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Thread: Quality of hands vs Quality of hours

  1. #1
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    Default Quality of hands vs Quality of hours

    Game selection is key. A game plan is vital. Your time IS the factor. Hence, you may not run out of money. You WILL run out of time. GUARANTEED! So, it's not about how much money you can get for your time. It IS about what YOUR time is worth in exchange for money.
    Last edited by Moses; July 16th, 2018 at 11:29 AM.

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    All human wisdom is summed up in two words, WAIT and HOPE. Alexander Dumas


    Then we have words from Ryemo the Dumbass.

    Getting beyond 1,000 hrs a year is difficult due to the back offs and travel requirements. I suppose if you play locally and use insanely tight spreads and don’t have anything else going on in your life (i.e. you’re retired), then I’m sure you could get 4,000 hrs a year. But in that case, you would also need to have excellent games in order for those small spreads to beat them. Otherwise, I think 4,000 hours of local exposure, regardless of how polite you play, will inevitably lead to back offs. And once you start getting backed off, you’ll need to travel to play. And once you start traveling, you can’t settle for low EV anymore because now you have travel expenses, so you’ll have to play more aggressively, and that will lead to even more back offs. It’s a vicious cycle.


    Moses replies: What the hell do you know about retirement? That is the prime time for a blackjack player to supplement his income. You travel to work. Not to play when your raising a family. Sorry bub, it's NOT ALL ABOUT YOU ANYMORE. Come home one day and your wife is gone and your kids don't know you. Wait and see what that does to your precious EV.

    Now, 100k hands is possible. I know. I've done it. I suppose it's about 1000 hours of ass in seat at the table. Who knows how much more time is involved in travel and searching for a decent game. The separation process is easy. Don't play bad games and they hurl you from the good games. You HAVE what remains and THAT is a nice supplement. The supplement pays for your travel to relax and enjoy yourself without worries of EV. Only in your case, the places that remain will be scattered throughout the US.

    Now, you want to talk about vicious cycles? In a few years many of the people who are important in your life now are gone. The youngsters will move on because they are entitled to their lives too. You WILL regret missing those special moments in their lives or not being able to relive them just one more time. But you can't get it back because people pass and life moves on. In your case, YOUR memories will be travel to and ass sitting at a blackjack table. All in the quest of the almighty EV which isn't going to mean shit when it's destroyed.

    When that time comes. You WILL have two questions. Did I do everything I could do for my family? Was it enough? Those answers better be YES because it's only you that has to live with NO.
    Last edited by Moses; July 20th, 2018 at 04:54 AM.

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    Which brings up another point, probably worth a new thread - that being proportion of EV needed to cover expenses. For myself, last year was probably 15-18% (guesstimate). This year, about 7-8%. The other part of that issue is quality of accommodation, quality of food, I.e., where priorities lie in terms in terms of expense quality.

    Freighter writes ^:

    Moses replies: Excellent point. The value of playing locally is my cost to compete is actually in the plus category.


    Sim to your hearts content, but in actual battle, throw in some nuggets of creativity, those creative sands which really can't be simmed.

    Moses replies: Love this post Freighter. People laugh when I say I don't gamble. I say it with a straight face. All they see is the chips on the table or the $100's being exchanged at the window. What they can't see is the wheels turning in my mind. What they don't see is the study and commitment required to have patience and discipline. My system or count makes it look as though I'm very conservative and inconsistent or sporadic. Timing is everything and I'm actually about as rigid as you can get when it comes to consistency.






    Last edited by Moses; July 17th, 2018 at 08:27 AM.

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    At my age (70 soon) and because I play recreationally, I mostly make one trip 4 days a week to local casinos, one each day, leave within 20 minutes-2 hours. If I am up by more than $200, I leave.

    I have averaged between 25 and 30 hours a month, including 2 weekend trips. After 7 months, I have won about $12k while incurring 3-4k in expenses. Goal is to win $10k after all expenses at the end of the year.

