by 24,16,12,8,4,and 2. Therefore you can get exact ratios. No more guessing. What is played equals what still remains to be played.

    Consider your base to be 940 BC, 545 PE, 650 IC as your base. Do not go below your based when running sims. Do not give the Ace -1.5 credit. IT proved a top SCORE but you'll find it to be a horrible solution when you test drive it on Verite.

    Move your Ace for insurance purposes. Do not worry about it on the other plays.

    Last but not least - MATTHEW 23.12.

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    You cannot impose stop limits on the win side and chase on the loss side. A sure loser long term.

    It is my experience that a competent player will win ~60% of his sessions and that the amount of his average win or loss will be about equal. Artificially, skewing these makes winning harder, not easier.

    It is better to confine your limits to time played being less than an hour rather than dollar amounts.

    As an example, if my experience is correct:

    Sessions Results Totals
    Win 60 500 30,000.00
    Lose 40 -1000 (40,000.00)
    NET (10,000.00)


    Chasing loses in amounts greater than your max win is disasterous.

    Stealth writes:


    Moses replies: Of course you lose money if your stop loss limit doubles your stop win limited. Keep them the same. Now your show a profit of $10K. Playing time depends on casino tolerance. If you have game your playing time will lessen. If you DON'T have game, and the OP does NOT, then knock yourself out. It won't matter. Game selection is key. When the game you selected no longer meets your standards then leave.

    Your win stop should be based on the casino tolerance for their loss stop. Your loss stop should also be based on the casino tolerance for their loss stop. Now, you have a level playing field.

    The OPs first problem is a level one count for double deck is simply not going to work with todays restrictions. The 2nd problem is he needs to realize this game is work unless you just like to lose money for entertainment and have it to lose. Many do.

    Also, for example, a 2.5 TC rounded is virtually the same as a 2 TC floored or truncated.

    Minimum bet indices don't do shit except get you in trouble. Except 16,15vs10. Large bet indices like 10,11,14vs10 are crucial as is Insurance.

    So break out your CV Data. Run sims. Take the best SCORES for a test drive on Verite and stop asking dumb questions. These guys do not know you so they will only confuse you with generalizations and tricks like on the chart above. You'd better know YOU or you're in deep shit.

    Last edited by Moses; December 23rd, 2018 at 10:03 AM.

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    Too many people just focus on the long run and fail to understand what they can do to make the short run more steady.

    T3 writes:

    Moses replies: Because you and Flash preached about the long run forever. T3 and the almighty EV. Balance is your key. If it doesn't work today, what makes you think it will work tomorrow? These are cards not rubber balls. If you don't have enough game to beat Verite exactly the way you play in a casino in the quiet and privacy of your home. What makes you think you can suddenly beat them in the hustle and bustle of a casino?

    Stop listening to these guys that boast profits without work ethic. They are lying to you, and more importantly, to themselves. This is WORK. The most difficult job in my lifetime. But the benefits are great.

    Last edited by Moses; December 23rd, 2018 at 10:04 AM.

  4. #4
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    Default What count system do you use and why?

    Seriously? You are going to take advice from someone you've never net, on the net, with a highly volatile investment of money, and more importantly, YOUR TIME? I know my broker better than most of my family members and I still don't follow his advice. I'm sorry, but IF you're going to compete at this game, you're going to have to figure that answer out for yourself.

    Sim for SCOREs, play them out on Verite, and see what fits YOU. Put on your big boy pants and GO TO WORK. There IS no shortcut. Only loss of time and money when you take them.

  5. #5
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    Default How Do You Know If You Are Actually as Good as You Think You Are

    When you don't have to ask this stupid question. I'm as good as I need to be.

    C'mon Midwest Player. Put on your Big Boy pants this winter, go to WORK, and IMPROVE your game.

    Stop being a false profit! Leading people to believe this endeavor is easy and you just magically make money. You balk at a $50 car rental for crissake.

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    The count, your amount of bet, your next move is all that should matter. You are really overthinking.

    All of the above is voodoo. You can't will wins and losses. For relevant statistics, see pp. 298-301 of BJA3. You play, you have an hourly win rate, you amass hours. Period. The OP's scenario is NOT a recipe for disaster if he is a legitimate card counter. It's just a stupid waste of one's time to leave a playing opportunity prematurely. So, he is limiting playing time; he isn't affecting win rate (dollars won per hours played).

