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Thread: Back in my BR Building Days ....

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    952

    Default Back in my BR Building Days ....

    Way back, years ago in my BR building days, right after increasing my max bet I went on a 1 week losing streak and most 1/3rd of my BR. I drew down to a lower max bet and immediately went on a winning run. Needless to say it took a lot longer to make it back with the lower max bet than it did to lose it with the higher max bet.

    I can't remember for sure what my max bet was as that was
    many-many years ago. It was either $400 or $500. Making the loss either 40 or 50 max bets.

    No, I found
    it, max bet was $400 so it was a 50 max bet losing run. It was a $20K downturn in about 36 hours of play, mostly heads up, at an average speed of 175 rounds per hour. For a total of 6300 rounds. SD was about $1K/100 rounds. So 1 SD for the 6300 rounds was $7.94K. That makes it just a -2.52 sigma event. But when adjusting for things I do that can't be simmed, or at least would be a royal pain in the ass to sim, my SD is much lower. But back in those ancient early career days I hadn't learned as much so the lowering of SD would have been much more modest. 50 max bets was probably a -3 or -4 sigma event.

    I have done the 40 max bet thing a few times in the last 4 years. For my approach now that is also a $20K downswing. Today SD is about $1200/100 rounds for the sim. My actual SD is lower. The events occurred over many more rounds except for one which was just somewhat more rounds.

    Probably -2 sigma events. I am surprised I don't have more but I do all the stuff people say isn't worth it and much more to tighten up decision bell curves which
    helps control swings. Increased certainty mutes swings. Game selection can increase or decrease certainty. As you can see from the thread game selection is the primary driver of the huge outliers in SD. Approach is less of a factor but definitely can help reduce the duration of downturns. Unfortunately from my experience the severity of downturns during the shorter duration is not affected much but by limiting the length the net worse case severity is reduced.

    I choose not to play at stakes any higher than two hands at $500 because I am comfortable with the EV my much more tolerated stakes allow. It pays that bills and helps toward retirement. Everyone is different. Nothing wrong with the aggressive approach. It can be very effective. Most I know that did it speak about it in terms that imply they don't like all the consequences of where that road leads even if they don't truly regret the decision to follow that path (KJ comes to mind).

    .
    Last edited by Lady Tthree; September 12th, 2017 at 01:48 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    506

    Default

    What game are you talking about?
    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!
    T3 is no threat to any casino because he spends most of his time bragging on BTF.
    T3: Talk The Talk.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    804

    Default Worst Player in Recent Memory

    I have to nominate a guy who "counts" HiLo but doesn't do TC conversion, Splits ALL 10's vs. 4,5,6, DOUBLES DOWN on HARD 12, 13, 14, 15 & YES 16 if he's in a "negative " count. Thinks he can actually "call" the dealers hit card and may do or not do ALL of this insanity on "feel" & of course the eternal Magic FLOW of the cards. This individual loves to attack my play and my SIMS BTW at every opportunity as well because he has 60 WHOLE hours of "Real life" casino "experience " so what could I possibly know???*

    DM writes:

    Moses replies: Are we suppose to guess? Is this a poll? A troll? Help me out Fat Bumblebee.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    506

    Default

    Not sure. There seem to be many "new" members on that site lately. Could be casino employees, trolls, or even prostitutes!
    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!
    T3 is no threat to any casino because he spends most of his time bragging on BTF.
    T3: Talk The Talk.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
    Posts
    804

    Default

    Bob 21/DBS; Please reread my posts.

    This is a T3 line personified. Great! IF you want to belittle, insult, and piss off a bunch of people.

    Bob 21/DBS; We’re all entitled to our opinion.

    Sometimes no opinion is the best one. Most don't care either way on the particular subject involved. Compare the same article to the posts at BJTF. I realize you LOVE to debate. I'm just saying, pick your spots wisely. Hence, make sure it's worth an argument. Otherwise, you turn into a KJ who just wants to rant.

    When I said “you”, I meant the collective you on this site. Go back and read the posts on this thread.

    Then say y'all. In case you haven't noticed? You have no friends at this site. Or at BJTF. Are you really ready to be a Lone Wolf? Hmmm, I don't think so. No offense.
    The words "you're right - my bad" takes you out of this insignificant argument. Translation "I'll be back for a topic more worthwhile." If you want to be on the side of casinos? Trust me. Another KJ rant is coming soon. There is your target and where your best debate skills will be challenged. Right now, you sound like T3. You called every poster in that 93 post thread an idiot.



    Last edited by Moses; March 12th, 2019 at 07:50 AM.

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