    Zee writes ^:

    One key metric is expense to revenue proportion. Your comments above may easily lead to grief. Your travel expense ratio is far to high, recreational or not. I've covered this point before.Freighter responds ^:

    Moses replies: It's a game of people played with cards. Now I may be headed out to watch a ballgame and see the opportunity to make $100 and tip $10 for 10 minutes time invested. That sort of falls into the "found money" category.

    For me, it's a good memory combined with the ability to forget. In other words, I KNOW where I'm at but I'm not going to let it determine where I'm going. So I view the game in terms of sessions. The key difference is I'm always in control because I pick the games to play and leave when it changes to my unliking.

    I know what I make/lose per session, then forget it before the next session. Repeat per day, per week, per month, per year. I didn't get to where I am today by worryin how I might feel tomorrow. Yet, the results of yesterday have nothing to do with today. The BIGGIE I watch is my bank account.

    Week 1 9 wins 5 losses 3 Ties 3 Interruptions 1300 hands $1440 profit. high $2427 Low $288

    Week 2 12 wins 2 losses 3 Ties 3 Interruptions 1300 hands short July 4 week. $2945 profit. High $2945 Low $13

    Week 3 8 wins 7 lossess 2 Ties 2 Interruptions 1400 hands $26 profit. High $1338. Low $26.





    Last edited by Moses; July 16th, 2018 at 02:42 PM.

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    If I was to have the success of just under $3,000 every week, 15 hours a week, and play 52 weeks a year as a Green chipper (black when I can). I'd still be under Ryemo and his RED chip buddy income wise and far over timewise at 780 hours annually. In addition, I have no travel or expense to play. I know when and where I'm going to play almost everyday. I'm counting every card in a single deck straight up. Plus know exactly what remains, what was played, and the percentages in my favor or not. Therefore, I know when to pass on certain large bets when the deck composition is not favorable, even though TC is high.

    These guys play whatever number of decks are available in the location for the day and it doesn't matter how many are at the table. They are deck estimating and breaking down the decision making process to just one number. They think betting into a large TC makes it easy to win and having a large bet spread is the key. Not really, especially if you are sharing this opportunity with others at the table.

    I could care less about who plays and who doesn't. However, I rather not have anyone at my table. So why is it so important that people must know how much you make and your success? It's the boot camp. Ryemo wants people to think they are failing so they can come to him and pay in order to change it around. Ryemo is self absorbed. HE doesn't even care about spending time with his own family. Why would he care about you? A complete stranger.

    Funny, everyone on a forum is a big winner with very little effort, training, or practice exerted.
    Last edited by Moses; July 17th, 2018 at 08:43 AM.

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    I suppose if you play locally and use insanely tight spreads and don’t have anything else going on in your life (i.e. you’re retired), then I’m sure you could get 4,000 hrs a year. But in that case, you would also need to have excellent games in order for those small spreads to beat them. Otherwise, I think 4,000 hours of local exposure, regardless of how polite you play, will inevitably lead to back offs.

    Pom Pom writes ^:

    Moses replies: Ya think? That's nearly 11 hours a day, EVERYDAY for a year? C'mon.

    Do me a favor. Dust off your old Casino Verite sitting on your shelf along with your hundreds of outdated blackjack books. Now play 1000 hands per day, 100 hands per hour, for 10 straight days. Use your count and play exactly the way you plan to play in a casino. You will see the patterns of the peeks and valleys how your money fluctuates. You will feel the fatigue. Boredom will set in by the 4th day and then it's sheer drudging along for the next 6 days. Now imagine this pace for a year. Only you're in a casino and not in the cozy comforts of home.

    Maybe, just MAYBE then you will begin to understand how ridiculous your claims are of HUGE earnings and how easily it comes to you.

    All you guys are doing is putting casinos on alert. Why? For no reason other than to butter your own toast. It makes it very difficult for those who actually "Work" at this game and are in solid compliance with the pit.

    In a real boot camp? Ryemo is the guy with entitlement issues. So now everyone has to go on a 20 mile hike. Is any of this sinking in?