    Finally, if you play any session of any given length, average win, when you win, should always be higher than average loss, when you lose, in addition to having more winning sessions than losing ones. That, of course, is based on a stopping algorithm of always playing a fixed amount of time. You can "force" more losing sessions than winning ones, by a stupid quitting scheme, but that doesn't influence one iota your global win rate. How could it possibly??

    Don


    Moses replies: It's still a game of people played with cards. Anyway you slice it, one cannot chase EV if they are not allowed to play. You've got to be the one in control and not allow them to take control. It easy to stop a loss, downswing, or limit a losing session. Simply walk away. But capping an upswing, win, or a winning sessions? Easier said than done. But one thing is for sure. If they cap it for you? In the words of Apollo Creed, "this IS no tomorrow. there IS no tomorrow."
    Last edited by Moses; December 24th, 2018 at 02:54 PM.

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    Default Tarzan post. Worth Noting.

    Tarzan writes; If Gronbog can simulate T count, it's safe to say it's little he can't do. There was an immense amount of work on that project. Verifying the values being plugged was as difficult and detail-oriented as it gets, considerably more trouble than actually learning or performing the method, which is from a practical application standpoint the maximum gain and efficiency with the least amount of mental strain, arriving at near perfect play. That's what it takes to outperform HiOpt2ASC and anything short of that isn't going to cut it. I'm not saying what you're doing isn't good or effective, or discourage you in any way, and merely saying it's relatively certain it won't outperform HiOptASC, with this coming from someone who has intimate familiarity with what it takes to outperform HiOpt2ASC. Gronbog doing a simulation for you would give you a definitive answer on your enhancements compared to everything else, much better than just speculation.

    Moses replies; The problem is by the time one actually outperforms the other? You could be dead. Too bad Gronbog has no interest in bottling and selling his program. I'd fly to his location and pay 10 times the amount of CV Data for a Sim customized to fit my game. Think about it G?

    Most of your money made from card counting is derived from your bet spread and optimal betting. Everything after that is just gravy, slight gains that are tiny fractions of a percentage point, worth going for with some, not worth bothering with for others.

    Excellent point. Yet forum rhetoric is all about slight gains that may or may not happen during our lifetime of play.

    The illustrious 18 was devised for maximum gain using the least effort, getting the most of it. The tiniest fraction of a percentage point is a lot if there's a large enough volume of money involved, though, so nothing wrong with trying to maximize your theoretical edge. You can run this out to its greatest extent even, with the most difficult composition dependent index possible for the least gain involved if you want to, where the difference in EV can be as little as .0001 between three possible playing decisions, to either hit, split, or double given the right deck composition, which will have virtually no impact on a simulation, but is still just a hell of a lot of fun if you are hardcore enough. Can you guess the hand?

    Probably not. I could care less about most thresholds on minimum bets. My time is better served discovering true advantages (with a max bet) and then improving my position on same.
    Last edited by Moses; December 27th, 2018 at 11:25 AM.

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    What you saying is true for single deck and double deck games. For shoe games 6-8 deck it is possible to outperform Hi-OPT II with ASC by further improving the betting. I know because I simulated with two dimensional count systems optimizing it for betting. But with single deck and double deck it is different you maybe really need to bring blackjack to near perfect play to outperform Hi-OPT II with ASC.

    Serious Player writes:

    Moses replies: WRONG! If you start pulling that hairy high school crap of playing all indices, they WILL shorten pen and YOU'LL be fucked. I bet your sim didn't allow for that.
    Your bet size is limited and frequency of large bets as well. Unfortunately, we no longer get to play with 1980 conditions. So STOP spewing that crap. I've never got to bet on a sim SCORE yet.

    You HAVE to take what the give you and figure a way to beat them with that. It's just that simple. End of story. Sometimes it's not enough? So don't play.

  9. #9
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    Default Can you explain this?

    This thread at BJTF is deplorable. Ain't you simple SOBs got nothing better to do with your time that debate this silly assed no brainer subject?

    Throw out all this crap you know or think you know. It all comes down to 3 things. 1.) Casino Tolerance 2.) Your money 3.) Your time

    1.) You can't win but it's for damn sure you won't lose if they don't let you play.

    2.) Either you have the money to invest in this endeavor or you don't. Nobody starts a shootout with two bullets in their gun.

