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Thread: There's no way around the variance

  1. #1
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    Default There's no way around the variance

    BJTF and some of the other forums have turned into a Debbie Downer lately. In spite of what Norm claims, there are many ways to reduce variance. But it is going to take some work. It is not maintream thinking and it does NOT sell a book.

    Tarzan count probably does more to reduce variance than any other. But why it is only slightly better than Wong Halves or Hi OPt II is a mystery. It's probably because his columns are out of alignment. Great for PE where allowed. Great for IC. But not a great BC count. It's counter productive to reduce the lowest column to zero in single or DD.

    The common answer seems to be "keep playing and things will get better." How about "work on your game so things don't get worse"? In a single deck or double deck it primarily comes down to "what is played vs what is left" and "what are you going to do about it vs what you are allowed to do about it." I have no idea about 6 decks. But LEGIONS of people claim to be making HUGE money at it all over the country with HiLo. More power to them. I'm not a buyer.

    BJTF members can't wait to jump on some poor bastard that is struggling with variance or playing a losing game. I don't know if T3 bumped his head or what. But lately he is giving sound advice (without all the bragging). It appears the primary reason most are struggling with variance is lack of proper money management, betting into decks with lousy composition, entitlement issues, poor work ethic, and playing shoes. I've maintained all along casinos could put HiLo count on a tote board behind the table and most would still lose money.
    Last edited by Moses; July 5th, 2018 at 09:04 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default

    Typically, the spotted dog has issues with both 6 deck and double deck and is not the expert this year than he was last year. Two completely different animals. Even though he employs a different count for each, the confusion will magnify and multiply from a lack of description in the first place. There should be two different threads. But Norm would not do or suggest this because he thrives on chaos and confusion.

    Create confusion to confound the understanding. It has nothing to do with becoming a better or more productive player. It has everything to do with generating several BS posts. So here is another thread that will go 200 posts and solve nothing.

    Wisdom is knowing the tomato is a fruit. Knowledge is knowing it does not belong in a fruit salad.
    Last edited by Moses; July 5th, 2018 at 09:28 AM.

  3. #3
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    Default

    Halves has a PE of 0.57. That is still far inferior to hi-opt 2's 0.67.

    False's spotted dog writes ^:

    Moses replies; Maybe go to False's library and read yet another book. You're the one complaining about losses and boasting about all the great games in your area. No? PE is great provided you're allowed to utilize all or most of the indices. Evidently that isn't working out so well for you. Perhaps introduce yourself to Mr. Sim and Mr. Verite. Since False represents 90% of your game improvement, I shutter to think what it was before.

    So you're side counting 7s? Okay, you have a large bet out. The 7s are exhausted and two other players are at the table not revealing their cards. You have 14vs10. Are you saying stand because you can't possibly get 21? What if dealer has an 8 or 9 in the hole? You didn't side count those cards. What if other players are tucking two 10s? Your chances increase of getting a small card like a 5 or 6. No?
    Last edited by Moses; July 6th, 2018 at 10:47 AM.

  4. #4
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    Default

    Halves PE can be tweaked.

    Freighter writes:


    with side counts? would a side count of 7 elevate PE to that of hi-opt 2?

    False's spotted dog writes:

    Moses replies: Stop worrying about your damn PE (unless you own a time machine) and start thinking about your SCORE. Run your sims. But input data that is allowed for casino play. NOT what you wish you could do to increase SCORE. Trying assigning the tag of 2 at 0 and 7 at 1 from Wong Halves and see if this doesn't improve your SCORE significantly for the DD game. Also try switching the tag values of the 3 and the 7. Now you've increased PE without reducing BC much. Now instead of side counting your damn 7s, use that brainpower for a 10 count. Guaranteed that will make your SCORE soar.
    Last edited by Moses; July 6th, 2018 at 11:00 AM.