    Last edited by Moses; July 17th, 2018 at 08:50 AM.

  7. #7
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    Given various factors, a decent living balanced with family responsibilities.

    I'm guessing for myself about 200-250 hours this year. I'm in retirement mode, though I do regular work a few hours a week. I'd play more if I had local stores, so, since I don't, I'm not unhappy with current play levels.

    Freighter writes ^:


    Moses replies: I stopped playing from the time my youngest was born until she started college. My kids were scholar athletes. So my time was spent working and helping them achieve their goals. A typical day was rise at 4am, get them to morning practice 30 minutes away at 5am, 3 days a week. Being 1 minute late was simply not an option. I'd workout from 5am to 6.45am, then shower in the locker room, run and get them pancakes, and drive back to have them at school by 8am.
    Then work in between and repeat at the PM's 5 days a week. Saturday was 7am to 10am.

    So a winning day and it's like let's go on vacation, buy this, buy that. A losing day is blowing grocery money. Hence, wives don't understand variance. No my blackjack supplement was NOT the reason for failure. Absolutely not. No way. Notta. But that was the excuse given and everyone seemed to buy it.

    So I'd say learn in your spare time (if you have any) and play for fun locally until your retired and family obigations are reduced.
    Last edited by Moses; July 18th, 2018 at 08:27 PM.

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    35 hours a week, non stop travel, 4 backoffs a week, laundry, dirty underwear, sweaty shirts, body odour, cheap hotels, eating shit on the run - no way to live. Just my humble opinion.

    Freighter writes ^:


    Moses replies: Plus the girl that wants a gambling/blackjack player may be the one you want for a night but not long term. There were some long days that included red eye flights, sleeping in airports or locker rooms. There was one 5 year stretch in the early 80's where I only had 8 nights offs. No days, unless you consider driving or boarding a flight to and from games a day off. But the money was guaranteed. No losing days.

    Plus I had a full time job Monday thru Friday. Kemper Fund paid 15% during the Carter administration so I banked every dollar I could. But the money was guaranteed. No losing days.

    I remember those two lane rolling hill highways in Iowa.

    Oh, I can agree that one has 800+ stores to choose from, but the cost benefit analysis of that versus effective cover plays will not, IMHO, be positive.
    Stealth writes:

    Exactly. Two words for Ryemo. Disadvantage Forum.



    Last edited by Moses; July 18th, 2018 at 02:08 PM.

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    Default I wonder when to wander

    Sit if:

    table offers 1 or 2 decks;

    at least 60% pen;

    no more than two other players at the table.

    3.2 on blackjacks

    You know casino and pit comfort level for the amount you can win without risk of being backed off.

    You haven't exceeded that level in a previous session during that shift.

    You haven't played more than two sessions during that shift.

    Leave if:

    Dealer drops pen below 60%. Unless it's to scrap a negative deck.

    Others join making it more than two players, if count is flat or negative or new deck begins. You may or may not cash out. Take a short break. Watch either at or near the table. But don't sick around to the point YOUR time could be better invested playing elsewhere.

    If you've exceeded 100 hands and the deck is negative or new deck begins.

    You've reached their tolerance level and deck is negative or new deck begins.

    You've dropped below you tolerance level and deck is negative or new deck begins.


    Their tolerance level to the upside should equal your tolerance level to the downside. Don't let the losses due to lack patience or discipline today pay for the profit of tomorrow when you played within your rules...and your opponents.

    Win Today. Play tomorrow.
    Last edited by Moses; July 18th, 2018 at 11:14 AM.

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    Default Cover

    When we see pointless posts like yours or from others boasting about their wins, about their basketball or hunting prowess or the power of the count they use (but never care to share) with all the bins and such, we know what being full time leads to.

