+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 24 12345611 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 347

Thread: Ion Saliu (aka Parpaluck), Advantage Gambling Renaissance Man or Charlatan?

  1. #1

    Default Ion Saliu (aka Parpaluck), Advantage Gambling Renaissance Man or Charlatan?

    Our esteemed axiomatic member Parpaluck is a controversial progenitor of gambling strategies and software who has seen his share of attacks and controversy.
    The floor is open for discussion. Let's keep this discussion reasonably polite and good natured.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Atlanta area
    Posts
    3,193

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Our esteemed axiomatic member Parpaluck is a controversial progenitor of gambling strategies and software who has seen his share of attacks and controversy.
    The floor is open for discussion. Let's keep this discussion reasonably polite and good natured.
    Allow me to kick-off the soiree with a kind reference to Ion by conspiracy writer and radio host Clint Richardson at his popular 'Reality Blog' --

    ... the actual “odds” at wining at blackjack are all over the spectrem of opinion and hope. And the word winning must also be defined here. The odds at “winning” one hand are different than winning five hands, which are different than winning ten. The average player plays tens or hundreds of hands in a single trip, and thousands of hands in his lifetime. So winning on one gambling trip doesn’t mean that person is ahead on their life totals. But I guarentee that the last remodel or expansion on your favorite casino was instituted with part of yours and others total losses!

    According to Ion Saliu’s Paradox (PDF): random generation does not generate all possible combination’s, as the odds that a hand will repeat before all possible hands are dealt are a sure thing. So, to consider the odds, random generation is not an accurate source. If there are 334,490,044 total possible complete hands in blackjack, and we randomly generate 334,490,044 hands, the statistics show that approximately 63% will be unique and 37% will be repeats.

    And the point is… if you can show me a person (besides Rain Man) who can sit down and play that many hands, with no outside influences, with no burned cards, with no change of dealers or bathroom breaks, with no dealer mistakes, and with no sleep… then I will except the odds you come up with.

    In other words, whenever you hear someone quote the odds and tell you the right way to play blackjack, they are talking out of their butt – which is where you should tell them to stick their advice! Likewise, if you take advice from a stock broker (who makes money from your wins and your losses regardless) or from the government (who’s investment owned corporations are on the other side of your trade, and who wins your losses) you are a fool, and are playing into the trap of legalized embezzlement through stock market gambling.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    In the YO
    Posts
    15,588

    Default

    Clint Richardson has some interesting points there... as does Saliu.com here...

    Page 156 of Probability Theory, Live by Ion Saliu, I read this:

    Let me start by saying that the game of blackjack has caused
    me the most serious problems with casinos and gambling
    developers, authors, and system vendors. Blackjack or
    twenty-one (as seen the movie 21) is the most popular casino
    game and the most researched one. There are plenty of books
    dedicated to the so-called mathematics of blackjack.


    There is worthiness in a few of such books or e-books. For
    the most part, however, there isn’t much mathematics in all
    those blackjack studies. The heart of the matter is a worthless
    concept known as card counting.


    Worthless concept? Oh dear... Pluck, is it any wonder all them Blackjack bookwriters hate your gutz! You are anathema to them, and a heretic or the worst kind. You are just like them damn heretics had so much trouble with from the Vatican during their murderous 600-year Reign of Terror called the Inquisition... when that Sect burned 5m innocent victims alive. (Don't listen to a Vatican spokesman here who will tell you it was only 6000 odd, and the church didn't do it, it was them stinkin secular authorities what did it...)

    In a similar vein to the Catholics then, the Card Counting Sect of Brothers would like to silence you permanently until forevah for propagating such obscenities... obscenities that strike to the very core of their devout beliefs. How friggin dare you write such lies! Everyone knows card counting works! Except Sonny. And Me... (one of millions of failed card counters... thank you Arnold, thank you Don, thank you Ferguson Wong, et al...)

