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Thread: Probability Theory Live - DOA

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Cult brainwashing? WTF? I bet you wouldn't have the ballz to say that on a Blackjack website I could name.
    Is he saying I have a clean mind? Why, thank you, penlifter. I thought you were chiding moi.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    Is he saying I have a clean mind? Why, thank you, penlifter. I thought you were chiding moi.
    I found this photo evidence deep in the ZZ Aslan Anals... It shows Fr Aslan comforting a failed - and broke - blackjack card counter on a bench not far from The Venetian casino.

    Name:  azburp.jpg
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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    I found this photo evidence deep in the ZZ Aslan Anals... It shows Fr Aslan comforting a failed - and broke - blackjack card counter on a bench not far from The Venetian casino.

    Attachment 27578
    That's me sure enough, but what I was saying was, "Brother, I have heard you have good shoes. Please, Gus, can I buy them for a fin?"
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  4. #19
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    i started reading Probability Theory. Live! and got stuck, errhh ehmm probably where i usually get stuck reading any book on probability. the coin flip, uhmm trivial i guess but it bugs me and then i get stuck.

    it’s supposed to be a independent thing, no? i mean the probability of heads coming up is 0.5 every time you flip the coin, each flip is independent of any other. well ok, theoretically i guess that’s true, but try and actually create the conditions necessary to fit the theory. i don’t believe it can be done. classically each trial is supposed to be independent, but is it really?, i doubt that.

    to be fair in conducting trials one should conduct the trial exactly the same way every trial, really? no, cause if one did that the same result would occur every time. so alright then, one should conduct the trials the same way every trial but introduce an element of randomness into the trial, some how, some way, but the same way. impossible, no?

    so if not impossible how do we do that?, introduce an element of randomness into each trial? me thinks that’s where we fail, or at least lack ability. instead we rely upon the belief that, ahh, ok, there’s an infinite potential of ways that coin can be flipped, and as flipping time goes on that potential will be tapped into so as neither heads or tails will be favored and that over trials and trials the particular random event that favors one over the other will be evened out by other random events that favor the other over the one, sorta thing.

    point being, the whole shebang, the probability of the coin flip and the independence of the event is dependent upon randomness. one could skew the results by tinkering with the randomness. if one flipped the coin with virtually the same force to the same height and started the coin with either the heads up or tails up for a predominate number of trials with respect to the total number of trials where the remaining trials were varied one would find that a given face of the coin would come up more often than the other.

    tinkering with the randomness is introducing known information regarding the process that doesn’t exist if the process is purely random. in the same way, me thinks the typical practice of flipping coins no where near approaches randomness, hence the randomness is naturally tinkered with, lol. i mean come on what are we gonna do?, vary the height we flip the coin? , flip the coin a foot up, then two feet in the air,….., then high as the empire state building?, or flip it the same height but vary the force to affect the number of spins?, what we gonna do approach the force of an atomic explosion? maybe vary the landing surface of the coin with a surface similar to a craps table siding? hmm i doubt that would even work, lol. i dunno, something a’int kosher in the real world compared to the theory, it seems.

    so are all of those concerns that make me get stuck just trivial and maybe things as they are, are good enough to make the probability 0.5 anyway. i dunno. are such concerns the source of the crazy variance one experiences?

    or does all that mean axioparapluck is right?, i dunno cause i get stuck, can’t get past reading where i get stuck, lol, besides his site is down anyway.
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

  5. #20
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    Default Aslan's Gambit