    Zee writes ^:


    Moses replies: Blackjack IS a sport. There is a winner and a loser or a tie. I learned to avoid the Zee traps of repeated questions long ago. Your question process has included everything from Kobe to LeBron to little red cars to stealing candy at Walmart to making profits of a part time McDonalds emloyee in your desire for companionship. And finally, your ridiculous claims of hooker adventures in Vegas. Some of my casino rat friends read that thread. That is NOT the way it works. If you want to see a boobie? Look in the mirror.

    Don S. mentioned in another forum that he believes you're making money in spite of your lack of... well, everything. I think you have a lot of money to lose and that is exactly what you are doing. Losing alot of money. Clearly, you have entitlement issues and no work ethics. THAT is why you are treated rude by so many. Ever think "it can't be that many, maybe it's me"? You say you put up with alot crap but get quality answers from Don S? When is the last time he answered one of your questions?

    Cover is built into my game. The idea is to reduce risk without reducing SCORE. Deception to the EITS or pit is a bonus and probably not even hitting their radar.

    A column count allows you to avoid poor deck compositions that appear to be solid +TC plays. This is your best tool and few even use it or care. Yet they make all this money and get backed off. I believe the getting backed off part because you are playing directly into what they've been trained to watch. However, if you learn to duck once in awhile instead of always swinging, you will miss getting hit when the deck is rich in 10,A but also 2-4s, for example. Plus they will be leaving themselves wide open on the next round after the 2-4s come out. Thus providing a far better deck composition for your significatly increased bet.
    Last edited by Moses; July 20th, 2018 at 10:41 AM.

  11. #11
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    It's easier to trick technology
    21forme writes ^:

    Please be more specific.
    Spiderman writes ^:

    Sorry, not on a public forum.
    21forme writes ^:

    Moses replies: I think we all know it's a public forum. So why bring it up in the first place? BORRRRIINNGG. In your plan, you just blew 2 of your 5 posts allotment for the day...and said absolutley nothing.
    Last edited by Moses; July 18th, 2018 at 02:14 PM.

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    It’s not about being harsh on yourself, it’s about being honest with yourself. There’s no EV when you’re walking/driving to the next casino. I guess if you want to get technical, there is, but it can’t be calculated. I’m not saying that isn’t part of the job and it shouldn’t be considered work. I’m saying that when you add up your earnings and you want to see if those results align with your EV, counting hours the way you just described would distort those results.

    Ryemo writes ^:

    Moses replies: It's about being hard enough on yourself so you can be honest with yourself. It's not all about YOU when raising a family. Moving to another casino if it's the right move increases EV. However, you must factor in the costs of doing biz which goes up with every backoff. For instance, while you're driving across Iowa in pursuit of EV, I'm walking downtown. My windshield time is about 10 minutes max. Yours is 3 hours minimum. No?

    If you're as good as you say and have that magic so often, consider moving your entire family to Las Vegas. My cousin did it from Nebraska. He is a college professor and a musician. I'm fairly certain his annual earning are pale in comparison to yours.
    I know he recently bought a new house so he could tell you where the best values are to buy and schools for your kids etc, etc.

    Many of my friends spend 6 months a year on the road. Some more than that. One guy makes around $250K guaranteed money. But he can never get that time back with his family. Therefore, the money is in the bank from EV. However, so is the big hole in his life.

    You've been at this less than 5 years and you think you have all the awswers. Man, you don't even know the questions. True, you are more accomplished than Zee. So you give him stellar advice. Big deal! When is the last time he ever took it? You are wasting your time.

    Last edited by Moses; July 19th, 2018 at 11:14 AM.

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    Zee
    Analogy
    A travelling commission salesman earns a percentage if his gross sales. Against those commissions, he measures the cost of earning those commisions. Expenses include gas, wear and tear on vehicle, accomodation, food. Expenses are deducted. A net is calculated, against which he must support his family, pay his bills, and of course, taxes.

    At the end if the day, the salesman must determine if the rewards are sufficient to offset his efforts. He either has the ability, or dies not have. It may or may not be time for a career change.

    Commisions for AP are earned against hours played. Everything else comes off the top. If I was your sales manager, I would not tell you that your expenses are too high. I would tell you that your commissions are not sufficient to cover your expenses. I would tell you not to work harder, but to work smarter. Commission sales people also have runs of bad variance.

