From Ion Saliu's Lotto FB page ...
(Does sound a bit charlatanesque. What are the terms of the 'guarantee'?)
From Ion Saliu's Lotto FB page ...
(Does sound a bit charlatanesque. What are the terms of the 'guarantee'?)
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
This demonstrates better than anything I could say just how pernicious are the convoluted double talk fake teachings of Ion Salui and how easily unsophisticated individuals can be taken in. I wonder if his tripe qualifies for vice squad material? Who does police the internet, anyway?
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
“There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.” Bishop Fulton J. Sheen
“It takes a very long time to become young.” ― Pablo Picasso
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
The above statement is likely based on Probability Theory, Live! (163) that states, "And now, the shocking results! If you go all the way down to the bottom of BjAllHands1Combos.TXT, you see that the bust percentage is 41.97%. Wow! We all believed John Scarne and his “biblical” figure of 28%! Keep this new figure in mind: The odds for a blackjack dealer’s bust are at least 41.97%. The bust probability is calculated by dividing the number of dealer’s busted hands to the total possible blackjack actions." However, the number of favorable combinations / number of total combinations is not the probability. One needs to use arrangements, not combinations. However, there is something very odd about the counts in the two scenarios later on the same page of the book. For example, "Total Dealer BUSTS: 224469768 (64.89%); Total Complete BJ Hands: 334490044; Total Blackjacks (10+A): 128 (4.83%)." How can busting (64.89%) be 1753670 times as likely as a blackjack (4.83%)? The 128 blackjacks being 4.83% suggests there are only 2650 possible arrangements. Page 162 indicates, "The output files are also available absolutely freely as downloads: BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT." I would like to view these files. Link?
Last edited by Dodo; May 28th, 2014 at 11:20 PM.
P41 Saliu
"Also important—and contrary to common belief—is that the past draws do count in
any game of chance, and Pascal demonstrated that hundreds of
years ago...
I was able to answer such a question and quantify it in
a mathematical expression (logarithmic) I named the
Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). We already met
the FFG in chapter 1. Indeed, the formula is fundamental.
log(1 – DC)
p = --------------------
log(1 – p)
Indeed, FFG is the most essential formula of theory of
probability. This formula was directly derived from the most Probability Theory, Live!
fundamental formula of probability: number of favorable cases, n, over total possible cases, N: n / N.
The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) is a historic
discovery in theory of probability, theory of games, and
gambling mathematics. The formula offers an incredibly
real and practical correlation with gambling phenomena.
As a matter of fact, FFG is applicable to any sort of highly
randomized events: lottery, roulette, blackjack, horse racing,
sports betting, even stock trading..."
~ ~ ~ ~
FFG: FORMULA FROM GOD
We saw Ion blaming Pascal for destroying the concept of Gamblers' Fallacy! Good. Then there is FFG: his historic discovery. Well, I hope so... about time somebody did!
I am more intimately concerned with I have 10,2, and the dealer has 10 up. Here I will bust if my next card is a 10 and my $1000 will go down the drain with only a whimper from me. Card counting cannot help, because the true count is 0. Can the FFG help me now?... I don't think so. Can anything help me now? Yes, two things... God and Ion's Dealer Bust figure of 41.97%. Much to the howls, threats and crap headed my way from those other idiots further down the table (I am at third base), I wave off, sit on my 12 and the dealer goes 2,10 bust. Thank you God! Thank you Saliu.com!
Last edited by Katz; May 29th, 2014 at 02:56 AM.
So, so, confused! Uhhhh, if I'm understanding this right Parpaluck is saying card counting is bogus! Wtf!!
Are you saying that ole Mr N's software is crap and bogus? All an illusion?
A wise man once told me that " numbers don't lie". He is and was correct at the time I was told that.
So who to believe? I don't like Mr N, but that's purely political belief differences. His software isn't needed, in the "real world" of advantage play.
Parpaluck....uhhhhhh......I guess I'm going to call bullshit as we call it on the farm . I'm close to having 20 years under my belt as an AP. I have APed everything from slots to vp to BJ to carny games in the casinos.
Strait CC ing BJ is very much real although the edge is so small it's not worth a humans time. 1 or 2 or 3 percent edges suck. Give me 5%, 10, 15, 40, 80, 100% and yes 2 or 300% edges. I've never had the honor of a 300% edge yet, 200, yes I have ,twice. It was dam assed fun!
Am I correct in seeing you think you can beat the lotto? Predict numbers? Uhhhhhhh...ok....hmmmm
I haven't been to any FB pages or know to much about what's being discussed here, I have a farm to run, a wife to love, and AP trips to go on.
But if I'm correctly getting what's going on here, you sir are a Loon! Some how you have numbers scrambled around in your head that aren't right.
Give me a plus count in BJ single deck of +5 or more and I'll mortgage the farm to make that bet.
Ok, well........not sure I want to jump into this fire.....lol
Machinist".............aka......Mac
So look buddy it's nothing personal, but either your the unluckiest person in the world or your stealing from me. Either way............ I WANT NO PART OF YOU!!!!!! NEVER!!!!
“Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /newreply.php on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.”