    Now, if there are 334,490,044 possible hands at blackjack, (in how many decks?) how many possible hands are there in 6 and 8-deck shoes?
    Last edited by Katz; May 27th, 2014 at 05:46 PM.

  4. #4

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Clint Richardson has some interesting points there... as does Saliu.com here...

    Page 156 of Probability Theory, Live by Ion Saliu, I read this:
    Let me start by saying that the game of blackjack has caused
    me the most serious problems with casinos and gambling
    developers, authors, and system vendors. Blackjack or
    twenty-one (as seen the movie 21) is the most popular casino
    game and the most researched one. There are plenty of books
    dedicated to the so-called mathematics of blackjack.

    There is worthiness in a few of such books or e-books. For
    the most part, however, there isn’t much mathematics in all
    those blackjack studies. The heart of the matter is a worthless
    concept known as card counting.
    -----------------
    Worthless concept? Oh dear... Pluck, is it any wonder all them Blackjack bookwriters hate your gutz! You are anathema to them, and a heretic or the worst kind.
    Or he's a charlatan. It should be fun for all to explore and learn and decide:
    I for one, my old BJ knowledge is so 20th century. I am ready to enter the new age of BJ enlightenment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Now, if there are way over 334,490,044 possible hands at blackjack, (in how many decks?) how many possible hands are there in 6 and 8-deck shoes?
    Is that a BJ zen koan? Or the theme of the next James Grosjean (gasbag of a) post?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  5. #5

    Default

    Just for posterity, is Ion meaning to say that card counting flat-out simply doesn't work --
    -- or is he really saying that card counting does work but that he has a "better stronger" approach?

    Is he using the word "worthless" in an artful or a factual sense?

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Clint Richardson has some interesting points there... as does Saliu.com here...

    Page 156 of Probability Theory, Live by Ion Saliu, I read this:
    -----------------
    Let me start by saying that the game of blackjack has caused

    me the most serious problems with casinos and gambling
    developers, authors, and system vendors. Blackjack or
    twenty-one (as seen the movie 21) is the most popular casino
    game and the most researched one. There are plenty of books
    dedicated to the so-called mathematics of blackjack.

    There is worthiness in a few of such books or e-books. For
    the most part, however, there isn’t much mathematics in all
    those blackjack studies. The heart of the matter is a worthless
    concept known as card counting.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    In the YO
    Posts
    15,588

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Just for posterity, is Ion meaning to say that card counting flat-out simply doesn't work, or is he really saying that card counting does work but that he has a better stronger approach?
    Read his lips: ...a worthless concept known as card counting.

    Could he be any clearer?

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    Read his lips: ...a worthless concept known as card counting.
    Could he be any clearer?
    That is what I was afraid of.
    Does he mean that it never worked and that the concept is fundamentally flawed and invalid? -
    - or that it did work back in the day but that it's "worthless" for today's 'Modern Blackjack?' (pun intended)
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    In the YO
    Posts
    15,588

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    That is what I was afraid of.
    Does he mean that it never worked and that the concept is fundamentally flawed and invalid? -
    - or that it did work back in the day but that it's "worthless" for today's 'Modern Blackjack?' (pun intended)
    Here (below) are just two of Ion's ideas on BJ that have inflamed the CC Mob. He has more! For probably the first time in living BJ history, the pros and cons of his extra-ordinary BJ beliefs, can be discussed sanely, rationally and without fear or favour... I hope.


    there are 334,490,044 possible hands at blackjack...

    * * * *

    The best-case scenario regarding dealer’s bust probabilities
    for the game of blackjack reads,
    Total BJ Actions: 476246
    Total Draws (Hits): 178631
    Total Nonbust Hands: 97735
    Total Dealer BUSTS: 199880 (41.97%) []
    Total Complete BJ Hands: 297615
    Total Blackjacks (10+A): 64 (4.83%)


  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    For probably the first time in living BJ history, the pros and cons of [Ion Saliu's] extra-ordinary BJ beliefs, can be discussed sanely, rationally and without fear or favour... I hope.
    Be careful what you wish for.
    That image above - isn't that Jim Carrey in The Mask of Loki?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    In the YO
    Posts
    15,588

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Be careful what you wish for.
    That image above - isn't that Jim Carrey in The Mask of Loki?
    Nope, it's Rolling Stones-connected.


