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Thread: Quality of hands vs Quality of hours

  1. #46
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    Default 10 vs 10

    Sly Pooch to Don S.
    You do realize that +7 hardly ever occurs? Also, I thought the whole point of of indices (at least simple ones like the illustrious 18) was to show what will make the most money in the long run regardless of variance/risk (or by "long run" do you mean simply mean going broke less often but making less money)?

    Seriously, if you're not side counting Aces you're better off just always hitting 10. Otherwise, it's just another threshold. Now, you can get away with a lower TC and a higher ratio of Aces remaining. Why? Well, we know the Ace isn't in the hole if the 10 is up or we'd be crying over a large bet lost.

    We don't know if the 10 is in the hole or if it's the next card. We know the deck is full of them or we wouldn't have bet large in the first place. Quite often, they are both places. So, if you look at individualized sim results on 10vs10, you'll see as much as 20% ties. I doubt a TC 7+ occurs with a 10vs10 once in every 10k hands. OR 10 times for the tireless player staring at felt for 100k hands.

    Just another way to reduce variance.

  2. #47
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    Default Back to the Future (Column Count or Modified Halves)???

    Howdy stranger.

    See youíre the primary poster here on ZZ the Forum these days.

    Did my eyes deceive me, or did you post that you have backed away from your Modified Halves Count (2 and 7 switch tag values), and revert back to your (not the ApeManís) columnar count? If so, are you experiencing any perceived gains?

    With best regards,

    (Your friendly, neighborhood) South Florida Attorney (no, not Spiderman)

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    Howdy stranger.

    See you’re the primary poster here on ZZ the Forum these days.

    Did my eyes deceive me, or did you post that you have backed away from your Modified Halves Count (2 and 7 switch tag values), and revert back to your (not the ApeMan’s) columnar count? If so, are you experiencing any perceived gains?

    With best regards,

    (Your friendly, neighborhood) South Florida Attorney (no, not Spiderman)
    Nice to hear from you Mr. McCoy. (Law and Order), Yes, I switched back a few weeks ago. I simply like knowing all the cards as opposed to not knowing.

    I wouldn't say gains, because I'm forced to play within strict casino limitations. But variance has definitely been reduced. I'm still getting around 5% large bet plays. Down from 7%. But the win percentage increases because I'm ducking out of bad deck compositions. Also, I know exactly how deep the dealer is going with a column count as opposed to guessing.

    I had a two hand large bet out with the conventional count and the tags were 67% large remaining, two of which were Aces vs 33% 3-7s remained. I end up losing 3 hands. But that is not why I switched back. Not one out of the 10 cards played in that round, deep in the deck, were a 10.

    I still think Modified Halves is good for pitch players. SCORE is higher than Wong Halves and you've reduced the number of halves to count from 4 to 2.

  4. #49
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    Default Question for Mr. McCoy

    The column count breaks down (2-4s) (5-7s) vs 9,10,A. I call the 9's played A,B,C,D. Picked that up from T3. Then I count the Aces on body parts. The allows me to have decent PE for regular hands and a better composition of 9-As for large bet hands. However, the other method is to count 8,9 at -.5 the 10, A at -1. Then drop the 8 after calling ABCD and add -.5 to the Ace for large bet compositions.

    The 2nd option is slightly more difficult but covers every card in the deck. I cannot determine with my tools which is the better way. Your thoughts?

  5. #50
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    The column count breaks down (2-4s) (5-7s) vs 9,10,A. I call the 9's played A,B,C,D. Picked that up from T3. Then I count the Aces on body parts. The allows me to have decent PE for regular hands and a better composition of 9-As for large bet hands. However, the other method is to count 8,9 at -.5 the 10, A at -1. Then drop the 8 after calling ABCD and add -.5 to the Ace for large bet compositions.

    The 2nd option is slightly more difficult but covers every card in the deck. I cannot determine with my tools which is the better way. Your thoughts?
    Why not simplify this? Use your 2-4, 5-7, and 9-A, and side count 8’s for knowledge of full deck composition?

    How hard can it be to side count 1 card value?

    As I recall, Tarzan side counts the Ace, while tracking 2-5, 6-9, and 10’s.

    Just a thought.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    Why not simplify this? Use your 2-4, 5-7, and 9-A, and side count 8’s for knowledge of full deck composition? .
    Currently, a deck composition with 2 8, 1 9, 1 10, and 1 Ace played vs 3 57s and 4 2-4s played would be verbalized as 3.5-3-4 B. IF I counted the 9-10-A and left the 8 silent the verbalized count would be 3-3-4 A because I'm also side counting the 9.

    A common large bet is 12-8-8. That's 60% large remaining and 40% small. A True count throws it into a lower TC than say 9-7-7 even through the percentage is the same. Suppose 3 Aces are played in the 12-8-8 scenario. By adjusting the Ace count it throws the percentage into a lower category and thus a minimum bet. Now suppose the count is 12-6-10. I also have a deck rich in 5-7s. Thus a large bet now becomes a minimum bet. These are examples of where HiLO players bet into bad deck compositions and thus spend their lives chasing variance.

    IF I were to side count the 8 and give the same value to the 9,10,A? I still have to side count the 9 to reduce to 1/2 point for better deck composition.


    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    As I recall, Tarzan side counts the Ace, while tracking 2-5, 6-9, and 10’s..
    Yes. I was shocked when the sim results came out only slightly better than Hi opt II. I used this same alignment for years. Except I split the middle column to 6-7s and 8-9s because of the extreme difference in EoR between the 6 and the 9. The realignment to 2-4s and 5-7s provides an equal EoR. Plus eliminates giving the 5 the same value as the 2, another extreme difference.
    Last edited by Moses; July 30th, 2019 at 10:35 AM.

  7. #52
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    Default When to update the True Count?

    That is the nice thing about a column count. The percentages 57%, 60%, 67% dictate a change of some sort. OR reversed for negative decks. The true count doesn't exist. The running count exists for your minimum bet decisions. The percentages are etched in your mind. So you wait for the game to come to you. If the percentage bar hits but the columns are out of alignment? You wait for the game to come to you. Think of it like an exit on the freeway. Then finding it's closed for construction. You go on to the next exit.

    THIS is the primary value in reducing variance.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Currently, a deck composition with 2 8, 1 9, 1 10, and 1 Ace played vs 3 57s and 4 2-4s played would be verbalized as 3.5-3-4 B. IF I counted the 9-10-A and left the 8 silent the verbalized count would be 3-3-4 A because I'm also side counting the 9.
    .
    Mr. McCoy: It just occurred to me that by leaving the 8 silent, one would only have to make the 1/2 count on large bet conversions...only about 4 to 6 times out of a 100 hands on average. Even then, if the percentage is right at 60% large remaining, you're okay as long as the Aces don't exceed the 9s. This is definitely the way to go for double deck games.

    Even in single deck my memory chart is only 4 for 57% and 5 for 67%. I'd still need to remember the halves at 60% for the conversions. So I'd have 10 which are already etched in my memory for life.

  9. #54
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    KJ writes:
    Against better judgement I am going to comment.

    You should have went with your instincts not to comment.

    Moses approach more and more resembles T3's ramblings. Such a complex count is short-sighted and not conducive to winning today's games. This complex approach is nothing new. It is recycled from the 70's and 80's when there were better games. And even then the consensus was that any value was limited. As games deteriorated, that "limited value" has shrunk to no value. It really has. The things Moses and T3 before him and anyone who focuses on some kind of complex column count or anything more than a level 2 count is just not what it takes to win in today's environment against todays games.

    T3 is complex. Tarzan, not so much. Except there is no point in reducing his lowest column to zero in a pitch game. Freighter has the most streamlined approach for shoes. My column count is actually very simple. But I can see, with your lack of education and poor work ethic, why you'd have an inability to understand or comprehend anything other than HiLO.

    Now I know some people want and try to give Moses a little leeway that others like T3 don't get because Moses claims to play Reno, where there are still single and double deck games. The kind of games that might just benefit a little from a more complex approach. A throwback to the 70's / 80's sort of. I too tried to give him that benefit of doubt for quite a while, but he just can't be playing the limits and quantity that he claims in Reno. Reno doesn't allow that for long. So it becomes difficult to give him any benefit of doubt.

    Hmmmm. That sounds like a challenge. When would you like to play me? Blackchip, otherwise, you're not worth my time.

    I mean seriously, my advise to Moses, is instead of trying to squeeze every last cent out of his low limit, red chip play in Reno, by following this misguided path down memory lane of complex counts, is to prepare for the change that is likely coming to Reno as they move away from being the last bastion of Single deck games, because THAT is coming sooner rather than later.

    KJ is an idiot.

    Peter Peter Pumkin eatin
    KJs boyfriend likes to beat him
    Whacks him twice upside the head
    Boinks him in the ass
    AND goes to bed




    Last edited by Moses; August 1st, 2019 at 09:35 AM.

  10. #55
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    Question SFL. Ive heard you say that there are times when you Double on 12. As Im sure you've also figured out, there are instances when you hit in a positive count when conventional methods suggesting standing. How do you determine from a threshold to your advantage in those scenarios?

  11. #56
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    Default Preserving the Win

    Reading this thread at BJTF is like watching 4 monkees trying to fuck the same football...all at the same time.

    Zee admits he is a bj player without a cause. 21forme is trying to, once again, put logic to Zee's silly notions. It's like none of you can really get this?

    Don, Don, Don I learned this simple method in HS bookkeeping class. Tell them to take out of sheet of paper, draw a line down the middle of it.

    On the left side you will have your income from blackjack play. On the right side, you list your expenses to do business. In this case, the biz is playing blackjack. It you are losing? Then jot down how much on the right side because zero is on the left side.

    The difference between the left side and the right is your profit or loss. Now, since none of you will be putting your chips in the other persons circle? It is IMPOSSIBLE to impose "your" value of "their" time. Bk 101. Expenses low. Income high.

    Zee has nothing to do in small town USA. So he goes to Vegas for 3 days and goes to a movie if his profits are up. What? Do they not have theaters where you live? Chew maka me clazy. CLAZY!

    So what did you do last week? Oh, I flew to Vegas for 3 days, got a blackjack on my first hand so I went to a movie, pissed around for 3 days, and went home with a profit. Can hardly wait for my next trip.
    Last edited by Moses; January 15th, 2020 at 11:10 AM.

  12. #57
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    Wave wants to run a sim to include his expenses. Perhaps list your sim Win Rate per hour on the right side. Take this figure and the number of hours you must play to exceed expense and reach trip goal. If it happens. Great! Mission accomplished. No? If it doesn't happen? So you play a few more hours than expected. A key is finding your game you simmed in the first place.

    For every 100 "atta boys" there is one "aw fuck" that brings down all the atta boys. So, Zee's atta boy price is $2,000. Well, $1,500 with $500 pocketed so he doesn't feel bad or some shit like that. So what happens when you get too many "aw, fucks" at the start? At what point do you give up on the "atta boy" and live with the shitty feeling for the trip? Of course, this never happens in forum land.

    Points are 1.) you stated you're bored in small town USA. 2.) You have to ask others "pros" what you want. 3.) you have no idea whether you will be playing shoes, DD straight up or full tables.

    Answers are. 1.) You're bored. Utilize your down time to become a better player. 2.) You should be a lean mean blackjack playin machine by now. 3.) you know your game and won't settle for less before your ass ever hits the airline seat, your drivers seat, or a seat at a table.

    I know, I know you play recreational for fun. Just like the guy who bets because it makes the games more fun to watch and then bitches for 3 hours. The intensity grows as his funds shrink. Are we having "fun" yet?
    Last edited by Moses; January 15th, 2020 at 12:19 PM.

  13. #58
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    Default Rwducing the loss

    Zee. If you're Preserving the Win on trips, you must also consider reducing the loss. I know every card played and which ones still remains and I still have days where I can't seem to get out of the gate.

    So if you Preserve a Win at say $2,000. Wouldnt you also quit playing if you got down $2000? Rec or not, part time or full, it's still a competition and you will lose your ass everytime without a sound game plan. No?

  14. #59
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    Default ASM vs Hand Shuffle

    I play both. It doesn't matter in a column count. What's been played vs what's left to be played will always be the question.

    Hmmm. Never heard Tarzan complain about ASMs. No?

    The problem is you are comparing Tens/Aces played vs 2-6s with HiLo. Low heat, high spread? Buckle up. You're in for one helluva ride. Especially when the deck is rich in 7,8,9.

    High heat and low spread? Call Tarzan, stop playing, but for crissake quit complaining.

    How long are going to kick the can? Do something.
    Last edited by Moses; February 27th, 2020 at 12:42 PM.

  15. #60
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    KJ writes: And for the nay-sayers out there, usually talking out their ass, who say stupid things like card counting no longer works, Mr. Carlson re-confirms that it still does. You just have to work at it and maybe tweak some things from yesteryear, like escape at least some of the negative counts. But the math remains the same.

    Moses writes: More like algebra in today's pitch games. The problem is trying to allow for the small cards 2-7s. Without deep pen and a decent bet spread there is no time to recover from a loss. For instance you play two hands when the deck is rich in 10,A. Hi Opt II may reflect a high positive TC because 4,5s have been played. But the deck is rich in 2,3,6,7. So they come out, you lose your big bets, and now you have an excellent deck composition. Just one problem. Dealer is shuffling. So the key is to know when to wait for just one more hand. And that requires knowing the percentages of what's been played vs. still remains.

    Tarzan has it figured out in the shoe games. But there is no need to reduce the lowest column to 0 in pitch games. Simply remember the cards in columns.

    Thus the nay-sayers are playing too long and too hard. Why? They cannot recover from a high TC with a poor deck composition and limited spread. SCORE proves two things. 1.) You can still make a little money with a level 2 or 3 count. 2.) You better have the patience of Job. Is the game worthwhile with a tag assignment and an Ace side count?
    Not for me. With a column count? Yes. But I wouldn't travel to play. Too expensive and time consuming.


    Run a sim. Chart the View Logs. After about 100k hands, you will see a pattern develop.
    Last edited by Moses; February 28th, 2020 at 01:11 PM.

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