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Thread: The Scobe Trend Betting System

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    Default The Scobe Trend Betting System


    By Frank Scoblete


    In a future column I will discuss why the supposed new forms of trend betting are just more wastes of time for casino players, like all the old forms of trend betting, but in this column I am going to explain the best possible trend betting system of all time. Thatís right folks; thatís right.

    Yes, this system is new. Yes, this system is great. Yes, this system is humbly named after me and it is called ďScobeís Best Trend Bettor Bets,Ē or SBTBB for short. (ďThank you, thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Iíd like to thank me for coming up with this revolutionary idea!Ē)

    All right, I do have to be honest here and much as I would like to lie like a dirty lying liar, my wife the beautiful AP and all my gambling buddies would turn their backs on me if I did. My really big gambling buddies have rather large backs too.

    So here goes: The SBTBB cannot give you a mathematical edge over the house. No betting system can do that in random games. If someone tells you that trend betting or charting tables or lucky individuals actually helps you win, whoever says that is a heavy dissembler who thinks you are a soft touch.

    Still my SBTBB system can do three things that will help just about all gamblers even if it canít give them a mathematical edge.

    1. The SBTBB will reduce the number of decisions on which you bet. That fact will reduce your expected losses quite a lot and that is certainly a very good thing.

    2. The SBTBB will allow that thrilling feeling of anticipation to grow in your belly almost as if you are going to explode with excitement. That factor is one of the reasons people gamble in the first place --- the thrill of it all.

    3. The SBTBB has a built-in safety mechanism that will stop you from losing your cool (I hope) along with more of your money.

    And now without further adieu (even though I have a word count in this article) --- the SBTBB.

    This is a positive trend betting system. Let us take the game of roulette as our first example. The SBTBB will work on the outside bets, the red/black, the high/low and the odd/even. Each of these bets has 10 ways to lose and 9 ways to win.

    Letís say we want to bet red or black. You stand and wait for two of the same color to appear and then you bet on that color. If that color wins, you bet again on that color and you keep betting that color until you lose a bet. Then you wait for either red or black to come up twice in a row and you proceed once again.

    Now, if you place your bet and lose right away, you wait for a two color sequence again in order to bet. Note well, the only time you will ever bet back-to-back on a color is when you have won a bet; a loss immediately stops you from betting. The tendency for many gamblers is to get frustrated with a loss and to keep betting over and over, usually increasing their bets as the frustration grows. With the SBTBB this will not happen (I hope).

    Why is my method a positive way to trend bet as opposed to betting against a trend that has just occurred? If you bet against a color and lose, your tendency will be to continue to bet against that color --- giving the house a great many shots at your bankroll. The SBTBB stops this from happening.

    You can use this wonderful method of betting at craps on the Field. You can use the method at baccarat and mini-baccarat on the Bank and Player bets. You can use this at Pai Gow Poker and many of the new carnival games.

    How would you do that? After all, these are distinct card games. Baccarat is much like roulette, the Bank or Player will win (we donít count the Tie bet because that is a truly awful wager) and if one or the other wins twice in a row you then bet it. At Pai Gow pick one of the players and if he wins two in a row, jump in and bet. If you now win, you keep playing until you lose a bet and then sit out and play as before. This technique can be used for the other carnival games as well. You latch onto a player and use him/her to determine when you bet.

    It isnít hard to see how the SBTBB can reduce the number of decisions you face. The fewer decisions, the better for the bettor; the more decisions, the better for the casino. Yet, because you are waiting for a specific event to occur, two of a kind (two colors in roulette, two Bank wins in baccarat, two Field wins in craps and so on), the anticipation and adrenaline rush can become overwhelming. Youíll throb with desire to get into the game.

    In short, with the SBTBB your expectation is to lose much less, enjoy yourself more and prove to the world at large that my method of trend betting is the best that ever happened --- even if I do say so myself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post

    By Frank Scoblete


    In a future column I will discuss why the supposed new forms of trend betting are just more wastes of time for casino players, like all the old forms of trend betting, but in this column I am going to explain the best possible trend betting system of all time. Thatís right folks; thatís right.

