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Thread: My method vs 'weak count'

  1. #1
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    Default My method vs 'weak count'

    The advices above are very good advice but I just want to make clear of what do you mean by a weak count because my definition of weak count and your definition of weak count is different. Your definition of weak might be Hi-lo but my definition of weak count is opp count or speed count. Please clarify.
    The way I presented everything count need not be addressed unless you want to. But since you asked to me a weak count is ace reckoned as it gives up a lot in PE. Ace compromise counts picks up about half the lose in PE. Level 1 counts are weak because they average too many dissimilar situation together in the same betting bin so despite high BC you aren't betting very accurately. Betting accuracy is more a measure of the SD and/or range of advantage for individual situations in each betting bin. If you choose what I call a weak count you need to be very cognizant of everything else on the list. You can tighten up results enough for most to be happy with the other things on the list but the accuracy of bets and plays has a lot to do with being able to bet more with the same advantage and having a lower n0 for each betting bin. When it comes to top bets you want as low a n0 as possible for that betting bin and you want to make the bet with as high a frequency as possible. The combination of these 2 determine how fast you approach n0. Your bet size determines the significance of the impact of the betting bin. Remember n0 is proportional to Var/(EV^2) or (SD^2)/(EV^2). You are improving both the numerator and the denominator in this equation but the power variable is EV because it is squared.

    Of course variance is SD squared so increasing betting accuracy (not BC) decreases SD which is squared in the numerator of n0. But anyway a strong count to me is either ace compromise or better yet ace neutral and a level 2 count. The 4 and 5 should be the highest tagged low cards in the count and not many more of the same tag value. You dilute the power of a level 2 counts each time you add more. 1 more tagged the same as the 4 or 5 is not that big a difference but 2 more is.


    Let's not get too involved in the nuts and bolts. The point is your choice of count has an effect on your ride to the long run. Long run stats are not going to be that different but you were asking about how to handle the bad swings. You can stack the deck in your favor by addressing as many of the issues in the list as you want so you can limit bad swings. You need not address your count if you don't want to. Getting quality hours rather than quantity hours will work wonders. You should have a nice cushion in your BR so bad runs won't cause drawdown when large living expenses and a negative run hit at the same time.

    If you have a weak cushion or no cushion then I would consider addressing a weak count. Weak is just a relative term. It is not judgmental or demeaning. For a personal application weak is also doing a count you can't handle so for each individual their current skill level also defines weak and strong. Strong is the intersection of what your skills can handle and what defines a strong count in general. Strong counts may be weak for those that have yet to develop the skills to perform them flawlessly. So the term strong has a different meaning to different individuals at different points in skill level. If you use other AP techniques like ST effectively that changes the definition of strong as well as certain counts may make these techniques impossible. Just make sure you are proficient at ST before using it. You don't want to be betting big into nothing.

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    Shut up, Lady Tthree. Black-chipping on sims doesn't count. We know you're a red-chipper.

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    Mostrar alguna clase, amigo, be respectful when a lady speaks from knowledge.
    Triple Reversed Cowpoke Final Elephant Ringer! Can anyone say, "You're a ding-dong!"

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    Name:  T3.jpg
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    AP: Advanced Ploppy.

    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!

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    My count yields $500-$1000 per hour.

    Furthermore
    , my BR is about 4 times what it needs to be to play with a 0% RoR for the stakes I play. I try to keep my BR steady or climbing when BR withdrawals for paying living expenses are done. But if I don't there is plenty of cushion to draw off in the 3 times excess BR.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Tthree View Post
    My count yields $500-$1000 per hour.

    Furthermore
    , my BR is about 4 times what it needs to be to play with a 0% RoR for the stakes I play. I try to keep my BR steady or climbing when BR withdrawals for paying living expenses are done. But if I don't there is plenty of cushion to draw off in the 3 times excess BR.
    Quiz - How big must Lady Tthree's BR be?
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    I coined the term the ride to the long run. So you could have a separate term for how the term variance is misused. I view variance as a long term stat. What people complain about is the short term which is not well reflected by the stat variance. The ride to the long run for your BR can be anything from the craziest of roller coaster rides to a kiddy ride. Variance won't be much different but what you experience on the way will be.

    Some people affect their win rate by trying hard not ton post a losing session. They post lots of small wins and some really big losses. While others prefer to post small losses over small wins for longevity sake. Obviously one will win a much higher percentage of sessions than the other but usually the other will have won more over time. One reason for this is the high winning percentage player is almost certainly not leaving the table at optimal times in order to post more winning sessions.


    Lots of AP's make a lot of money annually. What a lot is to each varies. To some it is a million to others it is $20K. If you play often enough in a disciplined fashion for meaningful stakes you should win a huge amount by the end of the year. A bad year should be a big win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Tthree View Post
    I coined the term the ride to the long run. So you could have a separate term for how the term variance is misused. I view variance as a long term stat. What people complain about is the short term which is not well reflected by the stat variance. The ride to the long run for your BR can be anything from the craziest of roller coaster rides to a kiddy ride. Variance won't be much different but what you experience on the way will be.

    Some people affect their win rate by trying hard not ton post a losing session. They post lots of small wins and some really big losses. While others prefer to post small losses over small wins for longevity sake. Obviously one will win a much higher percentage of sessions than the other but usually the other will have won more over time. One reason for this is the high winning percentage player is almost certainly not leaving the table at optimal times in order to post more winning sessions.


    Lots of AP's make a lot of money annually. What a lot is to each varies. To some it is a million to others it is $20K. If you play often enough in a disciplined fashion for meaningful stakes you should win a huge amount by the end of the year. A bad year should be a big win.



    For $100, I'll take WHAT THE FUCK DID THREE SAY thanks Alex

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Quiz - How big must Lady Tthree's BR be?
    Four times zero is, of course, bigger than three times zero.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Tthree View Post
    I coined the term
    Is he fucking serious? There's a former school bully out there that I need to find and beat up for not beating up T3 enough as a kid.

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    This forum is just so much more FUN than anywhere else!! That was N0rm's fourth, invisible, rule. No fun.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Tthree View Post
    I view variance as a long term stat. What people complain about is the short term which is not well reflected by the stat variance.
    So variance is more about the long-run, m'Lady?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    So variance is more about the long-run, m'Lady?
    Insane

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    So variance is more about the long-run, m'Lady?
    I thought the Law of Large Numbers came in to play in the long-run. Does anyone else get the feeling that the Duchess has no idea what she's talking about?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Tthree View Post
    I coined the term the ride to the long run. So you could have a separate term for how the term variance is misused. I view variance as a long term stat. What people complain about is the short term which is not well reflected by the stat variance. The ride to the long run for your BR can be anything from the craziest of roller coaster rides to a kiddy ride. Variance won't be much different but what you experience on the way will be.

    Some people affect their win rate by trying hard not ton post a losing session. They post lots of small wins and some really big losses. While others prefer to post small losses over small wins for longevity sake. Obviously one will win a much higher percentage of sessions than the other but usually the other will have won more over time. One reason for this is the high winning percentage player is almost certainly not leaving the table at optimal times in order to post more winning sessions.


    Lots of AP's make a lot of money annually. What a lot is to each varies. To some it is a million to others it is $20K. If you play often enough in a disciplined fashion for meaningful stakes you should win a huge amount by the end of the year. A bad year should be a big win.
    The more you talk the less impressive you are!
    AP: Advanced Ploppy.

    After over 10000 BS bragging posts, it turns out that T3 doesn't even play BJ! What a damn joke, LOL!

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