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Thread: Basic Strategy Effected by Bad Players?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Did ANYBODY ever win decent $$$ using just basic strategy?
    IMO, not by flat betting. Only by luckily arranging their bets using a spread, the bigger the better.

    BTW, I consider most CCing triumphs luck without a proper analysis of N0 and the right volume of play.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjarg View Post
    I dont think anybody called you an idiot (yet), but with the bunch of crap you are posting you are not doing anything to help keep it that way.
    Crap? Now I know why... Jealousy. I'm sorry that you are not me, that I am the "big" thing in the blackjack world and that my website is less than two months old and not even complete yet has 50,000 hits a day. This last post was a test on a theory, you THOUGHT it was on basic strategy but remember I said there were "two parts" to this theory. The second part was to see if there was anyone here that could hold a conversation without "hating." That is not possible, like a rat at the trap you fell for it, I have my answer to my two part theory = a bunch of bored miserable and ignorant rock throwing idiots (Villiam, Katz and ZG seem to be the only ones here who knows what a "discussion" is). Enjoy your cages, you all should be ashamed of yourselves, seriously, you are a disgrace to humanity. FYI I receive emails, texts, and phone calls daily about my crap making people money $$$ not to mention the $400 - $200 dollars a day that crap brings in on YouTube and I donate to the Humane Society. Have a wonderful life, I found many years ago that one should not surround themselves with negative and ignorant people for you too are likely to become such.

  3. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by morgenstern View Post
    Crap? Now I know why... Jealousy. I'm sorry that you are not me, that I am the "big" thing in the blackjack world and that my website is less than two months old and not even complete yet has 50,000 hits a day. This last post was a test on a theory, you THOUGHT it was on basic strategy but remember I said there were "two parts" to this theory. The second part was to see if there was anyone here that could hold a conversation without "hating." That is not possible, like a rat at the trap you fell for it, I have my answer to my two part theory = a bunch of bored miserable and ignorant rock throwing idiots (Villiam, Katz and ZG seem to be the only ones here who knows what a "discussion" is). Enjoy your cages, you all should be ashamed of yourselves, seriously, you are a disgrace to humanity. FYI I receive emails, texts, and phone calls daily about my crap making people money $$$ not to mention the $400 - $200 dollars a day that crap brings in on YouTube and I donate to the Humane Society. Have a wonderful life, I found many years ago that one should not surround themselves with negative and ignorant people for you too are likely to become such.
    It's not jealousy. You're just the latest person to present themselves as some hot-shot blackjack player, who clearly has very little understanding of the game. The question you asked very, very clearly illustrates that your understanding of blackjack is minimal at best. Having a popular youtube video says nothing whatsoever about your ability to understand blackjack.

    If you came here as a humble beginner with the same question, you'd be much better received. But you came in as some self-described expert, with an outsized ego. Blackjack experts / professionals do NOT ask this question, any more than a mathematician would ask "is 2+2 always 4? What about when..."

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    IMO, not by flat betting. Only by luckily arranging their bets using a spread, the bigger the better.
    It is not a matter of opinion.
    It is a fact that there are many many professional players that have made serious money using just basic strategy and flat betting, myself included.
    The only AP technique in blackjack that requires play deviations or betting spread is card counting (and its derivations).
    Some of them dont require a playing strategy at all, not even basic.
    So the answer to Katz question is yes.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by morgenstern View Post
    Crap? Now I know why... Jealousy. I'm sorry that you are not me, that I am the "big" thing in the blackjack world and that my website is less than two months old and not even complete yet has 50,000 hits a day. This last post was a test on a theory, you THOUGHT it was on basic strategy but remember I said there were "two parts" to this theory. The second part was to see if there was anyone here that could hold a conversation without "hating." That is not possible, like a rat at the trap you fell for it, I have my answer to my two part theory = a bunch of bored miserable and ignorant rock throwing idiots (Villiam, Katz and ZG seem to be the only ones here who knows what a "discussion" is). Enjoy your cages, you all should be ashamed of yourselves, seriously, you are a disgrace to humanity. FYI I receive emails, texts, and phone calls daily about my crap making people money $$$ not to mention the $400 - $200 dollars a day that crap brings in on YouTube and I donate to the Humane Society. Have a wonderful life, I found many years ago that one should not surround themselves with negative and ignorant people for you too are likely to become such.
    You got me...

