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Thread: Parpapluck Proves the BJ HA is 7.5%

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    Default Parpapluck Proves the BJ HA is 7.5%

    ...Now, the house edge goes between something like .3355 * .2248 = 8.3% and something like .3355 * .1978 = 6.6%. It averages out to 7.5%. It is a far cry from the intentionally false house advantage (HA) of 1%, or even .5%! The overwhelming majority of blackjack players lose their bankrolls quickly, because this is NOT a 50-50 game or so much close to that margin! And always be mindful that blackjack is strongly sequential: The Dealer always plays the last hand. Otherwise, the casinos would go bankrupt!
    • All figures above regarding the bust odds figures apply only to one full 52-card deck. Programming BJ software for more decks is severely limited by today's computers I have access to. For one, the size limit of an object (e.g. file) is limited to 2 GB by the Windows operating system. The speed of today's computers will also make virtually impossible to generate all possible blackjack hands in lexicographic order for multiple decks. John Scarne tried to figure out the Dealer's bust odds by just using 13 blackjack cards from 2 to Ace — one suit only!...
    More: http://saliu.com/blackjackodds.html

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    7.5%


    Last edited by Katz; March 17th, 2015 at 06:55 PM.

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    Do you think he is right Katz?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    Do you think he is right Katz?
    Yep. Here is a typical example that 'proves' Blackjack has the best HA:

    "Blackjack, the most popular of all table games, offers the skilled player some of the best odds in the casino. The house advantage varies slightly depending on the rules and number of decks, but a player using basic strategy faces little or no disadvantage in a single-deck game and only a 0.5% house edge in the common six-deck game. Despite these numbers, the average player ends up giving the casino a 2% edge due to mistakes and deviations from basic strategy.

    Complete basic strategy tables can be found in many books and many casino-hotel gift shops sell color-coded credit card size versions. Rule variations favorable to the player include fewer decks, dealer stands on soft seventeen (worth 0.2%), doubling after splitting (0.14%), late surrender (worth 0.06%), and early surrender (uncommon, but worth 0.24%). If the dealer hits soft seventeen it will cost you, as will any restrictions on when you can double down."

    This type of promotion fails to take into account the fact that the dealer plays last. As Saliu.com points out, that alone is a massive Edge. I believe Blackjack to be the most profitable-for-casinos game, after slots (and forgetting about whales playing baccarat). If this is true, there lies the proof... the House Edge at BJ provides the bulk of their profits. If the HE is 0.5% as is so often claimed by card counters, then surely casino profits from BJ would reflect that, rather than being their greatest table game earner. The reason is obvious. The HE is far more than 0.5% and far more than 1%.

    Last edited by Katz; March 18th, 2015 at 05:02 AM.

  5. #5

    Default Parpa is wrong

    I would say that Parpaluck is wrong. I don't believe that the house edge could ever be a fixed percentage and that it would flutuate. To find out if blackjack is the most profitable game we would have to look at earnings reports, the proof would be right there. For one thing I think we could both agree on is that the house edge varies based on the rules of the game. Playing hands incorrectly and over betting are two of the biggest reason why I think most people are losers at the game of Blackjack.
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; March 18th, 2015 at 03:40 AM.

  6. #6

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    The average player probably incurs a HE of 4%
    The basic strategy player incurs a HE of under (typically) 0.65% depending on rules.

    When Katz plays the HE is a little under 10%

    As we have said before, Saliu shows a curious combination of ignorance AND willful deceit when he writes about HE.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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    Default Team Jeebus

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    When Katz plays the HE is a little under 10%
    Except in the rare occasions when Mr. Katz plays on Jeebus's team as mentioned here: http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/...865#post223865