    Freighter writes ^:


    Moses replies; Excellent analogy. For me, I'd build a territory and then they'd branch it off to create a job for another salesman or help a struggling one survive. Never made much sense to me. But that is Corporate America for ya. I love the one where they say "we're doing you a favor, we are decreasing your commission but increasing your territory." Or vice versa. Hence, Ryemo and his travel more and get backed off. We are losing money on every item we sell. That's okay. We'll make it up in volume.

    My message to my crew was simple. No sales reports. I'm not going to call you or come work with you unless you ask me too. I'm hiring you because I believe you have the skill set for the job. Therefore, if you're not making $10k per month, I will be firing you. I only fired one guy. One quit. The rest were successful.

    Ryemo. My last "square job" was in 1984. Even then I was working somewhere almost every night and weekend. You're making this way too complicated. Either your bank acount is growing to you and your wife's liking or it is not. In your case, it best be growing alot. As kids get older the expense goes up, not down. So a bank account shrinker is a stinker. At this point in your life, volatility is like Russian Roulette.
    Last edited by Moses; July 19th, 2018 at 12:08 PM.

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    For the DD game $25 minimum, buy in 500, I would leave if I lost 300, stop loss so to speak, if I am up 400, I also would leave to keep me under covered, with player card.

    Ellenc writes ^:

    Moses replies; Ellenc is a perfect example of one who knows her limitations and more importantly, the pit tolerance. I would suggest making it $300 and $375. Then $300 won or lost is the amount recorded. You can make a little a last a long time at a very low cost of expense. Better than making a lot for a short time at premium expense levels.

    If you playing a $100 then multiply by 4. It's unlikely you will have to suffer the pain of losing $20K in a night with this strategy. What casino is even going to allow you to win back 1/2 that much in that hit and run strategy?
    Last edited by Moses; July 20th, 2018 at 10:43 AM.

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    Default DBS Listen up!

    Freightman, this advice didn’t make much sense. It sounds like something out of a ploppy handbook. Math is the math. Are you saying if he makes his ramp in a more non robotic fashion it will help him win? I get how this will help longevity but I fail to see how this has anything to do with a losing streak. Please explain. Thanks.

    DBS writes ^:


    Moses replies: The idea is to drain the swamp. All you want to do is fight alligators. Eyeballing the 23 vs 45 is of no help whatsoever in the pitch games which today are now your primary source of play. Yesterday it was shoes. I'm not altogther convinced I'm not writing to a pit boss considering the way you jump around.

    However, separating the 2-4s and 5-7s will provide the perfect E.O.R. However, UstonZen (who I think is you) could not understand how to employ a column count. Emloying HiLO in pitch games is just asking for trouble for a variety of reasons. 1.) your frequency and amount of spread is limited. So you need proper deck composition. Otherwise, you may be betting into a deck that is rich in A-10s but also rich in 5-7s. So you end up two hands of crap. 2.) Every EITS in the world can count HiLO - My 10 year old granddaughter can do it over the course of 1 or 2 decks. 3.) As for bet allocation? I'm not going any further because you've already created too much suspicion. Your story has too many inconsistencies and doesn't add up.

    Assuming you lack the capability to employ or learn to column count, I'd suggest going to Wong Halves. If there is any room left in your brain, keep track of the Aces on your fingers. Improve SCORE by counting the 2 as 0 and the 7 as 1 (for pitch games). Improve PE and SCORE by switching the tag values of the 3 and the 7 for pitch games.

    Stop antgonizing Freighter. You have not yet reached the level of experience to be a pimple on his ass. IF you want to learn AND WIN then take a STFU pill and start absorbing what these guys are saying. It doesn't take much to figure out that you are not a smart or savvy player. You've allowed your mouth to overload your ass in previous threads. Any advice you get now should be considered found money.
    Last edited by Moses; July 31st, 2018 at 11:05 AM.

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