  11. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Atlanta area
    Posts
    3,193

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Katz View Post
    The best-case scenario regarding dealer’s bust probabilities
    for the game of blackjack reads,
    Total BJ Actions: 476246
    Total Draws (Hits): 178631
    Total Nonbust Hands: 97735
    Total Dealer BUSTS: 199880 (41.97%) []
    Total Complete BJ Hands: 297615
    I'm not clear that the 42% bust is meaningful.
    For one thing, the number is so high-different than other established authorities, one must wonder that IF it were true would a different basic strategy be required, and if so it would appear to offer an off-the-top advantage, no? It looks to me, at a glance, like Dr. Saliu forgot to subtract the number of player busts, which would negate the dealer busts by the same amount.

    From Wizard of Odds -
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    In the YO
    Posts
    15,588

    Default

    From P 163+ Ion book:

    "1. The name of the first program is BjDealerOrder.
    EXE. It generates all possible blackjack hands as arrangements.
    That is, the order of the cards is of the essence. Total number of
    qualified (completed) BJ hands is staggering for all one-deck
    regular files: 334,490,044.

    Blackjack lexicographic hands can be only generated from
    a list, such as a deck of cards. Lotto combinations can be
    generated from a list as well. The list, however, must be
    ordered lexicographically (e.g., from 1 to 49, 49 elements,
    and 1 element per line). Blackjack hand generating faces a
    tremendous obstacle of its own. The number of elements per
    combination (or per arrangement) varies widely: from 2 cards
    to 10 or 11 cards per hand.

    That was the challenge that kept gambling programmers
    paralyzed up until now. It is so much easier to say simulation!
    That is, generate blackjack hands randomly! Many kids can
    do that, like many adults. But I reserve the right to doubt
    everybody’s accuracy in generating blackjack hands. I’ve seen
    so much falsity out there, including pathological lying and
    deception. Card counting is the most blatant example. Selling
    card-counting systems is still a sizable gambling business.
    All for naught!


    ...And now, the shocking results! If you go all the way down to the bottom of BjAllHands1Combos.TXT, you see that the bust
    percentage is 41.97%. Wow! We all believed John Scarne and
    his “biblical” figure of 28%! Keep this new figure in mind:
    The odds for a blackjack dealer’s bust are at least 41.97%.
    The bust probability is calculated by dividing the number of
    dealer’s busted hands to the total possible blackjack actions.
    Blackjack action is a parameter that counts everything: busted
    hands, pat hands (17 to 21), blackjack hands, and draws or
    hits (incomplete hands). The software does not print the
    incomplete hands."

    ~

    Let us take one controversial issue at a time, eh? Take this one first:

    334,490,044 is the number Ion gives us of possible hands from one deck of cards. That is my understanding from reading Ion's book. Ion, is that correct? I have never seen such a huge figure mentioned in all my days at various BJ websites over years, where they were always blathering on about sims. (As an aside, what is the number of possible hands for a 6-deck shoe, and a 8-deck shoe? I am vitally interested in this because I am an aficionado of MHBJ... MultiHandBlackjack.)
    Last edited by Katz; May 28th, 2014 at 03:59 AM.

  13. #13

    Default

    Gloriously Axiomatic Colleagues of Mine:

    My sincerest thanks for your increased interest in this never-humble discoverer of discoveries and creator of creations. I appreciate even Charlatan Askobolan who writes with the venom of his veins. I wonder why he doesn’t publish bad things about Ion “Parpaluck” Saliu in N0rm’s forum! After all, the Lizard of Odds allowed a thread about me in his forum!