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    Except in the rare occasions when Mr. Katz plays on Jeebus's team as mentioned here: http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/...865#post223865
    The good Spanish21 games offer a HA of about 0.35 but your bs has to be accurate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    Except in the rare occasions when Mr. Katz plays on Jeebus's team as mentioned here: http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/...865#post223865
    LOL. I guess Katz's prayers got answered.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    The good Spanish21 games offer a HA of about 0.35 but your bs has to be accurate.
    What would you regard as being a good Spanish 21 game? How often do you play the game in the casino Sven?
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; March 19th, 2015 at 12:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    LOL. I guess Katz's prayers got answered.
    They didn't. I was only kiddin. I can now reveal the truth. Three well-known Christian APs [Aslan, Moo, T3] have never said praying helped one iota to win at Blackjack or anything else. They are all liars, as at the same time, they claim to be devout Christians, and Jeebus hisself is alleged to have promised that whatever you pray for in his name with faith, it must come to pass. Of course, he was speaking bullshit of the highest order... but they believe all that gibberish. Jeebus lied, the Pope is a liar, Mary lied, and Yahweh is the biggest liar of them all. I can prove this...

    WHERE'S MY FUCKIN CADILLAC? WHERE'S MY FUCKIN MASERATI, WHERE'S MY FUCKIN HARLEY? ... damn liars the lot of em...

    While I'm at it, the Gritfer has often claimed there are tests showing that prayer works. But to date, he has never produced even one believable report proving prayer works. If it does work, I'm sure Griff could regale us with numerous examples of his own prayers to G*D being answered. Am I right z?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    The average player probably incurs a HE of 4%
    The basic strategy player incurs a HE of under (typically) 0.65% depending on rules.

    When Katz plays the HE is a little under 10%

    As we have said before, Saliu shows a curious combination of ignorance AND willful deceit when he writes about HE.
    Hands up those who read and understand Ion's math on this HE topic but without understanding it so to speak... (My hand is up)

    In the days when you, Grifter were persona grata at N0rman Watt a Burger's site, I confided privately to you aspects of my voodoo Blackjack system that I designed to go after the large bets. You pissed me off by pronouncing what little you knew about it as "folly." After I foolishly lost several more thousands, I realized you were correct. Did I thank you for that? You saved me from a Black Hole of ginormous proportions. Not to be deterred, I soldiered on and rewrote the script, seriously tweaked it and put the whole thing through a meat grinder four times. Then piece by piece, I put it back together with many new parts. But first an aside...

    Way back on Ken's site, a senior called 'Fred' got howled off the forum for having the gall to suggest he had a progressions betting system that had seen him never have a losing BJ session in 20 years. All of the brains trust cried bullshit Fred, piss of with your crap, and he left. But I stayed in touch with him for a while and he convinced me he was telling the truth. I believe such a thing to be possible, despite all the naysayers, the experts, the wannabe experts, and the know-it-alls like T3 that often frequent BJ boards.

    Anyway, I have nothing to do with progressions betting. What I do have is something to do with what I consider to be a) the high figure of 28.20% for dealer busts average b) deliberate departure from basic strategy when required c) realizing that the deadly scourge of variance can at times, be reversed so that it works against the dealer d) Some shoes are far more likely to be profitable for me than others; similarly, some rounds are far more likely to be profitable than others. e) The dealer can be made to bust more than is realized.
    Last edited by Katz; March 19th, 2015 at 12:19 AM.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post

    While I'm at it, the Gritfer has often claimed there are tests showing that prayer works. But to date, he has never produced even one believable report proving prayer works. If it does work, I'm sure Griff could regale us with numerous examples of his own prayers to G*D being answered. Am I right z?
    Maybe it has more to do with belief and faith, in what a person is doing is right rather than if it works.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    Correct! European No-Hole-Card (ENHC) Blackjack is one example. She discusses other disadvantages in her book.
    So if Spanish 21 was the more profitable game compared to blackjack where Walker lives. How would her statement hold up here in U.S. casinos? In certain situations is Spanish 21 more beatable than blackjack here in the states? I guess you one would have to analyze the games here in the states.

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    While I'm at it, the Gritfer has often claimed there are tests showing that prayer works. But to date, he has never produced even one believable report proving prayer works. If it does work, I'm sure Griff could regale us with numerous examples of his own prayers to G*D being answered. Am I right z?
    I'm a practicing Advaita non-dualist DA-ist...
    ... so I answer my own prayers - so help me, ME.

    NOT TWO, Bro Katz!
    Last edited by zengrifter; March 22nd, 2015 at 11:34 PM.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

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