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Thread: Dog Shit Cake count

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
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    Default Dog Shit Cake count

    Single Deck straight up strategy. I'm still working out the details on doubling 10,11,vs3,4,5,6, hitting 16v10 and 12v4,13v2,3,4 14vs2,3.
    I can't present on argument against Ralph Strickers style of setting the bar high on 12v4 an 13v2,3 and always standing on 13v4,14v2,3.
    It's costly to Always stand on 16v10 as some say is a prudent move. Hitting at -1.5 equates to always standing on the first hand.
    The idea of doubling in a high negative count has never appealed to me. I read somewhere the dealer bust rate with 5 or 6 up around 42% of the time. This indicates to me he doesn't bust 58% of the time. I would think that number would increase as the count decreases. So, in a negative count, I'm doubling my investment to likley receive a small card and then hope the dealer busts which is less likely since they only have to reach 17. I've got to get a 6 with 11 or 7 with 10 to reach 17. What is wrong with this picture?
    The four game changing stages in a percentage count are 50%, 57.14%, 60%, 66.67%. So an RC -3 (43% to 47% range) make cover it all. I have to do some research first. I find it odd that we hit 16 wanting/expecting a small card - yet double on 10,11 wanting/expecting a large card. It seems the happy medium is around RC -3 (43% to 47% range).
    Under a similar notion, I double v 9,10,A with the count used for insurance decision at 57.14 to 60% high cards remaining. We think there is a 10 in the hole vs A when we insure. We hope to get a 10 when we double. Except on 10 vs 10,A as it really comes down to how many Aces remain.
    This serves as notes to myself before I begin research. I appreciate/value your input.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    Most doubles have an index. If the index calls for double, that is the right play. Based on sims, some strong doubles are always doubles regardless how low the count is. My humble opinion only.
    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!
    T3 is no threat to any casino because he spends most of his time bragging on BTF.
    T3: Talk The Talk.

  3. #3
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    Sep 2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by fat_bumblebee View Post
    Most doubles have an index. If the index calls for double, that is the right play. Based on sims, some strong doubles are always doubles regardless how low the count is. My humble opinion only.
    Thanks FB. I appreciate your input. As I review sims the indices are based on the threshold. In single deck, our bet frequency and amount is very limited. So, you have to pick your spots. But it's crucial to find that advantage point. Thresholds can be costly and put one too far behind to where they can't catch back up with the limitations set forth.
    Last edited by Moses; October 16th, 2018 at 09:36 PM.

  4. #4
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    Sep 2017
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    If you consider yourself an AP, think of your play as one long session. it doesn't matter what happens with one hand, or in one day. One reason not to do an all-in, but better to do one-half all-in is in case you have a double or split.
    21 Forme writes ^

    Moses replies: Dumbass! Look at it as though there is ALWAYS on more thing you can do. Many of these thresholds will never teeter over to the positive side in your playing lifetime. So, it's wise to decifer the difference between a true advantage and just a threshold. You've been worrying yourself sick and wasting your life away at a blackjack table chasing thresholds.

    The other day a guy comes up, sits next to me, and starts playing HiLO. He made alot in a little bit of time. I moved on. Now I happen to be strolling through that same casino a couple of nights later. He was still sitting there all hunched over, profit gone, pissed off, hadn't done the 3 S's in 3 days. All in the pursuit of the almightly EV.

    In the menatime, I'd played 4 other sessions at various places and hit my goal for the week. I worked out/walked each day, took my lady to lunch, met with friends for song and laughs, watched a few games, studied sims, played some hands on Verite, and went to breakfast with a buddy. All in the time he was still sitting at that table.

    21Forme relies on the notion of the evelasting swat will make up for variance. Find ways to reduce variance and learn to duck for a more balanced life.

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