OK! I “sanitized” my post to satisfy the “pious” ZGeetser. My post, however, is terribly incomplete… I can’t afford to waste my time…
Arrangement is a numeric set in combinatorics. Some incorrectly call the arrangements N Permutations M or permutations of N elements taken M at a time. You understand arrangements better if you consider the horse-racing trifectas. If there are 10 them horses in a race, there are 10 * 9 * 8 = 720 straight trifectas. Or, there are (10 * 9 * 8 / 3 * 2 * 1) = 120 boxed trifectas. The boxed arrangements are also knows as combinations (the foundation of jackpot lotto games such 6 from 49). You can read a lot more about it on my combinatorial Web page —
· Combinatorics, arrangements, combinations.
You must generate all possible hands in blackjack if you want to calculate probabilities (odds) with maximum accuracy. The outcome can be arrangements or combinations. Total possibilities can amount to staggering numbers of blackjack hands, in this case. You can handle better the ideas if you work first with smaller card decks. I referred you earlier to a webpage that exemplified in great detail all combinatorial concepts:
· Blackjack Dealer Bust: New Software to Calculate Odds.
Ion Saliu,
Founder of Gambling Mathematics
“Grind old norms for better new rules!”
– attempt to continue my post –
This text file shows all blackjack hands as combinations based on Dealer’s rules. Total cards: 13 (only one suit, from 2 to Ace).
This text file shows all blackjack hands based on Dealer’s rules as arrangements. Total cards: 13 (only one suit, from 2 to Ace).
Look at the first hands as combinations:
2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 8 *
2 3 4 5 9 *
2 3 4 5 10 *
2 3 4 5 10 *
2 3 4 5 10 *
2 3 4 5 10 *
…
The first 4 cards (2 3 4 5) sum up to 14; the Dealer must hit. The hands marked by * are busts.
Look at the first hands as arrangements:
2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 8
2 3 4 5 9
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 11 6
2 3 4 5 11 7
2 3 4 5 11 8
2 3 4 5 11 9
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 6 5
2 3 4 6 7
2 3 4 6 8
2 3 4 6 9
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 11 5
2 3 4 6 11 7
2 3 4 6 11 8
2 3 4 6 11 9
2 3 4 6 11 10
…
Look at a card sequence as this: 2 3 4 5 11 10 . 14 + 11 = 25 — that would be a bust, but we count the Ace as 1 in this situation. So, 14 + 1(1) = 15 — must hit; Dealer gets 10 and busts.
That’s how you do it correctly and accurately.
Look also at the statistical summaries at the end of the pages. The reduced deck of cards make it easier to count them hands.
This is mathematics — all right? It ain’t … card-counting! And, I already exposed you here several times the “thin mathematical ice” of card-counting. The only formula that applies refers to the BJ natural situations:
· Probability of blackjack natural: (A * T) / C(R, 2)
where A = Ace, 10 = ten-valued cards, R = total remaining cards in the deck.
The odds are better (or the probability is higher) for situations when larger amounts of 10 and Ace are left in the deck. But such situations are rare. They occur more often in one-deck games and heads-up play. If there are many players in the game, the advantage is diluted to virtually zero advantage.
The advantage is created by the payouts. If the dealer has a blackjack, the player loses his bet; if the player has a natural, he is paid the bet times 1.5.
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
Not always. The combination or boxed arrangement (2 3 4 5 8 *) may or may not be a bust depending on the straight arrangements that lead to this (potential) boxed arrangement. (8 5 4) may be a straight arrangement that may or may not be counted in the boxed arrangement (2 3 4 5 8 *). One needs to see the complete files of boxed and straight arrangements to tell if the counting is correct. However, if one computes probabilities using boxed arrangements instead of straight arrangements, the results will be wrong because the possible boxed arrangements are not all equally likely as they are with straight arrangements (if generated properly).
Agreed. However, can you provide a link(s) to BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT and their statistical summaries so that one can determine if your statistical summary generation is correct. The summaries of the scenarios presented on page 163 were distorted in some non-obvious way. Seeing how correct the (full) data is in these smaller cases and the associated scenario summaries can help lead to an explanation of why our interpretations seem to differ.Look at the first hands as arrangements:
2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 8
2 3 4 5 9
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 10
2 3 4 5 11 6
2 3 4 5 11 7
2 3 4 5 11 8
2 3 4 5 11 9
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 5 11 10
2 3 4 6 5
2 3 4 6 7
2 3 4 6 8
2 3 4 6 9
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 10
2 3 4 6 11 5
2 3 4 6 11 7
2 3 4 6 11 8
2 3 4 6 11 9
2 3 4 6 11 10
…
Look at a card sequence as this: 2 3 4 5 11 10 . 14 + 11 = 25 — that would be a bust, but we count the Ace as 1 in this situation. So, 14 + 1(1) = 15 — must hit; Dealer gets 10 and busts.
That’s how you do it correctly and accurately.
Look also at the statistical summaries at the end of the pages. The reduced deck of cards make it easier to count them hands.
Why am I having trouble understanding how to apply Saliu 'systems' to real-world games?
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
Have you read section 2 of the following page: http://saliu.com/occult-science-gambling.html
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
"The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
.....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) | The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate-----------------------------------------“Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........"Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." — ZG
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