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by morgenstern View Post
    Crap? Now I know why... Jealousy. I'm sorry that you are not me, that I am the "big" thing in the blackjack world and that my website is less than two months old and not even complete yet has 50,000 hits a day. This last post was a test on a theory, you THOUGHT it was on basic strategy but remember I said there were "two parts" to this theory. The second part was to see if there was anyone here that could hold a conversation without "hating." That is not possible, like a rat at the trap you fell for it, I have my answer to my two part theory = a bunch of bored miserable and ignorant rock throwing idiots (Villiam, Katz and ZG seem to be the only ones here who knows what a "discussion" is). Enjoy your cages, you all should be ashamed of yourselves, seriously, you are a disgrace to humanity. FYI I receive emails, texts, and phone calls daily about my crap making people money $$$ not to mention the $400 - $200 dollars a day that crap brings in on YouTube and I donate to the Humane Society. Have a wonderful life, I found many years ago that one should not surround themselves with negative and ignorant people for you too are likely to become such.
    Since I am not listed with Villiam, Katz and ZG as knowing what a discussion is, I must be included in the jealous, bored, miserable, rock-throwing, "hating" idiots. I am not "hating", nor jealous, nor do I think I have been dis-respectful to you in any way. I just stated my opinion that I don't find your whole situation all that credible and find you to be lacking in some basic knowledge needed before one even considers professional blackjack play. Barge and myself share a concern about newer players being mislead. We both have paid a price in this community for speaking up when we saw that situation. But, I am not sure this IS the same situation. To be honest I am not sure what you are really doing.

    A while back, I saw a number of videos of a guy, (not you, but a different younger guy) playing BJ online, or virtual blackjack or whatever it is called. He always was losing and complaining like hell. Losing hundreds, sometimes even thousands of dollars per hand...and frankly often he was making the wrong play. Seemed like he was more interested in his status of some sort of youtube celebrity status than legit blackjack play. I don't know how any of that works. So I asked around and someone told me that the youtube video people make money based on how many people follow them. And that this young guy who was always losing hundreds and thousands of dollars was actually making money because he had so many followers. Again, this industry is completely foreign to me.....I don't know how any of that works.

    So here's where this ties into you, Michael Morgenstern. The first video I saw of you it looked like and I thought you were talking about pure brick and mortar casino blackjack play, and my first impression was I didn't find your claims all that credible. If you had indeed made the kind of money you suggested, there was some element of good fortune involved. I didn't jump on your credibility like Bjarg and I did with a previous member of this community because I didn't see the same level of danger of misleading newer players. It's only when it becomes a REAL problem as the previous case did.....and I know you Michael don't know what I am referring to, but others here do.

    So anyway, then when this new video came to light here you point out the dealer mistake or mis-deal....(cheating), I looks more and more like you are involved more in the online virtual thing and less about brick and mortar casinos like I originally thought. And I am wondering if you aren't in the same situation where it is more about this youtube celebrity status and however that translates to income, which again, I have no idea about.

    So really, I don't know and don't really care what you are doing. If it's a youtube celebrity thing that generates income that I don't understand....power to you. If you are presenting yourself as a legitimate brick and mortar blackjack professional player, you are not....even if you have had some success. There is just too much basic stuff you don't seem to know.... at least at this point. Maybe you are learning and that's cool, we all went through that. I wish you luck.