    3.) This is the biggie. You WILL run of out time. It's a proven fact. So only you can decide how you want to spend it. For example, this camp professes travel. A vacation to go play blackjack. What a bunch of crap! I play blackjack to go on vacation.

    Now these "Christian" boy gamblers have figured it out. They will soak you for $3,000, tell you a bunch a crap you should already know, and then make you feel warm and fuzzy. Truth is, this is work. There is no two ways about it. But go ahead and spend the money smart guy. Eventually, it's going to come down you getting alone with yourself and finding that inner person it takes to succeed. You WON'T do it reading a forum because the endless confusion to confound the understanding will only DELAY your process. O yes, go read another book. Confuse yourself some more as they are all another version of the same. Yes, Blackjack ATTACK will certainly educate you to the point to where you can sound like one helluva player. But YOU have to BE one helluva player.

    2-7s are negative. 8-A are even or positive. Figure out the combinations that work for YOU. IT's as easy as 1, 2, 3. But if you don't know the 3 above? You have no chance at success.

    Norm...you should be ashamed of yourself for letting this fiasco of a thread move forward. All you are doing is making it more difficult for the REAL players by scaring the hell out of casino authorities that don't understand the depth of the game. DAMMIT IT NORM.

    There is no crying in baseball. There is no guessing in blackjack.
    Last edited by Moses; January 8th, 2019 at 07:01 AM.

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    Default Logic, Reason, Common Sense

    You said you have the simulators. Don't take what other people say as gospel. Run the sims yourself for your system and decide for yourself whether it is worth it or not. I don't see many people going into their bosses office and saying they want a payout. You are your boss when it comes to AP. Do you want a pay cut because someone said taking a couple minutes to learning some more indices isn't worth it?

    T3 writes ^:


    Well put. I would think an unknown for shoes is what one makes by playing additional indices vs what is saved by walking away. Then again, I wouldn't know about shoes.

    In pitch games, it's all about the shuffle and/or pen. In a straight up game, many of those odd plays will work themselves out. Therefore, making certain plays can be costly if it prompts enough suspicion for the dealer to start shuffling early or catching the EITS attention.

    Don't sweat the small stuff, i.e minimum bets. Act on the big stuff, i.e. maximum bets. Fox example, don't worry about your 14 v 2,3. Do worry about 14vs10,A. Don't worry about insurance on 18,11,10 on a minimum bet. Do worry about it on a max bet.
    Last edited by Moses; January 10th, 2019 at 11:31 AM.

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    Default Less is Better

    Zee writes:

    There are times when some poppy has a $50 or $100 bet or more out, I am sitting with a 13 vs 2 on a $5 bet and asking what to do might help you out if you follow their recommendation. If they say to hit and you do and as a result the dealer busts, everyone is happy. If you take the dealers bust card and the dealer wins, no one blames you because you asked. If people say to do what you want, no one blames you as you asked and they did not advise.

    Moses replies: Why are you betting $5 with a table full of players? That time is better spent looking for a better quality of game. Good advice...until the table is split in their decision. Now you've created a shit storm...and more importantly, drawn unwanted attention to yourself.

    DBS writes:

    I’ve also found another plus for doing this. Many times the big player will let you stay at the table when he asks the pit to raise the table min up to $100. I’ve played at a $100 min table with one other big player when all the DD tables are full and I’m allowed to still bet $10. People will walk by and ask the pit why I’m allowed to play at this table and they aren’t. The pit answers because the big player wants me at the table, and I don’t want to bet more than $10. This has happened to me several times. I’ve been able to spread pretty good when the big player is going from black to purple. I’ll be cruising along with my $10 min bets and then go up to $150 and nobody bats an eye. I’ll also “help him out” by spreading to two hands to “change up the cards”. I always ask him first and won’t do it if he doesn’t want me to. He usually says yes...and I obviously only do this when the count is positive.

    Moses replies: Hmmm. And you're still alive to write about it? STFU and play would be my thought. Or better yet, LEAVE, if my minimum bet size is 10 to your 1. IF he thinks you're of any help whatsoever? He's an idiot. How do you know that no one is batting an eye? If you jump from $10 to $150 when the count is positive? I'm gone. And you only bug him with the count is positive? What the hell? Why don't you two just flip off the EITS and say "yes, motha facka's, we are counting"? A $100 min bet player can hire someone to kick your ass for the price of two bets.

    Gawd, Norm. The Refinery smells shit. For good reason. It is shit. Open up for crissake.