    I have worked tirelessly day and night to develop a new gambit in Blackjack that is sure to revolutionize the game. One has only to open his mind to innovative out-of-the-box thinking in order to explore brand new horizons. Here is how Aslan's Gambit works. You need three uneducated players at the table plus yourself at third base. You confederates always bet minimum bet. No matter what your confederates get, they must draw until they bust their hands. IF they get dealt two tens, they must split them and continue drawing until they bust their hands. What if they are dealt 19? They must draw to try to get a two, stating, "I know the dealer has twenty," or "I know the dealer will draw to a 21; he always does." The idea is to have three busted hands prior to your hand on which you have bet the house maximum. The beauty of this is that you can bet this system right from the deal dismissing any fear on the part of the house that you are card counting. How does it work? Easy! We know from Ion Saliu's formula http://web.archive.org/web/201309131...kjackodds.html that the odds of four busted hands in the same round is a mere 3.1%, meaning that you have better than a 97% chance of not busting no matter what you do! So listen carefully. Since there is a strong probability that you will not bust, neither will the dealer probably bust. What you are hoping for is that the dealer has a 7, 8, 9 or 10 upcard, so that the odds are he has a ten or ace underneath, meaning that he has a pat hand and will not draw. That's exactly what you want. All you have to do is draw until you have a twenty (possible push) or 21, a sure winner unless the dealer is able to draw one himself, which itself is improbable. The only way the dealer can beat you in a very minute number of instances is if he receives a blackjack on the deal, and how often does that happen? You have the proverbial "nuts" with this ironclad system. Now go forth and play it for all it's worth! And may the blackjack gods shine upon thee!
    Last edited by aslan; April 21st, 2014 at 11:32 AM.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    I have worked tirelessly day and night to develop a new gambit in Blackjack that is sure to revolutionize the game. One has only to open his mind to innovative out-of-the-box thinking in order to explore brand new horizons. Here is how Aslan's Gambit works. You need three uneducated players at the table plus yourself at third base. You confederates always bet minimum bet. No matter what your confederates get, they must draw until they bust their hands. IF they get dealt two tens, they must split them and continue drawing until they bust their hands. What if they are dealt 19? They must draw to try to get a two, stating, "I know the dealer has twenty," or "I know the dealer will draw to a 21; he always does." The idea is to have three busted hands prior to your hand on which you have bet the house maximum. The beauty of this is that you can bet this system right from the deal dismissing any fear on the part of the house that you are card counting. How does it work? Easy! We know from Ion Saliu's formula http://web.archive.org/web/201309131...kjackodds.html that the odds of four busted hands in the same round is a mere 3.1%, meaning that you have better than a 97% chance of not busting no matter what you do! So listen carefully. Since there is a strong probability that you will not bust, neither will the dealer probably bust. What you are hoping for is that the dealer has a 7, 8, 9 or 10 upcard, so that the odds are he has a ten or ace underneath, meaning that he has a pat hand and will not draw. That's exactly what you want. All you have to do is draw until you have a twenty (possible push) or 21, a sure winner unless the dealer is able to draw one himself, which itself is improbable. The only way the dealer can beat you in a very minute number of instances is if he receives a blackjack on the deal, and how often does that happen? You have the proverbial "nuts" with this ironclad system. Now go forth and play it for all it's worth! And may the blackjack gods shine upon thee!
    brilliantaxiomatic, i want to try that so bad, many, many trials but i need a backer, yah know put up a stake, help me out.
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
    brilliantaxiomatic, i want to try that so bad, many, many trials but i need a backer, yah know put up a stake, help me out.
    I suggest you simulate it first.
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  8. #23

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
    can’t get past reading where i get stuck, lol, besides his site is down anyway.
    Here, full access to Saliu.com. Note: menu tabs are in the footer -
    http://web.archive.org/web/201402080...p://saliu.com/
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Here, full access to Saliu.com. Note: menu tabs are in the footer -
    http://web.archive.org/web/201402080...p://saliu.com/
    Well then, this is another revelation. Saliu.com might be temporarily down but his archives are not? I suppose this means his archives were not ceased and desisted? which kinda deflates what was intended by the complainer...

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Well then, this is another revelation. Saliu.com might be temporarily down but his archives are not? I suppose this means his archives were not ceased and desisted? which kinda deflates what was intended by the complainer...
    It's the Wayback Web Timemachine.

    Here is Norm's QFIT site from Sept 1999 -
    http://web.archive.org/web/199902080.../www.qfit.com/

    Here's Arnold's site, May 1999 -
    http://web.archive.org/web/199905072...p://rge21.com/
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    It's the Wayback Web Timemachine.

    Here is Norm's QFIT site from Sept 1999 -
    http://web.archive.org/web/199902080.../www.qfit.com/

    Here's Arnold's site, May 1999 -
    http://web.archive.org/web/199905072...p://rge21.com/
    It's a miracle!
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    It's a miracle!
    OMG! Fr Aslan even has Vatican emoticons. Please, dear lord Jesus, Mary, God, anyone up there!... puleeeeeze, make him stop... I beseech and bebeg youse...

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    It's a miracle!
    meh, it's from onna them there multi-verse thinga majobies.
    but that's still a miracle.
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    OMG! Fr Aslan even has Vatican emoticons. Please, dear lord Jesus, Mary, God, anyone up there!... puleeeeeze, make him stop... I beseech and bebeg youse...
    Relax, Katman, I have not yet figured how to upload holy water to the forum... but I'm working on it. Let me know if your computer screen gets wet...
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  15. #30

    Default Thank you

    Axiomatic Colleagues of Mine:

    How focused I am! I was involved only in that N0rm-dedicated forum. It was this morning, April 25, 2014 that I saw this thread started by my axio mate Kwitser in 2013!

    My comment is:

    Thank you all for reading my book.

    Google Books offers free reading of large passages. They sell my entire eBook for $3.03. I only get 15% in royalties.

    I know and accept it all, not only the positives. The N0rms of the world hate my book because it has real mathematical formulae. The Askobolans of the world hate my book because it proves mathematically (undeniably, that is) that God represents absolute absurdity. But the Askobolan reason is the reason why the Kwitsers of the world appreciate my book.

    I am happy for all the piracy of my eBook in university campuses around the world! My main goal was not money — it was the book.

    Ion Saliu,
    Probably Live At-Large

    “A good man is an axiomatic man; an axiomatic man is a happy man. Be axiomatic!”

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