    This thread appears to be mostly about dealer bust odds. Yes, it is one of my mathematical discoveries. The probability is calculated precisely in mathematics — it ain’t about spewing venom when you dislike the author.

    • Probability = Favorable_Cases / Total-Cases

    Only software can generate all possible blackjack hands and count the busting hands based on Dealer’s rules. To this point in time, only the software I wrote is capable of carrying out such demanding tasks. The software can work with any number of cards, up to as many decks as the user wants (provided a fast computer is at hand). In order to verify, I started with 13 cards, as if one suit from 2 to Ace. In all cases, the results are the correct ones. One undeniable element is the amount of naturals (Ace+10) and the percentages.

    The odds calculations are based on the Dealer’s rules. But keep in mind the sequence of the hands. The Dealer always plays last. Had the Dealer always played the first hand, there will be no blackjack. In fact, all casinos will go bankrupt! There is another mathematical thingy that rattles even worse the venomous stupidiots who don’t believe in gambling math(s). “There ain’t no mathematical formula in randomness. You are a con man!” That thingy is known as the probability of M successes in N trials. The more players get busted, the lower the chance for a Dealer bust. There are situations when the entire table busts — the Dealer doesn’t even have to play his hand!

    This is mathematics. Card-counting is NOT mathematics. In fact, mathematics strongly disproves the validity of card counting under the current conditions (multiple decks and players, and penetration). All authors and developers of card counting systems know the reality — but they hide it. That’s why I said in another thread that card counting is the biggest deception in gambling. That rattled N0rm badly and he restarted the attacks. He even enrolled his pit-bull, Askobolan, who writes with the venom in his veins. That’s why all recent Facebook warfare, where a fake Norm Watt cursed me again.

    Keep writing, Gloriomatics! I always mean when I say: “Curse me, but mention me by name!” It would deserve an award to curse me in N0rm’s forum… I mean it…


    “I received a phone call
    From one who claimed was tall;
    Then, he cursed me even worse
    For my gambling on the horse.”


    Ion Saliu,
    Founder of Gambling Mathematics
    Blackjack Dealer Bust: New Software to Calculate Odds

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Atlanta area
    Posts
    3,193

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Parpaluck View Post
    I appreciate even Charlatan Askobolan who writes with the venom of his veins.
    Aslan is no charlatan and honest as the day is long.
    That said, he may either need some convincing, or he may never be convinced ...
    Aslan, Parpa says that the missing link in all previous BJ knowledge evolution to date, starting with Baldwin and Cantey at Los Alamos in the 50s up to present, is his 'lexicographic-sequencing' approach to his software calculation process (whatever the hell that means?).

  15. #15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    It looks to me, at a glance, like Dr. Saliu forgot to subtract the number of player busts, which would negate the dealer busts by the same amount.

    The numbers are close - adding the dealer bust to the player bust, maybe you nailed it DD?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

+ Reply to Thread

Similar Threads

  1. WTF KATZ & PARPALUCK? NEED NEW FORUM!!
    By KewlJ in forum Site Announcements & Questions
    Replies: 21
    Last Post: July 14th, 2016, 10:25 AM
  2. The Universe According to Parpaluck
    By Katz in forum Voodoo & Unconfirmed Gambling Systems
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: March 22nd, 2015, 01:28 AM
  3. Ion Saliu (aka Parpaluck), Your Humble Zen Musician & Gambling System Innovator
    By Ion Saliu Fan in forum Voodoo & Unconfirmed Gambling Systems
    Replies: 389
    Last Post: May 29th, 2014, 03:26 AM
  4. The Secret Story of LV Downtown Renaissance
    By zengrifter in forum Gambling AP Community Miscellanea
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: January 12th, 2014, 11:05 PM
  5. Evolution of the Apocalypse - Empire's Demise - Human Renaissance
    By Solve et Coagula in forum Religious Cults & Spirituality
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: August 5th, 2011, 07:16 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts