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Thread: Create confusion to confound the understanding. Why?

  1. #1
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    Default Create confusion to confound the understanding. Why?

    It seems the goal of some blackjack forums is to never find resolution. So the chatter and clatter goes on with no end insight. It appears they are now reaching for topics to discuss and old methods that haven't been productive for years because the game has changed considerably.

    The basis, or Bible if you will, comes from a complex book written in the 70's by someone who could never respond after his passing. Thus mountains of conjecture have been created to say the least. But the one line I remember from his book is Good Engineers understand complex equations. Great engineers can make them simple again.

    Blackjack is somewhat like life. You have what is important and what is not. You'd want or should know what's been played and thus you'd also know what is left.

    There are primarily two simple options that covers 98% of the results. Instead of 28. If you believe in EoR then Wong Halves comes as close to ancient methods as you can get. If keeeping it simple with streamlined productivity is the goal, then simply give the tag value of the 2 in Wong Halves to the 7. In pitch games, the SCORE is quite a bit higher with the simpler count.

    Most everyone agrees the 8 is of 0 tag value. But what about the two? It takes you or the dealer to a stop at 15 16. Otherwise, it's just a card that adjusts the count. The 5 takes you or the dealer to a stop at 12,13,14,15,16, thus it's the highest EoR card in the deck. The 7 and 3 offer 3 stops from 14. The 6 offers 4 stops from 12. The 4 offers 4 stops from 13.

    Sidecounting the Ace is important in the single and double deck games. But you do it on your fingers as opposed to a mental count in your mind. This will free up space to see other opportunities. Let the game come to you. Calculating on the fly in the heat of the game to determine how much or when to bet is not practical. You will see your opportunites coming 1 or 2 hands in advance and the amount is predetermined what is played and what still remains. The most lucrative point of side counting the Ace is on larger bets for the purpose of insurance . Why? Because you are insuring more money on the table.

    Why in world AP's continue to guess when they can determine exact with relatively the same amount of brainpower has also been perplexing to me. So they come up with more terms to create more discussion and more confusion and more ridicule. Most of that talk has little impact on the ultimate success or failure of your game. The count, your bet, your next move is what determines the financial rewards. Knowing what's been played and still remains is the freeway to your destination. Dirt roads and the old two lane highways come with too many obstacles.
    Last edited by Moses; April 20th, 2018 at 09:55 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default How do I get being cheated out of my head

    A baseball pitcher said the biggest adjustment to pitching in the majors in you have to get used to losing. Even the best teams of all time still lost 40% of their games.

    This is a viable concern, not just in blackjack, but in life. The EV can be devestating if fooled in either.

    Game selection is your key. Game improvement is vital...and that doesn't come without work. In short, "if you can't beat Verite in the peace of your home, how do you expect to take a big piece from a casino that is designed to stop you"?

    Hmmm, the guy that is 10 times greater counter than most will ever be? Yet knows very little about game selection, work ethic, and deck composition. The bigger question to ask yourself "is this game fair." If not, then walking away makes you a winner because playing it makes you lose. Then you have to find a fair game to play, and win, just to break even.

    These lifelong playing theories are BULL. It's about YOU, and what is within your control. Take it one session at a time. Win 60% of your sessions. Winning just under the upside of casino tolerance and leaving just below the downside of your tolerance which equals the casino upside. Some of these forums have put far too much shit in your head.
    Last edited by Moses; August 17th, 2018 at 04:16 AM.

  3. #3
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    Variance is biting me this month. Last month, I won 15 of 17 sessions and I won $8k+, Last three sessions, lost $1100, $1120 and $1570. Hope the losing stops soon.

    Zee writes ^:

    Moses replies: What is wrong with this picture? Winning 15 out of 17 sessions just under the edge of casino tolerance is extremely rare and just asking for the escort to the Exit sign. Then he gave nearly 1/2 of it back in just 3 sessions. Clearly, he has never learned the art of ducking. Hope isn't the answer. Doing something about it IS the answer.