    But so far I don't see you as a threat to newer players, in as far as intentional misleading, so I don't feel I have attacked you or "hated" on you. Just voiced an opinion when asked.
    Last edited by KJ; February 27th, 2017 at 01:27 PM.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjarg View Post
    It is not a matter of opinion.
    It is a fact that there are many many professional players that have made serious money using just basic strategy and flat betting, myself included.
    The only AP technique in blackjack that requires play deviations or betting spread is card counting (and its derivations).
    Some of them dont require a playing strategy at all, not even basic.
    So the answer to Katz question is yes.
    Ah yes... Meanwhile, I lost 2k of a 3k bank playing a more conservative spread, dropping out anytime count went to -1 and employing 40 different strategy variations with a ROR of less than 5%. The first sentence you wrote here struck me as WAY OFF: "there are many many professional players that have made serious money using just basic strategy and flat betting." Really, so you are saying MM is perfectly legit then, an obvious "professional" in your words, just asks terrible questions. I'm just saying-- you can show that the math can result in positive short-run swings, even uncharacteristic long-term swings (that are still by nature short-term, even as they last 50 years of a person's life), but you CANNOT show that basic strategy makes serious money in the long-term, ever. As you approach N0 your results standardize according to some SDs. The fact is the only the MOST LUCKY (we are talking less than 1%) are on the positive side of even money at this point. This is obviously the point of Katz's question whether he understands the math behind it or not.

    Even the wildly disrespected, by some in the community at least, Eliot J., says it in the most clear manner possible in his book. (Quoting Arnold Snyder) YOU WILL LOSE! without question by employing BS, but you will lose less than ploppies, and even if you employ a truly professional strategy of CCing Snyder insists it is a strong likelihood that you will eat crow.

    SO, MM wants to see if there's more optimal playing decisions that can be based on minute understandings of EOR and the picture on the board, let's say. Meanwhile, Katz just wants to know--can you beat the game long-term with BS? The answers are limited and negative, I'm sorry to say. While I have heard Tarzan and T3 going off on the value of betting bins and hi-level, multi-faceted counts (if you don't know what I'm talking about do some research and see how fast your fucking head spins) I think these are likely more useful on single or double deck or in games as T3 plays that involve a complication of rules (SP21) and big-payoff side bets that can be side counted. In fact, I made very clear in the thread that resulted in my leaving BJINFO that T3 was not playing the same game as others at all and that it was mostly his side bets alone that were resulting in reported expectations that crushed any those should have when just CCing BJ. This resulted in an outright FUROR, with N0rm suspending me as I told all the suck-ups there that they were sycophants because they were. This was deemed name-calling (do you see a trend with all the free speech policing going on these days?) even though I was simply stating facts as they were pathetic and did not listen to my point before ungraciously flaying themselves to prove a point (god knows what). Since then, T3 has been outed for what he is, an obfuscater, who otherwise may be on to some seriously awesome shit. It's a shame that not even Don S could put together WHY he was able to post such uncharacteristic results with low variance though. I think we all could benefit from new better systems but we are too busy arguing and not listening to do it.

    Btw, the idea that the ONLY AP tech in BJ that REQUIRES a spread is card counting is patently silly. You can employ many different spreads, first of all, there is no required spread per game, just recommended based on optimization and risk. You aren't REQUIRED any particular spread ever. Do a quick analysis of a flat bettor BS player's expected results vs a random ramper/spreader with a playing field of 1-15x and it will show ya really quickly how much of an AP technique it is even if you know nothing about card counting. So please don't be an ass as well Bjarg, admit that you were off here.

    I sometimes respond with a disproportionate amount of bluster, and I hope I haven't here, but I appreciate the couple of people here who have recognized I'm only ever trying to give the straight dish and am completely willing to be proven wrong/educated right. Thanks esp to Katz, for stating the truth. I am as equally unimpressed with the amount of unnecessary ego-bias and defensiveness without actual listening that goes on in forums. Comparing ZZ to BJINFO however, one can see a rather large difference in allowed talk. SO PLEASE, the BEST AND MOST WISE HERE, PLEASE HAND ME MY ASS ON A PLATE IF IM WRONG ABOUT ANY OF THIS BY EVEN A CUNT HAIR. And of course help to clarify as well.