    Yes, this system is new. Yes, this system is great. Yes, this system is humbly named after me and it is called ďScobeís Best Trend Bettor Bets,Ē or SBTBB for short. (ďThank you, thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Iíd like to thank me for coming up with this revolutionary idea!Ē)

    All right, I do have to be honest here and much as I would like to lie like a dirty lying liar, my wife the beautiful AP and all my gambling buddies would turn their backs on me if I did. My really big gambling buddies have rather large backs too.

    So here goes: The SBTBB cannot give you a mathematical edge over the house. No betting system can do that in random games. If someone tells you that trend betting or charting tables or lucky individuals actually helps you win, whoever says that is a heavy dissembler who thinks you are a soft touch.

    Still my SBTBB system can do three things that will help just about all gamblers even if it canít give them a mathematical edge.

    1. The SBTBB will reduce the number of decisions on which you bet. That fact will reduce your expected losses quite a lot and that is certainly a very good thing.

    2. The SBTBB will allow that thrilling feeling of anticipation to grow in your belly almost as if you are going to explode with excitement. That factor is one of the reasons people gamble in the first place --- the thrill of it all.

    3. The SBTBB has a built-in safety mechanism that will stop you from losing your cool (I hope) along with more of your money.

    And now without further adieu (even though I have a word count in this article) --- the SBTBB.

    This is a positive trend betting system. Let us take the game of roulette as our first example. The SBTBB will work on the outside bets, the red/black, the high/low and the odd/even. Each of these bets has 10 ways to lose and 9 ways to win.

    Letís say we want to bet red or black. You stand and wait for two of the same color to appear and then you bet on that color. If that color wins, you bet again on that color and you keep betting that color until you lose a bet. Then you wait for either red or black to come up twice in a row and you proceed once again.

    Now, if you place your bet and lose right away, you wait for a two color sequence again in order to bet. Note well, the only time you will ever bet back-to-back on a color is when you have won a bet; a loss immediately stops you from betting. The tendency for many gamblers is to get frustrated with a loss and to keep betting over and over, usually increasing their bets as the frustration grows. With the SBTBB this will not happen (I hope).

    Why is my method a positive way to trend bet as opposed to betting against a trend that has just occurred? If you bet against a color and lose, your tendency will be to continue to bet against that color --- giving the house a great many shots at your bankroll. The SBTBB stops this from happening.

    You can use this wonderful method of betting at craps on the Field. You can use the method at baccarat and mini-baccarat on the Bank and Player bets. You can use this at Pai Gow Poker and many of the new carnival games.

    How would you do that? After all, these are distinct card games. Baccarat is much like roulette, the Bank or Player will win (we donít count the Tie bet because that is a truly awful wager) and if one or the other wins twice in a row you then bet it. At Pai Gow pick one of the players and if he wins two in a row, jump in and bet. If you now win, you keep playing until you lose a bet and then sit out and play as before. This technique can be used for the other carnival games as well. You latch onto a player and use him/her to determine when you bet.

    It isnít hard to see how the SBTBB can reduce the number of decisions you face. The fewer decisions, the better for the bettor; the more decisions, the better for the casino. Yet, because you are waiting for a specific event to occur, two of a kind (two colors in roulette, two Bank wins in baccarat, two Field wins in craps and so on), the anticipation and adrenaline rush can become overwhelming. Youíll throb with desire to get into the game.

    In short, with the SBTBB your expectation is to lose much less, enjoy yourself more and prove to the world at large that my method of trend betting is the best that ever happened --- even if I do say so myself.
    Scoblete is a complete idiot. That fact was unanimously proven when he advanced the Five Count in his craps system. Bet both sides of the pass/don't pass line and then take odds after five rolls. A straight pass line wager is -1.41% but betting both sides returns -2.77%. Absolutely brilliant!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    Scoblete is a complete idiot. That fact was unanimously proven when he advanced the Five Count in his craps system. Bet both sides of the pass/don't pass line and then take odds after five rolls. A straight pass line wager is -1.41% but betting both sides returns -2.77%. Absolutely brilliant!
    Scobe is a successful author, of 34 books, mostly about gambling and how to overcome the House Edge at various casino games. He has a keen sense of humour.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    Scoblete is a complete idiot.
    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Scobe is a successful author, of 34 books, mostly about gambling
    You're both right.
    Truth demands knowledge. Deceit demands faith.

