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Thread: Probability Theory Live - DOA

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    Default Probability Theory. Live! Saliu

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    Dogma schmogma

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    Dogma schmogma

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    This is supposed to be the AP forum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    This is supposed to be the AP forum.
    You mean you read it? Ion will be pleased.
    Dogma schmogma

  5. #5

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    I mean that unless you read it, and can cite a specific item of usefulness for applied scientific gambling, I will need to start a crackpot-voodoo-gambler-fallacy forum for stuff like this.

    OTOH: I like what he says about past events DO influence future results, even if it does fly in the face of modern textbook statistical logic and probability theory. But still, can you use this stuff at tables?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
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    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    I mean that unless you read it, and can cite a specific item of usefulness for applied scientific gambling, I will need to start a crackpot-voodoo-gambler-fallacy forum for stuff like this.

    OTOH: I like what he says about past events DO influence future results, even if it does fly in the face of modern textbook statistical logic and probability theory. But still, can you use this stuff at tables?
    Parpaluck has joined us, and it would be cool if he started a thread about this radical theory of probability of his!
    Dr. Saliu, please!

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katweezel View Post
    Use THIS link: http://web.archive.org/web/201308210...ityTheory.html

    I like these ...

    Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future. To explain this he uses an example of two men playing a best-of-three backgammon series. After the first match, the player in the lead has a 75% chance of winning the series, while the player who lost the first game has only a 25% chance of winning. He attributes this concept to Blaise Pascal, who is considered the father of probability theory.
    -----
    The author .... makes some truly remarkable ..... statements. At one point he writes, “I consider myself the best blackjack player ever.” In another instance he states, “if all gamblers would be like me, following probability theory instead of guts, then there would be no casinos.”

    Especially this one, I have trouble disagreeing with despite Bayes Theorem -

    Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future.


    Last edited by zengrifter; April 19th, 2014 at 05:48 PM.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post

    Use THIS link: http://web.archive.org/web/201308210...ityTheory.html

    I like these ...

    Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future. To explain this he uses an example of two men playing a best-of-three backgammon series. After the first match, the player in the lead has a 75% chance of winning the series, while the player who lost the first game has only a 25% chance of winning. He attributes this concept to Blaise Pascal, who is considered the father of probability theory.
    -----
    The author .... makes some truly remarkable ..... statements. At one point he writes, “I consider myself the best blackjack player ever.” In another instance he states, “if all gamblers would be like me, following probability theory instead of guts, then there would be no casinos.”

    Especially this one, I have trouble disagreeing with despite Bayes Theorem -

    Of particular interest is his assertion that the past has a significant effect on the present and future.


    The only thing he has not been able to show me to my satisfaction is why he has not yet been able to break the banks of all the casinos in Las Vegas. Is he stalling?
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

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  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    The only thing he has not been able to show me to my satisfaction is why he has not yet been able to break the banks of all the casinos in Las Vegas. Is he stalling?
    No need for hyperbole, Monsignor Askobalan. We just need to understand it.
    Regardless, he would still be universally banned before any real-damage could occur.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    No need for hyperbole, Monsignor Askobalan. We just need to understand it.
    Regardless, he would still be universally banned before any real-damage could occur.
    What hyperbole? I am $3,489,594.92 ahead after starting with just $25, and there's no end in sight, except that the 'suits' keep congregating and talking about me as they whisper to each other. It's starting to unnerve me. I feel like an escaped convict being cornered, you know, like cool hand Luke.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  11. #11
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    PS-- Besides the $25.00 bankroll I started with, I had $4.92 in my pocket.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

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    No need for sarcasm. Maybe he's on to something and we should proceed with an open mind and abandon our cult brainwashing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    No need for sarcasm. Maybe he's on to something and we should proceed with an open mind and abandon our cult brainwashing.
    And I was going to share my new found wealth with you. See what you get now, wenblister!
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  14. #14
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    Anyway, I the streak ended and I didn't quit like the instructions say. I lost it all, plus I tipped the waitress $4.92.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    No need for sarcasm. Maybe he's on to something and we should proceed with an open mind and abandon our cult brainwashing.
    Cult brainwashing? WTF? I bet you wouldn't have the ballz to say that on a Blackjack website I could name.

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