    P.S., Speaking of allowed talk, Bjarg, maybe I'm just not professional enough because I had massive loses over many sessions? MM had a pit guy on the show a week ago that reaffirmed the possibility that ASMs can be programmed without a hint of hesitation. This notion has resulted in many BJINFO commenters being BANISHED for it's HERESY, esp against the completely trustworthy LV gaming commission (according to N0rm, lol). SO, maybe had I been aware of that I wouldn't have been ousted and ass-handed, right? Lol, probably not.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    MM had a pit guy on the show a week ago that reaffirmed the possibility that ASMs can be programmed without a hint of hesitation. This notion has resulted in many BJINFO commenters being BANISHED for it's HERESY, esp against the completely trustworthy LV gaming commission (according to N0rm, lol). SO, maybe had I been aware of that I wouldn't have been ousted and ass-handed, right? Lol, probably not.
    Norm is just flat out wrong on this issue. I give him the benefit of doubt that he is not intentionally misleading and it's more a case of his actual expertise lies more in programming and clinical side of blackjack than actual play, especially in recent years. The older first generation of these machines may not have had the capability but the newer generation definitely does. These sequencing functions, and there are several, requires what they call a "key", I call it a code or PIN number, that is entered, to access this function. Only the higher up personnel are supposed to have access to this "key" to access this function. I personally have witnessed this procedure and I have several friends in the industry, one at such a higher up level that have verified what I am stating.

    I am not suggesting that there is widespread cheating going on. I have seen no evidence of such, although I do have one location that my personal results have made me hesitant to play against their ASM game. I would think there isn't widespread cheating, especially in regulated locations like Nevada, because there would be a high price to pay in fines and an even higher price to public exposure or even suggestion of cheating. And there just is no need for that....they already have a built in advantage. But never underestimate human greed. The technology and capability is there, so don't dismiss the possibility.

    Where can I see the MM video with the pit guy?
    Last edited by KJ; February 27th, 2017 at 02:13 PM.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Norm is just flat out wrong on this issue.
    It's like, WOW... The reason I quickly departed that site was that things quickly disintegrated into personal attacks, the moderator being the most guilty of them. How it is not a personal attack to relegate any talk of potential ASM counter-measures to the "Disadvantage Forum"? This may not be intentionally mal-intentioned but give me a break! What a faggot. To me this is major, and the reason why is it's yet another example of aggressive misleading of new players as well as shitting on their amateur theories. It's a fuckin' joke over there.


    Anyway, search Michael Morgenstern pit boss in the youtube search line. Interview starts at 54 mins. Guy literally works in Vegas and he even says his name so I bet you know him, KJ. Btw, I agree with everything you said earlier re the issue at hand and I'm wondering if I can help you edit your book. (I honestly just want to know your full story, as I still have hopes and dreams of making this my life, but I figured I could offer you a little value in return.)

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    I'm wondering if I can help you edit your book. (I honestly just want to know your full story, as I still have hopes and dreams of making this my life, but I figured I could offer you a little value in return.)
    I have kind of pulled out of my book deal, or at least put it on 'deep' hold, for the time being. And being that the publisher, a well known gambling book publisher here in Vegas, is a little perturbed about that situation, I am not sure he will want to give me another chance when and if I am ready.

    I really am not ready to write my book. I am still in the midst of my career and that story might be better told at the end, so as not to jeopardize any current opportunities.

    I kind of moved the book deal up in time last year because of the feud with Norm and forum wars and my banning from not only Norm's site, but WoV. I kind of wanted to use the book to tell my side of the story and planned an extensive chapter(s) on the dysfunction of blackjack/AP message board community. But towards the end of last year, I decided that wasn't a top priority to me any longer. I feel Norm has pretty much exposed himself to be the manipulative ego maniac that he is. No need for me to do it.