    This month is half over. So Zee has only played 20 sessions over the course of 6 weeks. Also, cost of travel is not mentioned. But considering the distance between casino you could probably factor in $1000 expense.

    Last edited by Moses; August 17th, 2018 at 10:08 AM.

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    Disagree. If you’re playing $800/hand, then you’re going it get backed off regardless, rated or unrated; it’s just a matter of time. So if you go in and play rated, you might only get 1 hr of play before getting tapped. But if you play unrated, you may get more time. Maybe 10 hrs... who knows? In that event, would getting a comped cheese burger be worth sacrificing that 9 hrs of play?

    Example: I had one place I was playing earlier this year. I was pretty aggressive with them, betting 1x25 to 2x500, which was table max on all their tables except for two. If I could get a seat on their $1,000 max table (it was sometimes closed), I was spreading 1x25 to 2x700. I lasted 3 trips there and got a total of 21.5 hrs of play. When I finally got backed off and had to CTR to cash out (because I stockpiled their chips and rarely cashed out), they updated my OSN profile. So obviously, this casino is an observer and contributor. If I would have started off playing rated, it’s very possible I would have been backed off within my first hour, because all they would have had to do is search my name.

    Ryemo the great writes ^:

    Moses replies: Maybe twice in my life I've witnessed a player betting pinks or higher. Both came out losers. But yes, definately had everyones attention...including the criminals.

    Famous Bonnie and Clyde qoute, "they hate us but they can't stop us." Ahem, how did that movie end again?

    Is goes without saying Ryemo is the only one playing in that casino with such a large spread. He wouldn't have lasted 21.5 if he was kicking their ass. So, a little old guy walks by and sees the enormous amount of chips on the table. Maybe even watches awhile. HE appears harmless. But it's who he informs that is not harmless. Perhaps a few people gather to watch this Rock Star because they haven't seen anyone play at those stakes before. The casino owes Ryemo nothing outside the casino doors. He is a stranger with no ID.

    Let's say he averaged $100 an hour. That's $2,150 over 3 trips minus travel costs for each trip. The family left behind still has to eat. Perfect example of the mantra "bet alot, ride the waves of variance, to make a little." He has already said that once caught, one is flyered all over town and even the state.

    Now, for all you who admire him so much. You go into play and now the casino has changed the rules, reduced pen, and put a strong clamp on bet spreads. Hooray! Horray! I'm now playing more and getting less. Bonnie and Clyde personified.
    Last edited by Moses; August 17th, 2018 at 11:09 AM.

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    Honestly, most of my EV on shoe games is between $200 to $300/hr ON AVERAGE. It really depends on the cuts though. After skimming through my notes, I've played some games where my hourly rate was $150/hr and $360/hr was my highest for SHOE games. But DD is a whole different story. If you find DD with decent rules and a good cuts, you can easily achieve $400 to $500/hr with top bets ranging 2x500 or higher. I had one casino that I was playing this year that let me play about 45 hours over the course of several trips before back off. My EV on that game was about $400/hr. I won't say it was in the middle of nowhere, but it wasn't a big casino town. I'll leave it at that. Casinos are unpredictable. Some places will back you off in minutes. Some will let you play a few hours. Some will let you play 10 hrs. Some might let you play several trips over the course of 2 or 3 months. You just don't know. And trust me, if there is place that will let you play for a long time, no one is openly sharing that information. In my opinion, you're more likely to find really tolerant (or stupid) casinos in the middle of nowhere, as opposed to bigger casino towns.
    Ryemo the great writes ^:

    Moses replies; BJTF Black Jack Trivial Fuckers. Okay, let's take Mr Ineverlose numbers. He plays 45 over the course of several trips. Averages $500 per hour. So he sucked $22,500 out of that casino before they bounce his ass. Considering this was a small town, he not only lost future play at that casino, but the entire community. Maybe even the state. HE left out the cost involved in "several" trips. Casinos are unpredictable? Actually, it's just the opposite. It stands to reason they are not going to offer a game that allows one to walk in and fuck them at will. This wins and lossses will create a mighty swing. They will catch you in one of the swings and say NO MAS. So you could get caught in a $20K downswing as well. Walking in with an attitude of a stupid casino in the middle of nowhere with a bundle of cash might find you beat up and broke. Who's is going to care? That guy was arrogant fucker in the first place. Ever get a traffic ticket in a small town. You're pretty much fucked.

