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Thread: Gambling Science = Limited-Step Martingale Progressions Applied to STREAKS

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    Default Gambling Science = Limited-Step Martingale Progressions Applied to STREAKS



    The most famous gambling systems are for the game of blackjack, namely
    card counting systems. I have written quite a bit on the fallacy of card-counting systems.

    Mathematically, card counting is worthless for all intents and purposes. The permutations are staggering. Besides, there is more than one player at the table. What makes you believe you are the chosen one to benefit from a so-called positive count?

    Also, the counts come in streaks. At the beginning of the round, the count might be very positive. When the second cards are dealt, however, the count goes very negative!

    MORE: http://saliu.com/occult-science-gamb...GamblingSystem
    Last edited by Katz; June 25th, 2016 at 08:38 PM.

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    Ion Saliu Ten-Only Counting and the Insurance Bet

    Now, keeping track of the Tens-only serves a good purpose as regards INSURANCE BETTING.

    • In the ‘Counting System In-Reverse’: The larger the amount of Tens OUT (REMOVED), the higher degree of certainty DC to get a DOUBLE-DOWN hand in the next round.
    • Inversely, for the ‘Insurance Bet’: The larger the amount of Tens LEFT (REMAINING) in THIS round, the higher degree of certainty to win the ‘Insurance Bet’.
    • We consider the cutoff value to be ONE THIRD of Tens removed from the deck. There are 2 cards per hand for each player and the dealer. Total cards dealt: 16.
    • For example, if there are 7 players plus the dealer, the cutoff value is 16/3 = 5 Tens OUT in the first two cards.
    • A ‘positive’ (favorable!) count is everything UNDER the cutoff value. In the example above, if the ‘10-count’ is (5 – 2), it is recommended to take insurance.
    • A ‘10-count’ figure of 5 or above: Do not take insurance (house advantage is 8% on average).

    Read more detailed instructions:

    http://forums.saliu.com/blackjack-natural-odds...
    (Formulas to calculate all blackjack odds, probabilities of blackjack natural 21, insurance, double down hands, pairs to split, house edge, favorable bets.)

    http://forums.saliu.com/card-counting-blackjack.html...
    (Mathematics of Reversed Card-Counting Blackjack Strategy, Systems)

    If you haven’t grasped blackjack basic strategy (BBS) yet, this free resource is guaranteed to teach you BBC in a week:

    http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/399.html
    (Learn the best blackjack basic strategy with color-coded charts for all black jack decisions: Double down, split pairs, hit or draw, stand, stay.)

    Ion Saliu,
    Blackjackologist At-Large


    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1744198642487267&id=10000 6914443030&comment_id=1744605742446557&notif_t=fee d_c





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    Ion Saliu Meanwhile, let’s never lose sight of the ‘Real McCoy’. What they call ‘Blackjack Card-Counting’ is a CULT. And all cults inevitably lead to AFFLICTION. They try to comfort the afflicted but end up afflicting the comfortable.

    • And here is the capital sin of blackjack card counting. A positive count is always considered a winning situation. The counter must increase his bet, significantly at times. But because of the staggering amount of card sequences, plus number of players, real-life winning comes to fruition for one player less than 50% of the cases; the worst situation occurs with 7 players at the same blackjack table.

    • The followers of the counting-cards cult do have religiosity attached to their behavior. A card-counter blindly believes he is a "chosen one". That is, some god of blackjack will always make the card-counter a winner.

    • The card-counter always disregards the existence of other players at the same table and the dealer. It's only him who wins every positive-count round — no matter how many players and the dealer's position at the table! The blackjack gods are always on card-counters' side! I was myself a card counter, but I never, ever, expected some cosmic hallucinations win the plus-count blackjack hands for me.

    • It is strongly evident to every coolheaded person, especially to the axiomatics, that in the vast majority of plus-count situations, a majority of the blackjack players at the same table lose their bets. Shouldn't all players win? After all, the card-counting dogma preaches bigger bets in all positive-counts as they are automatically winning situations by "divine will"!

    • The card counter finds out sooner rather than later that he lost a vast majority of his bets in plus-count situations. It is no surprise that all card counters lose large amounts of money in shorter periods of time (compared to basic strategy blackjack players). That's called mathematics. If you bet bigger in certain situations, you must be sure you win — not lose — a majority of such cases.

    • Contrary to the legend, the card-counters in blackjack are big losers, not big winners. In fact, most of them lose so badly that they have no choice but end their gambling activities. The afflicted resort to alcohol or drugs, or both, and hope to find solace by mouth-foaming in forums of the same feather. That's the inevitable reality, because the card-counters virulently ignore mathematics; instead, they trust cosmic hallucinations sui generis.

    http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html#mathematics

    Ion Saliu,
    Blackjackologist At-Large

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    Mathematical Foundation of Favorable Insurance in Blackjack

    INSURANCE can be a favorable bet for all blackjack players depending on the number of Ten-value cards seen on the table. For example:
    7 Players:
    • Take insurance if 3 or fewer Tens came out in the running round.

    6 Players:
    • Take insurance if 2 or fewer Tens came out in the running round.

    5 Players:
    • Take insurance if 2 or fewer Tens came out in the running round.

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...reate&notif_id

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