    I have shared a lot of my story (sometimes too much) in bits and pieces and if there is interest, will probably put it all together at the appropriate time. I just no longer think that time is now. The second issue I have is that I am not looking to make a profit off of sharing my story. I want the cost to be minimal....I would like it to be free, but that's not practical as there are costs involved, but the publisher and I have very different goals in this area.
    Last edited by KJ; February 27th, 2017 at 04:08 PM. Reason: spelling

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjarg View Post
    It is not a matter of opinion.
    It is a fact that there are many many professional players that have made serious money using just basic strategy and flat betting, myself included.
    The only AP technique in blackjack that requires play deviations or betting spread is card counting (and its derivations). Some of them dont require a playing strategy at all, not even basic.
    So the answer to Katz question is yes.
    OK, so it can be done... at least, way back in the Olden Days before the dreaded 126CSM took over. The best I ever did was a $28,000 win one night when all my planets aligned. That was the very brief good news. The bad news is I lost probably $500,000 playing BS over 20 years before I finally woke up. That's when I became a card counter...and I could count down a deck in less than 30 secs...wow! But alas, I am also a failed card counter, of which I am sure there are many tens of thousands just like me out there licking their wounds.

    First and foremost, casinos hand out free BS charts for the ignorant, stupid and unwary. This alone is very suspicious... it implies the mark CAN win at Blackjack playing just BS. Yes, of course it's possible to win. The planets align for everyone, at least once, sooner or later! But the fact is the poor dumb mark sitting with 5 or 6 others at a CSM table has very little chance of coming out ahead. After all, CSMs have proved to be a goldmine for casinos... so here, take this and memorize it. It's our FREE BASIC STRATEGY CHART that can help you win [especially made for donkeys like you. Good luck mate, you sure as hell gonna need it].

    And er, all these so-called experts tell me a perfect BS player has a slight math edge or close to it. I call bullshit on that. Maybe they are correct for ONE deck, but with multiple decks... no
    Last edited by Katz; February 27th, 2017 at 08:22 PM.

  12. #27
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    Villiam, your post is just too long to read.
    There are very few people from whom I would read a post that long, and you are not one of them.
    Let me just give you two examples of ways you could make serious money in blackjack flat betting and playing basic strategy:
    1) Loss rebates team play.
    2) Playing promotions that make games have an off the top advantage.
    Solo APs and teams have made and continue to make millions with these two only (there are more).
    So the answer to Katz question is YES.

  13. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    So anyway, then when this new video came to light here you point out the dealer mistake or mis-deal....(cheating), I looks more and more like you are involved more in the online virtual thing and less about brick and mortar casinos like I originally thought.
    My understanding is that MM was following up on a tip from someone else who does play online.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
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    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  14. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Basic strategy was not designed nor based on anyone doing anything, as far as other players, as a matter of fact I would say just the opposite. A good basic strategy player will play the same way regardless of how others play. How other players...wait what....other players? (long running community joke), but how other players play has zero effect on basic strategy.
    Contrary to conventional wisdom, how others play MIGHT not affect proper BS ...
    ... but apparently, according to sims done by Norm Wattenberger, how others play does impact your results --
    From: Effect of a Poor Blackjack Player
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjarg View Post
    Villiam, your post is just too long to read.
    There are very few people from whom I would read a post that long, and you are not one of them.
    Let me just give you two examples of ways you could make serious money in blackjack flat betting and playing basic strategy:
    1) Loss rebates team play.
    2) Playing promotions that make games have an off the top advantage.
    Solo APs and teams have made and continue to make millions with these two only (there are more).
    So the answer to Katz question is YES.
    Well there you are shifting the rules around! I did not believe that we were talking about outside promos. Of course these tactics will pay off.

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