
Originally Posted by
Villiam
I won't argue long...
BUT, the 8% you mention incidentally matches up almost exactly with the edge PER HAND as far as win or lose is concerned. The edge on a PER HAND basis IS 7.79% or thereabouts (someone correct my hairline decimal). The thing is Katz, blackjacks, doubles and splits, and doubles after splits makes up the difference. This doesn't get you even though unless you are playing a given amount more money when you are ahead of the house (1.5 TC or better). This amount has to at least make up for the difference in times that you will not have such advantage. SO, if you are properly bankrolled and you can double and split at will and you can raise your bets enough with the advantage then you will win long run. PERIOD. The thing is, the SDs and wild swings up until that point make me just want to wince and give up. Now, if I was properly bankrolled I do believe that I could play like a fucking robot for long enough assuming no heat issues that it would play out as a win. Whether it was worth my time or anyone else's is another question. Personally, I think it just isn't going to even be fun unless you can spread healthily and have average bets in the 30-40$ range. I can't take that variance without a 10k bankroll.
I played poker online for a long time. Average cash game advantage for pros in somewhere around 7%. I never played cash games. Never. I only played tourneys. With my additional knowledge and prowess I could best most cash game experts. My running ROI for TWO YEARS was 40%. So for every dollar I invested I was pulling out $1.40. But guess what, the swings were so bad that even with said 40% advantage, I would tank in certain weeks or even months where I couldn't win. I was okay with this. I wish I was better rolled and more fearless actually before the big Black Friday obliteration. But the point remains, it was not an easy path, for anyone, period, BECAUSE OF THE SWINGS. You have to be able to finally recognize what a .5% or 1% advantage is--to do this you have to reach what is called N0, and rather than belabor the math of it, let's just say it's a fuckton of hands required to even register said advantage for real.
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