    Bosox, Freighter, Don S, T3, you guys are smart enough to call out Dumb, Boring, and Stupid on this one. No?
    Last edited by Moses; January 10th, 2019 at 01:11 PM.

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    I don’t blame the BJA group for charging $3,000 for this course. If there are people willing to pay this amount, then they should charge this amount. As Bubbles has said, it’s supply vs demand. There’s a lot of demand for this course from this group (apparently there are a lot of poor readers out there, lol) so they’re able to charge a lot for it. It’s called capitalism, and the BJA group is stricking while the iron is hot. That’s called being good business people.

    But the point is to execute Hilo and use I18 is not rocket science. This is basically what you learn in this course. Any legitimate bj book explains this system. It’s also on a lot of internet sites for free. Then all it takes is practice to do it to perfection.

    Now learning how to “get away with it” is another matter. This is the real skill in being an AP. As you probably know, the BJA group doesn’t believe in cover or betting cover. Their main pro, Joe, says one of his goals is be backed off at all the casinos. He blasts away going from table min to table max and gets barred quickly. Is this the skill set people are learning in the bootcamp? If it is, I’ve already learned it listening to a GWAE podcast with Joe.

    DBS writes ^:

    Moses replies: You sure sound alot like T3 with your detailed descriptions. The $3k is not the point. The fact Joe is telling a bold faced lie is the concern. Basically, they are flipping off every casino and pit boss in the U.S. with both middle fingers extended. Consequently, it makes a REAL players job even more difficult. PLAY NICE. BE NICE. PLAY SMART. WORK HARD. Play within casino tolerance or get a lifetime ban.

    What part of Joe is full of shit do you not get?

    I can tell you this for 1/2 the price. Reason, Logic, Common Sense. Now please send your check for $1,500 to...Moses
    Last edited by Moses; January 10th, 2019 at 02:07 PM.

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    I’m not in the BJA camp where I just blast away with no playing or betting cover. I actually like to be able to keep playing at my local casinos. Btw, I just re-listened to the Joe GMAE podcast, and he got backed off at over 300 casinos and trespassed at over 40, and at several of these casinos he got backed off 2, 3 and 4 times.

    That’s not my game so I don’t need to spend $3K to learn how to do this at a bootcamp. And that’s not what I teach the newbees under my wing. My philosophy is very different than the BJA group. I teach newbees the game, to respect the casino, to tip and to play within casino tolerance. And I don’t charge them a dime...in fact, many times I buy them meals.

    DBS writes ^:

    Moses replies: My 2nd backoff was one of the scariest moments of my life. And I don't back down from much. But that experience left me with a "no brainer" intuition not mess with these guys. Yet, tokin Joe prides himself on pushing the casinos to their limits on a daily basis? Forrest Gump was not a smart man. Neither is Joe.

    But I suppose there is someone out there dumb enough to give him $3,000 for his line of BS.

    Why in the blue fuck would you teach newbies to play? If you're a single deck player then you know straight up puts you in the best position to win.
    So, in essence, you training people to take your spot and easiest way to profit...and mine, Dick.

    What is this love for newbie's? I could give a fuck. The best way to learn to give an ass whoopin is to be able to take one. This namby pamby stuff is NOT going to help them. You are only crippling them and YOURSELF if you think there is a shortcut.

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    DBS/T3 writes: Reymo, excellent post!
    Some of the best well written alsolute bull shit I've ever read in my life.

    But I don’t think most people are debating the value of this bootcamp. Several other people, including me, have made many of the same points you’ve made here.

    I think what most people, including the OP, are questioning is the price. This is, in fact, why the OP started this thread in the first place. He was shocked when he saw the price.

    For all you defenders of what Colin is charging for this bootcamp, I ask you a question: At what price would it shock you? At what price would you believe it was too much? There has got to be a price where even the defenders believe the price doesn’t smell right. Is it $5,000, $10,000, $25,000?

    As far as the value of something, many things bring us much more value than what we pay for it. I think we’d all agree that Don’s book BJA3 and Norm’s software has brought us much more value than its costs. If they charged based on it’s value, Don would be charging $10,000 to $25,000 for his book. I’m glad he doesn’t because I have bought 3 copies. One I keep in my house, one in my car in the trunk (so when I travel I always have it handy when I want to research something), and one I lend to people who are newbees interested in becoming counters.