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    As much as Scoblete's written on craps, I'm surprised he even recommended betting on the Field! He knows better than that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    Scoblete is a complete idiot. That fact was unanimously proven when he advanced the Five Count in his craps system. Bet both sides of the pass/don't pass line and then take odds after five rolls. A straight pass line wager is -1.41% but betting both sides returns -2.77%. Absolutely brilliant!
    Betting both sides has a house edge of 1/72. You will break even every time except for boxcars when you will lose half of your total wager.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    Scoblete is a complete idiot. That fact was unanimously proven when he advanced the Five Count in his craps system. Bet both sides of the pass/don't pass line and then take odds after five rolls. A straight pass line wager is -1.41% but betting both sides returns -2.77%. Absolutely brilliant!
    The type of betting where a player bets both pass line and don't pass is referred to as the Doey-Don't (also dubbed the Supersystem), where the player is playing for the odds. Scoblete discusses this method in his book "Forever Craps." When I first read about this method I wasn't sure what to make of it but I really didn't like it and have never bet in this manner while playing craps. The thing that struck me is which side of the bet is the player going to place their odds on? Depending on the number rolled it could help to influence a decision where a player may place their odds bet, such as a player rolling a come out point of 4, where the player is favored to win if they lay odds on the don't pass.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    The thing that struck me is which side of the bet is the player going to place their odds on?
    Go with the trend, of course?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey View Post
    Betting both sides has a house edge of 1/72. You will break even every time except for boxcars when you will lose half of your total wager.
    1/72...WOW... this is the best HE for an Advantage Play I ever saw...

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    Latest from Scobe

    Look, he does look like Dennis McAndrew

    By Frank Scoblete


    FROM VINCENT: Please help me think this through via your experience and math skills. I think I have found a better way to utilize the Pass Line bet at craps.

    In craps, the traditional advice is to bet as little as possible on the Pass Line and then take the “Odds” bet as high as possible once the Point is established.

    I have wondered if the logic I use below should be given some consideration by gambling writers such as you. It might be a new way to look at the Pass Line bet.

    Traditional logic says to place $5.00 on the Pass Line and $25.00 as an Odds bet in a 5X Odds game.

    But now how about this untraditional logic? Place the whole $30 on the Pass Line to take advantage on the very favorable odds of the Come-Out roll being the 7 or 11 --- you have a two-to-one edge on that Come-Out roll because you make the 7 and 11 eight times but only lose on the 2, 3 and 12 four times.

    Thus, you have an immediate $30 win versus a mere $5 win and you avoid the easy-to-roll losing 7 as you try to make that Point.

    What is your analysis?

    FRANK RESPONDS: Your idea sounds good. Your idea sounds logical. Your idea will cost you six times more money than playing the traditional way.

    Keep in mind that the Pass Line bet comes in with a 1.41 percent house edge, which means for every $100 you bet on the Pass Line you will lose $1.41. As you know that’s one of the best bets in the casino. Keep in mind that edge covers both the Come-Out roll and the Point aspect of the game.

    On a $5 Pass Line bet your expectation is to lose a mere seven cents. Pretty good if you ask me.

    Now watch what happens when you put $30 up on the Pass Line. You can expect to win those eight bets when the 7 and 11 show and you will lose those four bets on the 2, 3 and 12 --- just as you stated. But (and this is the BIG BUT) when that $30 makes its way to a number, which it will 24 times, the house edge becomes immense. It basically obliterates that two-to-one edge on the Come-Out roll.

    Now, your $30 will lose that 1.41 percent and your expected loss will be 42 cents which is much more than the loss from the $5 Pass Line bet.

    Yes, the Pass Line bet is a good bet but it can be made a far better bet if you follow the traditional model.

    Players who enjoy Place bets, even if the bets they place are the best Place bets of the 6 and the 8, also have their logic seemingly right yet such logic still costs them much more money. If you use the $5 Pass Line bet, the house edge as stated is 1.41 percent, a loss of seven cents.

    The Place bet of the 6 or 8 comes in with a house edge of 1.52 percent which is pretty close to the 1.41 percent of the Pass Line bet. But in fact the Place bet is much worse because you must Place the 6 or 8 for $6. The expected loss now becomes nine cents.

    So even though the placing of the 6 and 8 are considered good bets --- and they are --- they are nowhere near as good as the Pass Line bet. (Also remember that Come bets have the same edge as the Pass Line bet.)

    Obviously the other Place bets are skunks. On the 5 and 9 your expected loss on $5 is 20 cents. On the 4 and 10 it is a blood letting. You lose 33 cents on $5. You can see by this comparison how awful placing those outside numbers can be. Yet craps players make these bets all the time.

    Although the Place bets can be shown to be weak in comparison to the Pass Line and Come bets, the other bets in the middle of the table really stink worse than the stink emanating from those Place bets. My mentor the late Captain of Craps calls those bets Crazy Crapper bets and with good reason. His assertion: “You have to be crazy to make them.”

    There is a solid reason why savvy gambling writers strongly recommend Pass Line and Come bets. Your expectation is to lose much less money and that means at any given session your chances of coming out ahead are markedly improved.

  12. #12

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    The resemblance is pretty close Katz. As far as the article is concerned Scoblete is telling the guy what he preaches in his books. I thought he gave a good response to the question he was presented with.
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; February 18th, 2015 at 12:53 AM.

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    Ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu once said: "Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster."

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    I'm sticking with my first thought. I don't think it's him.

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    The Improbable? Or the Inevitable?
    You are at the craps table and the 12 rolls four times in a row. The odds of that happening are immense. At blackjack, two people come to the table at the same time and both get blackjacks --- back to back. After that you watch their play and they are not advantage players. They don’t even know basic strategy. A guy hits two inside numbers in a row at roulette. Then he bets the outside red and black and wins six in a row!

    The same woman wins two lotteries in New Jersey. Two people, a father and a son, have train accidents on the same day in two separate years. Someone is hit by lightning not twice but three times. You are thinking of a friend from years back and the next day that friend contacts you on Facebook.

    These all seem to be amazing events. Yet, how amazing are they --- how amazing are they really?
    Not as amazing as you think.

    A great new book “The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day” by David J. Hand tackles the math behind “improbable events” and even supposedly “impossible” events.


    Let me give you some examples from our casino gambling world: A self-proclaimed dice controller (no not me) learns the skill from a class he took and for several trips to the casino, after practicing for several weeks, he wins --- session after session for several days. He has never won more than one trip in a row in his life. That streak must prove he has dice control ability, right? No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.

    A blackjack player comes upon the simplest card counting method of all time; he studies goes to the casino and loses session after session --- about 10 in a row. The card counting system must not work. No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.

    I can go on and on. Wild streaks; wild wins and wild losses occur in casinos; they occur all the time. Why is that so? This book will explain it all.

    Are there advantage players in craps and blackjack (and video poker and poker and Pai Gow Poker)? Yes. But the proof of the pudding is not a few wild streaks even if those streaks are seemingly mind-boggling. To establish advantage takes far more proof than just “improbable” events occurring.

    I think readers on this web site will enjoy the book and if you aren’t schooled in improbability theory the book will open your eyes.
    Is the book so mathematically difficult that the average reader such as me will be at a loss to understand it? No. Author David Hand has been able to make the concepts in the book totally understandable.

    If you are interested in the improbable (or gambling) I think this book will speak to you.
    Frank Scoblete author of I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack



    William Yanusaites Frank,I was on a table at the old "Lady Luck",saw six straight 7's on come out roll...

    Last edited by Katz; February 25th, 2015 at 11:16 PM.

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