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Thread: Free Bet Blackjack.....the Variation

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    Default Free Bet Blackjack.....the Variation

    Does anyone know a count that can be used against this? I know that Basic Strategy for this is to take advantage of all the free bets. And the originator states that it's as vulnerable to counting as any normal blackjack game. But I have not been able to find a count that was suggested as to the actual game.

    Anyone here have any knowledge or who can lead me in the right direction? I know that there is a little info on Shackelford's Wiz of Odds site and Discount gambling. But all my research lists different initial HE (which I know can vary based upon the various rules) but they are also inconsistent on how to play/basic strategy for the game, too. With some listing you DON'T double 9 v. everything; others stating you DO double 9 since it's a free bet, etc. Some variance on soft doubling (free bets on splits) etc.

    I've also read Elliot's take on the game and he has not really analyzed it so far and seems doubtful from his post that he will any time soon. Though he also agrees vulnerable to counting.

    Help!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by MJOK View Post
    Does anyone know a count that can be used against this? I know that Basic Strategy for this is to take advantage of all the free bets. And the originator states that it's as vulnerable to counting as any normal blackjack game. But I have not been able to find a count that was suggested as to the actual game.

    Anyone here have any knowledge or who can lead me in the right direction? I know that there is a little info on Shackelford's Wiz of Odds site and Discount gambling. But all my research lists different initial HE (which I know can vary based upon the various rules) but they are also inconsistent on how to play/basic strategy for the game, too. With some listing you DON'T double 9 v. everything; others stating you DO double 9 since it's a free bet, etc. Some variance on soft doubling (free bets on splits) etc.

    I've also read Elliot's take on the game and he has not really analyzed it so far and seems doubtful from his post that he will any time soon. Though he also agrees vulnerable to counting.

    Help!!!!
    It's vulnerable to counting, but it's likely not worth playing. The only game worth playing seems to be one with exceptional rules. I don't know if there's any such game, although there probably is.

    There's not much data out there. But it seems fairly certain that the EOR of the 2, 5, and 6 are higher than in normal blackjack. Those cards are going to either cause additional 22s for the dealer (2,5) or an additional card that never produces a bust (6) and they have low split value. 3 will have a lower EOR. 4 shouldn't change much. 8 will produce valuable splits, but will cause less busts. Its EOR should go down and make it a player friendly card. 7 and 9 should shouldn't change much. 10s will be less helpful to the player than in blackjack, because they will also cause 22's for the dealer, and they are not eligible for free splits. Aces will definitely be more helpful to the player than in normal blackjack because they are always split and can never precipitate a hard 12.

    2-6: +1
    7: +1/2
    10: -1
    A: -1.5

    Seems like a reasonable guess that something like Hi-Lo would mirror the EORs. The caveat being the deuce is not being overvalued like it is in blackjack, so going to a level 2 like RPC you can't decrease the value of the deuce. It's also a reasonable guess that playing efficiency is more important in this game than in multi-deck blackjack because more decks is better and free bets lose on a push. So a generic Level 1 count may or may not be advisable.

    Nothing in this post has been verified or tested.
    Last edited by Boz; August 12th, 2016 at 05:25 AM.

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    hi lo would probably work for it but what are the indice plays?

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    i found a version recently which has ES10, i wonder how favourable this rule is?

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    Quote Originally Posted by HiLoSilver View Post
    i found a version recently which has ES10, i wonder how favourable this rule is?
    With correct FreeB BS should reduce HE to about .006 I would think?
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJOK View Post
    Does anyone know a count that can be used against this? I know that Basic Strategy for this is to take advantage of all the free bets. And the originator states that it's as vulnerable to counting as any normal blackjack game. But I have not been able to find a count that was suggested as to the actual game.
    Untill we see a proper sim, standard counting is ok, but must overcome the OTT HE of 1%.
    As for index changes ...

    1. Temper the hit 17 opps in +counts
    2. Use FB BS for splits.

    ... what else?

    Ps - What I would like to know is when to bet the Pot o Gold sucker bet.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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    With correct FreeB BS should reduce HE to about .006 I would think?
    Really that much? I heard that LS is much more valuable in freebet (.24) than in blackjack but wasn't sure whether or not ES10 would have the same impact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HiLoSilver View Post
    Really that much? I heard that LS is much more valuable in freebet (.24) than in blackjack but wasn't sure whether or not ES10 would have the same impact.
    Maybe you are correct, mine was just an educated guess?
    I am limited to my reading of Steven How's articles @ Discount Gambling, is that your primary source as well?
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    Quote Originally Posted by HiLoSilver View Post
    hi lo would probably work for it but what are the indice plays?
    Nobody knows the index plays because no one plays this game. You'd have to hire a programmer. Like I said, it's probably not worth playing. IMO, it'd be really stupid to just go count the game with hi-lo and assume you're beating it. Idiots are doing that with Spanish 21 right now. Although they are probably beating the game, inaccurate information is all over the place about that game because no one knows what the fuck they're talking about. Which causes some people to go out and count and WRONGLY assume they are beating it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Nobody knows the index plays because no one plays this game. You'd have to hire a programmer.
    I think that most of the (few) index adjustments would be intuitive, based on an understanding of the FB-BS. And there is a starting HE of 1% that must be overcome (about the same as SF21).
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    I think that most of the (few) index adjustments would be intuitive, based on an understanding of the FB-BS. And there is a starting HE of 1% that must be overcome (about the same as SF21).
    No, the house edge in SP21 is from 0.4-0.7, and most play the better versions. ES10 makes Free Bet slightly worse than a terrible SP21 game. There are plenty of things in blackjack that are counterintuitive; intuitive players are ploppies. Realistically, you could probably eyeball indices for any hard real money hand. Soft hands and free money hands, you'd need to figure out indices you probably never used before for regular blackjack. Then get a compromise index that falls between two blackjack plays to add to your free bet index strategy chart. And do that, one by one. Even then, it's only an educated guess. You also don't know how TC affects advantage. As the count goes up, the dealer is going to bust more 12s, and although you will get more high value 20s and blackjacks, you are going to get less free bets. It's safe to say the game doesn't increase in value faster than blackjack, and it won't become breakeven until +2.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    And there is a starting HE of 1% that must be overcome (about the same as SF21).
    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    No, the house edge in SP21 is from 0.4-0.7, and most play the better versions. ES10 makes Free Bet slightly worse than a terrible SP21 game.
    I didn't say "SP21" I said SF21.
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