    There you have it in a nutshell. DBS/T3 went from a recreational red chip counter to single deck expert who trains newbees. OF course he carries 3 books unless he has to loan one out. What the guy can't afford his own book?

    I remember actually considering going to this bootcamp about 4 or 5 years ago when I first heard about it. At that time, I had just heard about it and I assumed it’d be about $400 to $500...about what Midwest Player thought it should cost. When I went on their web site and checked, I almost had a cow. I was shocked it cost $2,000. It was a no-brainer for me. I wasn’t going to attend any 2 day bootcamp for that much money (even though I could have easily afforded it) based on principle alone.

    Now they have raised their price by 50% to $3,000, probably because, as Bubbles has said, they can. They have so many people wanting to attend, they can charge about anything for it and get away with it.

    I have stated before (and some have called me out on it) that there will be a point where Colin raises the price so high that it will start looking like he’s taking advantage of the AP crowd, rather than helping them. I’m not saying he’s there yet, but he’s getting close.

    I’ll ask my question one more time because I think it’s a good one: At what point will the price be so high that it doesn’t smell right to you?

    The answers to all your questions are fairly simple. It's all utter bull shit and this Colin is looking out for Colin. What if a casino decides to send personnel to these camps? You'd all pretty much be fucked. THAT would be my first move if there were an ARMY of blackjack players soaking me for money.


    Last edited by Moses; January 12th, 2019 at 11:14 AM.

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    Rye Moo replies: You mentioned you thought $400 or $500 would be a fair price point... Ha! I can tell you that I've seen a small glimpse of what Colin goes through to prepare these boot camps. I would never waste my time for a measly $500/head. This is simple economics, no? Demand has to meet Supply.

    Here's what you may not know: Colin does not live in Vegas, so he has to fly into town and travel with many supplies for the boot camp. On top of that, he rents a large house for about a 5 day period, and the rent on that house is very expensive. Roughly about 2.5 to 3x more expensive than what someone might pay for a small apartment in Las Vegas for an entire month! Further more, Colin employs help. Yes, he employs people to help train. Colin cannot train 12+ people on his own! I'm sure he could, but it couldn't be done efficiently. There's 4 or 5 people who are ALWAYS at the boot camp to help train, and their labor IS NOT FREE. And only one of those guys live in Vegas and the rest live out of state. I imagine Colin would covers their travel expenses too. On top of that, Colin provides all of the boot campers with food on Day 1 and takes everyone out to eat on Day 2 after boot camp has concluded. So if you thought Colin is charging 3K per head and only teaching people +1 and -1 and that's it... then you are clearly not seeing the entire picture.

    So, as you see, this is a big time operation. I have a friend who is a top notch basketball official. HE's travels all over the US since the early 80's working as many as 100 games a year a $3,000 per game. That's $300K in about 5 months work. I guarantee you his primary concern is not to find newbies to replace himself.

    However, he is a bright business man. In the off season he would put together camps. Now he has a great relationship with the colleges so his overhead is low for the camps. Teams will pay a premium to come to the camps to play in a college arena, experience campus life for a few days, and have college level officials work their game. The aspiring college level officials will pay as much as $500 a head to be seen and instructed by college level officials and he sells out months in advance. Now out of maybe 250 to 300 in attendance only 2 or 3 actually get assigned a college game. He put on about 5 camps a year. YES, he was making a TON of money. But what is missing in this picture?

    There was no time spent with family. I've sat in his classes and listened to some of the top notch officials who'd dedicated their lives to game. So what's the problem? They made a TON of money at a GAME. One speaker even broke into tears as he realized his time spent in a basketball arena, in airports, motel rooms, and rented cars that LIFE had passed him by.

    The main difference here is there were guarantees if you're good enough and could endure the lifestyle. But with Colin there is no guarantee and a likely horrible ending. Why? Because you're not supposed to win.

    Sadly, Rye Moo will get several YES check marks on his posts by the sheep who need HOPE and someone to follow and a shortcut.

    Play, Win, Improve, Protect is my mantra. Without one you won't get the other. You can't win if you can't play. You won't continue to win if you won't put in the time necessary to improve your game. IF you don't stand up against these self serving fools and protect your game, there may not be a game to play, or the casinos will take all the potential net out of the game.

    Rye Moo/Colin mantra is there is a sucker born every minute.
    Last edited by Moses; January 12th, 2019 at 11:29 AM.

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