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Thread: Mythbusters- Monty Hall 3 Door Pick

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
    wowser, i see that i may well be in error regarding the need for monty's collusion for the problem to work as it does or not. gotta look into that and try and understand it. thank you Dodo.
    edit: my guess is that since my stipulation that the car never comes up if monty is not colluding is unrealistic, then by golly monty needs to be colluding for the gig to work.
    edit: perhaps this subtle aspect is what is throwing SoFlaLaw, the article states that it may be the reason that intuitively so many people get the wrong answer.
    ahhh, ok, here is the thing, absolute collusion on monty's part is not necessary, but some factor that brings on the same phenomenon (ie. the prize is not revealed) must occur on a consistent basis virtually ad infiniitim sorta thing.
    nuthur words, it a'int gotta be collusion, could just be completely innocent actions mimicking the same action of collusion. key thing being, that prize can't be revealed with certainty.
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

  2. #47
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    Everyone,

    Thank you for indulging me. I understand your points, I just don't agree with the underlying assumptions. So, I agree to disagree, and leave it at that.

    Happy New Year. BTW - Did everyone know that Vanna Marie Rosich was born on February 18, 1957? She's turning 58 this year. I'd say she's aging pretty gracefully (or has some great surgeons at her beck and call).
    Last edited by SoFlaLaw; January 8th, 2015 at 02:36 PM.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    I agree to disagree, and leave it at that.
    I can go one better:

    Let's setup a Monty Hall game and make some wagers - $500 per play - you will never switch.
    Game on?

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    BTW - Did everyone know that Vanna Marie Rosich was born on February 18, 1957? She's turning 58 this year. I'd say she's aging pretty gracefully (or has some great surgeons at her beck and call).
    Looks great!


  5. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parpaluck View Post
    No matter what losing door Monte Hall “erases” (the x in the graphic), the Player will always have 2 of 6 winning choices (1/3) on Stand and 4 of 6 winning choices on Change (2/3). You can see that there are 4 W remaining for Change as opposed to 2 for Stay.
    Did Saliu get one right??
    http://saliu.com/monty-paradox.html
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
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    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  6. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    I can go one better:

    Let's setup a Monty Hall game and make some wagers - $500 per play - you will never switch.
    Game on?
    I'll go partners with DD! I think we can use this applet for the game? ->
    http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtm...MakeaDeal.html
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  7. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    I'll go partners with DD! I think we can use this applet for the game? ->
    http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtm...MakeaDeal.html
    Or one of these? ->
    http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/...mpleMontyHall/
    http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
    Last edited by zengrifter; January 8th, 2015 at 08:29 PM.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    I agree to disagree, and leave it at that.
    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    I can go one better:
    Let's setup a Monty Hall game and make some wagers - $500 per play - you will never switch.
    Game on?
    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    I'll go partners with DD! I think we can use this applet for the game? ->
    http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtm...MakeaDeal.html
    Hello Counselor?

  9. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    Hello Counselor?
    I guess there's no bet?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    i guess there's no bet?
    moooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

  11. #56
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    Thumbs up If All You Have Is a Hammer, Everything Looks Like Nails

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Did Saliu get one right??
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

  12. #57
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    Cool No Bet For Bongo

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    I guess there's no bet?
    Apparently, the Esquire thinks the programmed game simulators cheat if my ability to interpret legalese is accurate...
    Quote Originally Posted by SoFlaLaw View Post
    Since I did not develop the program that was written to generate that application, I cannot know whether there was a bias toward assuming that the probability value of Door 2 vsn only be reallocated to Door 3, and not to Door 1. Consequently, my acceptance or rejection of your challenge has no bearing on resolving this discussion, but rather, would only prove/disprove that based upon the parameters of the computer program, a certain result can and should be expected.

  13. #58
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    Arrow anuther mythbuster type problem Can Information Rise From Randomness?

    somebody figure this one out:

    "I write down two different numbers that are completely unknown to you, and hold one in my left hand and one in my right. You have absolutely no idea how I generated these two numbers. Which is larger? You can point to one of my hands, and I will show you the number in it. Then you can decide to either select the number you have seen or switch to the number you have not seen, held in the other hand, as your final choice. Is there a strategy that will give you a greater than 50 percent chance of choosing the larger number, no matter which two numbers I write down?
    ......................
    ......................
    Since you have no basis to prefer the number in either hand over the other, your chances of guessing the larger one should remain stubbornly stuck at 50 percent. The problem is impossible to solve by purely logical means, right?

    Wrong! I assure you that there is a way to bring your chances of choosing the larger number above 50 percent. If you were to bet a sum of money for each guess and receive even money every time you were correct, you would always come out ahead in the long run."
    from: https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150...om-randomness/
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
    somebody figure this one out
    A hint for you (and others who might be interested): The answer is probably related to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

    If one were to take the effort to do so, an analysis using Benford's law on the distribution of results can help to detect possible deception in gambling logs.
    Last edited by Dodo; July 8th, 2015 at 10:18 AM.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    A hint for you (and others who might be interested): The answer is probably related to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

    If one were to take the effort to do so, an analysis using Benford's law on the distribution of results can help to detect possible deception in gambling logs.
    thank you Dodo. so if i'm understanding Benford's law at all, it appears the first choice will tend to be the smallest number so one should switch, in the two hand choice game described in Quanta, no?
    best regards,
    mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
    STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
    that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
    for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrTiP4ZIUfI

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