  5. #5
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    Default Index plays for single deck

    If the SD game is heavily sweated you want to forgot some index plays or not sit through poor counts. Most opt for the former for obvious reasons if you ever played SD.

    T3 writes ^:

    Moses replies: Nice post T3: Win today. Play tomorrow. Focus on Ill 18. Get all out of it your brain can handle. Run your sims.

    Some are not allowed. Drop splitting 10s unless your goal is to become a dealer instead of a player. Drop 12v5,6. Add 14v10 (a biggie). Maybe add 13v4 and 14v2,3 (not a biggie). Forget that hairy high school BS of doubling soft 10s.

  6. #6
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    Counting Canadian has learned everything there is to know about blackjack and now has nothing left to do but revive old threads.........

    Dalmation writes ^:


    Moses replies: It appears you still have alot to learn about blackjack and your game. No? Ignorant post!

  7. #7
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    21FM, this thread was about blackjack index plays. No? Why mention SP21?

    Frank writes ^:

    I wanna be like another forum member
    21forme writes ^:

    Moses replies: 21Forme is not funny and not clever with his litte riddles that ridicule. Boring? Yes, right up there with False. One in the same? Perhaps. Not like it hasn't happened before. Start saying what it is you want to say. Stop being a weiner and a whiner.

    In essence, you took shot at all forum members by not mentioning the individual in your mind.

    Last edited by Moses; July 11th, 2018 at 10:07 AM.

  8. #8
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    Default Was my thinking Flawed?

    Not too long ago I found myself on the last day of a multi-day blackjack trip. The trip was not going well, but this day of the trip would determine if I would have a winning or losing trip. Pretty much from the start on this last day things were not looking good. I would win some big bets and lose some, but it was mostly a downward slide. I found myself down hundreds of dollars with only a couple hours left to play.

    To make matters worse, playing conditions were deteriorating. The table was filling up and soon there was a full table. There were always at least 6 or 7 players at the table, and we would only get 3 hands before shuffle (50% pen). At this point I assumed I would have a losing trip.

    However, I pretty much just sat there and played table min. I wasn't losing, but was slowly making a comeback. Then suddenly the opportunity for a big bet arose. If I was playing heads up of even with one or two other players I would have made a large bet. However, my thinking was since there were so many other players at the table the good hands would end up going to someone else. There would not be another hand. From years of experience I have not done well playing with crowded conditions.

    Anyway, I did make a large bet, but it was only about half the size I normally would make if I had decent conditions. I did win the hand, but if I had my normal large bet out there it would have been enough to bring me into the black. I was still down and in the red with time running out. So my question is did I have the same advantage with so many players at the table as I would have if playing heads up or with only one other person?

    PS. In the last few minutes of playing time left I did win enough to bring me slightly better then break even. The trip turned out to be good enough to go on the books as a winner, but not enough to cover all expenses.

    Midwest Player/Zen Zone hater writes:

    Bosox writes: Thanks for sharing that earth-shattering experience.


    Moses replies: Hilarious response Bosox. Dripping with sacasm. MP: Are you crazy? Or just plain stupid. Run Fowrest ruuun!

    ...And this story was brought to you by one of Norm's top APs. Ahem, where is the "A" in that story again?
    Last edited by Moses; September 19th, 2018 at 06:13 AM.

  9. #9
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    Default T3 on rampage...again

    I see T3 is on a ranting crusade with Don S on vacation. This time his opposition is Zee. T3, I can't say whether you are right or wrong because I can never discern WTF you are talking about. My feeling is you are more right than wrong.

    Why not just post your system? It should be simple. No? Bits and pieces here and there are clearly going nowhere.

    I'm just about curious enough to book a flight to your area and stay for a couple of days. IMO, it's about the only way I'm ever going to understand what appears to be very complex from the way you portray it on these forums.

    No, I don't believe HiLO is enough in pitch games. But then, I don't care WTH a newbie is doing. Very few counts would be enough.

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