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Thread: How I Won 14 Grand

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    Default How I Won 14 Grand

    Poster 'Smak' at BJTF claims to have won $14,000 using this system...

    ... first off I never bust, so I stand on 12 or higher. and I bet 5 5 5 30 100 300 500 in that order while I am losing, as soon as I win a hand I start that betting order over. I bet the min until I have found I lost 3 times in a row and then ramp up my bets until I win. this is not the martingale strategy because I generally win much more on a win than just my initial bet, and even though I start with flat bets its not a flat betting strategy. here is what I win on each hand, depending on when I do win. 5 0 -5 15 55 155 55.

    I only lose if I win the 3rd bet or if I lose the 7th hand. but there is one option to take if you do lose the 7th hand and have the money, you can bet 2 hands of 500 and try to win your stake back plus 55 dollars. now I am considering changing this strategy slightly, if I win the first bet I may just let it ride for one more bet. so if I win 5 dollars then bet 10 dollars. and if I win the 10 dollars then drop back to my initial 5 dollar bet. in this way when I do get a string of wins I will get a little more money.
    Last edited by zengrifter; October 1st, 2016 at 11:06 AM. Reason: format

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    Default 14

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Somebody over there claims to have won $14,000 using this system...

    first off I never bust, so I stand on 12 or higher. and I bet 5 5 5 30 100 300 500 in that order while I am losing, as soon as I win a hand I start that betting order over. I bet the min until I have found I lost 3 times in a row and then ramp up my bets until I win. this is not the martingale strategy because I generally win much more on a win than just my initial bet, and even though I start with flat bets its not a flat betting strategy. here is what I win on each hand, depending on when I do win. 5 0 -5 15 55 155 55.

    I only lose if I win the 3rd bet or if I lose the 7th hand. but there is one option to take if you do lose the 7th hand and have the money, you can bet 2 hands of 500 and try to win your stake back plus 55 dollars. now I am considering changing this strategy slightly, if I win the first bet I may just let it ride for one more bet. so if I win 5 dollars then bet 10 dollars. and if I win the 10 dollars then drop back to my initial 5 dollar bet. in this way when I do get a string of wins I will get a little more money.
    I have seen fools get on a run and win $20,000, one time event means nothing, and his system is a joke.

    CC-HC-STing, or do not play.

    CP
    "Midwest Masters Of Advantage", "Strength and Honor."

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    It's funny you mention that CP.

    After even more substantial bad runs I am done with CCing. It doesn't seem very worthwhile on it's own accord. I've lost like 6 session bankrolls in a row. I can only be glad I didn't have a bigger ramp...

    I suppose if I was a total sicko I could handle this type of swing, even feel like it's normal. KJ can do this, others can't. I remember reading LoneWolf's posts at BJTF and just shaking my head...
    Last edited by Villiam; September 30th, 2016 at 12:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post

    After even more substantial bad runs I am done with CCing. I've lost like 6 session bankrolls in a row.

    I remember reading LoneWolf's posts at BJTF and just shaking my head...
    Wow, this is shocking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    It's funny you mention that CP.

    After even more substantial bad runs I am done with CCing. It doesn't seem very worthwhile on it's own accord. I've lost like 6 session bankrolls in a row. I can only be glad I didn't have a bigger ramp...

    I suppose if I was a total sicko I could handle this type of swing, even feel like it's normal. KJ can do this, others can't. I remember reading LoneWolf's posts at BJTF and just shaking my head...
    So your throwing in the towel eh Villiam? Have you ever played poker for money?

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    More than just a little bit... I was pretty rabid pre Black Friday online. But I never got properly rolled for live play at the right places (largely not casinos). Plus, I was a tourney specialist, not as into cash. But who knows what the future holds.

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    Default villiam

    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    It's funny you mention that CP.

    After even more substantial bad runs I am done with CCing. It doesn't seem very worthwhile on it's own accord. I've lost like 6 session bankrolls in a row. I can only be glad I didn't have a bigger ramp...

    I suppose if I was a total sicko I could handle this type of swing, even feel like it's normal. KJ can do this, others can't. I remember reading LoneWolf's posts at BJTF and just shaking my head...
    I am very sad to hear this my friend Over the years I have developed different tactics for various rules, decks etc.,,and it takes time and association with other AP's, if you have that opportunity, to learn all the deviations and even when not to play at all. You need to know how to turn the game against the house, thus CCing, HCing, and STing, and deviations. I can see that you are a very intelligent young man and I am sure you will be fine in any endeavor you set out to master, BJ maybe should not be one of them...?.

    Tell me of the BJ game you play. Rules decks etc.

    Friend,
    CP
    "Midwest Masters Of Advantage", "Strength and Honor."

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    It is really simply an issue of an insanely bad run... Just being drawn out by the dealer in amazing ways...

    I have done tons of simulation of my game and run bad as well, but I have also run really well. In real life it hasn't been nice at all, only a rare semblance of positive expectation.

    I ran into true counts better than 7 multiple decks the last time but didn't do anything but lose.

    I will PM you details and ask about networking potentials later, but I've done enough work to know my edges. That said, I believe there's always room for training learning and development, I just won't be playing with my own money again anytime soon, only thing making this seem not all that bad would be if I was suddenly making big bucks--then the amount I've lost wouldn't mean much, neither would my Wong out strategy matter anymore, nor would my ramp be as small...

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Villiam View Post
    It is really simply an issue of an insanely bad run... Just being drawn out by the dealer in amazing ways...
    Ed Thorp charcterized BJCC as ...
    "moderately heavy losing streaks followed by winning streaks of dazzling brilliance."
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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    Over there, the Oracles had a predictable response to the guy with his progressions system that won 14grand. The card counting cult is unanimous in its verdict that progression systems cannot win... the casino must get you in the end. End of card counters' edict and ... forget it; progressions are a sin and anyone who says otherwise is an idiot bound to lose, eventually.

    Of course, this is mostly true for anyone attempting Martingdale and other forms of progression betting. But this AP-accepted truth does not stop many from experimenting with progressions and the like.

    Reminds me of 'Fred' who had the temerity to post on Ken Smith's site that he had never lost in 20 years of Blackjack betting with his progressions system. Howls of outrage and insults forced Fred away, as everyone knows progressions may work... for a while, but disaster is certain, in the end.

    Fred was disillusioned with the response and I had a series of PMs with him. He'd been using his system since he cooked it up twenty years earlier. He was not a card counter, nor a shuffle tracker, nor even hole carding. He said after long tinkering, he'd found a way that worked for him. [He did not reveal all of his system to me, but the bits he did reveal were something similar - but not the same - as the 14grand guy.]

    Fred was very genuine, real and honest in his PMs... not a braggart nor a bullshit artist. His betting was not big and he was happy to make a goodly profit every time at the casino. He was aged 80.

    The last thing he said was the experts don't know everything. I found a way that wins at Blackjack.

    Now, although I agree that progressions cannot win in the long term, that remains true for probably 99.9% of us gamblers. But, Fred and a very very few others who make up the 0.1% may well have found a way.

    Who can definitely rule out that possibility?
    Last edited by Katz; October 1st, 2016 at 08:01 PM.

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    Default Progression

    I do believe that in playing a great 6d game, such as one found in the GNW, and employing perfect basic strategy for that great game, and using a positive progression, it is POSSIBLE to win more often than you lose, with out CC-STing or HC. But I am talking the finest 6d in the USA. Now if you just used skillz, CCing and STing, you can easily be in Nirvana.

    Friend,
    CP
    "Midwest Masters Of Advantage", "Strength and Honor."

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Now, although I agree that progressions cannot win in the long term, that remains true for probably 99.9% of us gamblers. But, Fred and a very very few others who make up the 0.1% may well have found a way.

    Who can definitely rule out that possibility?
    fred was just lucky.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
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    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    fred was just lucky.
    Yep, Fred got lucky for ... 20 years. Good. So you do not dismiss the possibility.

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    Default Zman

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    fred was just lucky.
    I played BJ last night with a young man, 24YO, and he was very much into side bets, that was his game, and the casino has a very good range of side bets. This young man fly's in from NY-NY just to play all the side bets, and he uses sequencing to do it. Interesting story, he had an international foreign student scholarship to MIT, graduated and lives in NY-NY as an engineer for Cisco. He is from Ramalla, a Palestinian Muslim, a real cool young guy, and when talking with him thought of you since I have heard that you are also very big into the side bets. The young man admitted to me he has a steaming problem when he starts losing big, his largest win so far has been $19,000 in one night,,,,,but he admits he is now losing, and yes his parents, still in Ramalla, do not know he is gambling, against the Muslim religion he confessed to me, we had a very nice talk about many things.

    Friend,
    CP
    "Midwest Masters Of Advantage", "Strength and Honor."

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    Quote Originally Posted by creeping panther View Post
    I played...last night with a young man, 24YO, and he was very...big. The young man admitted...me...his largest...so far,,,his parents...do not know...against the Muslim religion.
    lol

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