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Thread: Back in my BR Building Days ....

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2011

    Default Back in my BR Building Days ....

    Way back, years ago in my BR building days, right after increasing my max bet I went on a 1 week losing streak and most 1/3rd of my BR. I drew down to a lower max bet and immediately went on a winning run. Needless to say it took a lot longer to make it back with the lower max bet than it did to lose it with the higher max bet.

    I can't remember for sure what my max bet was as that was
    many-many years ago. It was either $400 or $500. Making the loss either 40 or 50 max bets.

    No, I found
    it, max bet was $400 so it was a 50 max bet losing run. It was a $20K downturn in about 36 hours of play, mostly heads up, at an average speed of 175 rounds per hour. For a total of 6300 rounds. SD was about $1K/100 rounds. So 1 SD for the 6300 rounds was $7.94K. That makes it just a -2.52 sigma event. But when adjusting for things I do that can't be simmed, or at least would be a royal pain in the ass to sim, my SD is much lower. But back in those ancient early career days I hadn't learned as much so the lowering of SD would have been much more modest. 50 max bets was probably a -3 or -4 sigma event.

    I have done the 40 max bet thing a few times in the last 4 years. For my approach now that is also a $20K downswing. Today SD is about $1200/100 rounds for the sim. My actual SD is lower. The events occurred over many more rounds except for one which was just somewhat more rounds.

    Probably -2 sigma events. I am surprised I don't have more but I do all the stuff people say isn't worth it and much more to tighten up decision bell curves which
    helps control swings. Increased certainty mutes swings. Game selection can increase or decrease certainty. As you can see from the thread game selection is the primary driver of the huge outliers in SD. Approach is less of a factor but definitely can help reduce the duration of downturns. Unfortunately from my experience the severity of downturns during the shorter duration is not affected much but by limiting the length the net worse case severity is reduced.

    I choose not to play at stakes any higher than two hands at $500 because I am comfortable with the EV my much more tolerated stakes allow. It pays that bills and helps toward retirement. Everyone is different. Nothing wrong with the aggressive approach. It can be very effective. Most I know that did it speak about it in terms that imply they don't like all the consequences of where that road leads even if they don't truly regret the decision to follow that path (KJ comes to mind).

    Last edited by Lady Tthree; September 12th, 2017 at 02:48 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2011


    What game are you talking about?
    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!
    T3 is no threat to any casino because he spends most of his time bragging on BTF.
    T3: Talk The Talk.

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