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    Here’s a news flash: Anybody who is a winning player, no matter the level, is a “threat”. All companies, and this includes casinos, want all their customers to be positive EV. I know there are exceptions but for the most part this is true. When companies find negative EV customers, they try to get rid of them. I have pointed this out with an example from Amazon. They back off customers who return too many packages, even though these customers are following procedures and technically not doing anything wrong. Why? Because these customers have become negative EV. Are these customers going to bankrupt Amazon? Of course not. Are there going to eat into Amazon’s profits? Yes! And guess what? Companies like to make as much profit as possible. Some APs call this “greed”. Smart people call it being a good business. Btw, this is why businesses exists.

    I know Three also has a hard time understanding this concept. No business likes negative EV customers. This idea that there is some arbitrary “threat” level is just plain stupid. Obviously, casinos (any business for that matter) are going to spend more time and resources going after the big negative EV customers than the smaller negative EV custimers. But they will still pick off a low level negative EV customer when they know that person is extracting money from the casino. I’m a prime example. I’m a very low level player but I have been picked off by casinos several times. I’m smarter today with regard to bj and have been able to play rated at quite a few casinos now without getting picked off and I get great comps.

    I don’t expect you or some others to understand this concept but I’m sure there will be some on this site that get it. One more time for emphasis: Any player (small, medium or big) that is playing a winning game is a “threat” to a casino. Why? Because casinos are a business and they like to make as much money as possible.

    DBS writes;

    Moses replies: It seems you guys send alot of time in debate over trivial matters. Time that would be better spent improving your game. But we have comments from Mr. Perfect (Ryemo) vs Mr. Pit Boss (DBS). The answer is in between. Casinos that send out the message of you can't win will soon be paying dealers to stand around at empty tables. What you guys see driving all over states or working in a casino I can see in a few short walks. Hence, a confident player attracts ploppies. An arrogant player runs them off.

    I don't think too much about how a casino is operated. It's about get in, get paid, get out. Within casino tolerance. Win today. Play tomorrow.


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    As far as the casinos only caring about the big player, I didn’t say that. Reread my post. They care about anybody that is winning. They aren’t in the business of giving out money, even to small time APs. I get that. That was my point. They see anybody that is a consistent winner as a “threat”.

    I understand your point about casinos not liking people walking out with money, even just a couple hundred. That’s why I’ve become an expert ratholer. I only rathole green chips but I’m good at it. Being a former amateur magician, I’m pretty good at getting them off the table without anybody noticing. I’ve even done it while talking to a pit boss and they didn’t have a clue what I was doing. Here’s a tip for people on ratholing. I only rathole to my back pocket. And I mostly do it when I go for my phone, which is in my back pocket.

    I know some pros advise against ratholing but they are wrong, wrong and wrong again. If you’re going to play at your local casino rated, which I do, then you need to learn to rathole so their records on you show you’re a loser. As we all know, casinos don’t like winners. It’s our job to show them we’re losers. This is part of getting away with it.

    DBS writes ^:

    Moses replies: Yes, I would say your assessment in the first paragraph is correct in at least 60% of the casinos. Don't play those casinos is the answer becaue they can hurt you in so many ways other than just 86ing.

    But ratholing is not the answer. The worst thing you can do is insult the EITS. And ratholing is at the top of the list of insults. What, you think they were born yesterday?

    The casino is our foe;

    Moses replies: The casino is our opponent. It is also our bank. If you keep biting the hand that feeds you, "it's winner, winner no more free dinner." Again, with HiLo you're making it easy peasy for them to follow your bet pattern in a pitch game. A 10 year old could do it.
    Last edited by Moses; August 18th, 2018 at 01:19 PM.

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