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Thread: Ion Saliu (aka Parpaluck), Advantage Gambling Renaissance Man or Charlatan?

  1. #16

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    From Ion Saliu's Lotto FB page ...

    (Does sound a bit charlatanesque. What are the terms of the 'guarantee'?)
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    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDutton View Post
    Allow me to kick-off the soiree with a kind reference to Ion by conspiracy writer and radio host Clint Richardson at his popular 'Reality Blog' --

    ... the actual “odds” at wining at blackjack are all over the spectrem of opinion and hope. And the word winning must also be defined here. The odds at “winning” one hand are different than winning five hands, which are different than winning ten. The average player plays tens or hundreds of hands in a single trip, and thousands of hands in his lifetime. So winning on one gambling trip doesn’t mean that person is ahead on their life totals. But I guarentee that the last remodel or expansion on your favorite casino was instituted with part of yours and others total losses!

    According to Ion Saliu’s Paradox (PDF): random generation does not generate all possible combination’s, as the odds that a hand will repeat before all possible hands are dealt are a sure thing. So, to consider the odds, random generation is not an accurate source. If there are 334,490,044 total possible complete hands in blackjack, and we randomly generate 334,490,044 hands, the statistics show that approximately 63% will be unique and 37% will be repeats.

    And the point is… if you can show me a person (besides Rain Man) who can sit down and play that many hands, with no outside influences, with no burned cards, with no change of dealers or bathroom breaks, with no dealer mistakes, and with no sleep… then I will except the odds you come up with.

    In other words, whenever you hear someone quote the odds and tell you the right way to play blackjack, they are talking out of their butt – which is where you should tell them to stick their advice! Likewise, if you take advice from a stock broker (who makes money from your wins and your losses regardless) or from the government (who’s investment owned corporations are on the other side of your trade, and who wins your losses) you are a fool, and are playing into the trap of legalized embezzlement through stock market gambling.
    This demonstrates better than anything I could say just how pernicious are the convoluted double talk fake teachings of Ion Salui and how easily unsophisticated individuals can be taken in. I wonder if his tripe qualifies for vice squad material? Who does police the internet, anyway?
    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 -8/23/10
    “There are not one hundred people in the United States who hate The Catholic Church,
    but there are millions who hate what they wrongly perceive the Catholic Church to be.”
    Bishop Fulton J. Sheen

    “It takes a very long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso

  3. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by aslan View Post
    ....pernicious are the convoluted double talk fake teachings of Ion Salui
    Me thinks thou art too quick to judge.
    Remember the Wright Brothers? Da Vinci? Tesla? ... they were all denounced and scorned by their peers ...
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  4. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parpaluck View Post
    This is mathematics. Card-counting is NOT mathematics. In fact, mathematics strongly disproves the validity of card counting under the current conditions (multiple decks and players, and penetration). All authors and developers of card counting systems know the reality — but they hide it. That’s why I said in another thread that card counting is the biggest deception in gambling. That rattled N0rm badly
    Norm's sims clearly show the degenerated value of multiple decks and reduced penetration, as do most all credible counting authorities.
    > Are you saying that counting WAS valid back in the day of deep-dealt single deck? That the concept IS valid, per'se? Or no?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  5. #20
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    Thumbs down Indiscrete Mathematics

    Quote Originally Posted by Parpaluck View Post
    As of my blackjack odds calculations — they are absolutely mathematical. There is only one way to calculate probability: P = Favorable cases (F) / Total cases (T). There is no other way. My software generates ALL BLACKJACK HANDS following the Dealer’s rules. Of all possible hands based on Dealer’s rules, 41% are BUST HANDS. Now, the Player has many more options than the Dealer – primarily, the Player has options to avoid bust. But the bust probability for the Player is higher than what them casinos want them Players to believe in.
    The above statement is likely based on Probability Theory, Live! (163) that states, "And now, the shocking results! If you go all the way down to the bottom of BjAllHands1Combos.TXT, you see that the bust percentage is 41.97%. Wow! We all believed John Scarne and his “biblical” figure of 28%! Keep this new figure in mind: The odds for a blackjack dealer’s bust are at least 41.97%. The bust probability is calculated by dividing the number of dealer’s busted hands to the total possible blackjack actions." However, the number of favorable combinations / number of total combinations is not the probability. One needs to use arrangements, not combinations. However, there is something very odd about the counts in the two scenarios later on the same page of the book. For example, "Total Dealer BUSTS: 224469768 (64.89%); Total Complete BJ Hands: 334490044; Total Blackjacks (10+A): 128 (4.83%)." How can busting (64.89%) be 1753670 times as likely as a blackjack (4.83%)? The 128 blackjacks being 4.83% suggests there are only 2650 possible arrangements. Page 162 indicates, "The output files are also available absolutely freely as downloads: BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT." I would like to view these files. Link?
    Last edited by Dodo; May 28th, 2014 at 11:20 PM.

  6. #21
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    P41 Saliu

    "Also important—and contrary to common belief—is that the past draws do count in
    any game of chance, and Pascal demonstrated that hundreds of
    years ago...

    I was able to answer such a question and quantify it in
    a mathematical expression (logarithmic) I named the
    Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). We already met
    the FFG in chapter 1. Indeed, the formula is fundamental.
    log(1 – DC)
    p = --------------------
    log(1 – p)


    Indeed, FFG is the most essential formula of theory of
    probability. This formula was directly derived from the most Probability Theory, Live!
    fundamental formula of probability: number of favorable cases, n, over total possible cases, N: n / N.

    The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) is a historic
    discovery in theory of probability, theory of games, and
    gambling mathematics. The formula offers an incredibly
    real and practical correlation with gambling phenomena.
    As a matter of fact, FFG is applicable to any sort of highly
    randomized events: lottery, roulette, blackjack, horse racing,
    sports betting, even stock trading..."
    ~ ~ ~ ~

    FFG: FORMULA FROM GOD

    We saw Ion blaming Pascal for destroying the concept of Gamblers' Fallacy! Good. Then there is FFG: his historic discovery. Well, I hope so... about time somebody did!

    I am more intimately concerned with I have 10,2, and the dealer has 10 up. Here I will bust if my next card is a 10 and my $1000 will go down the drain with only a whimper from me. Card counting cannot help, because the true count is 0. Can the FFG help me now?... I don't think so. Can anything help me now? Yes, two things... God and Ion's Dealer Bust figure of 41.97%. Much to the howls, threats and crap headed my way from those other idiots further down the table (I am at third base), I wave off, sit on my 12 and the dealer goes 2,10 bust. Thank you God! Thank you Saliu.com!
    Last edited by Katz; May 29th, 2014 at 02:56 AM.

  7. #22
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    Default Confused

    So, so, confused! Uhhhh, if I'm understanding this right Parpaluck is saying card counting is bogus! Wtf!!
    Are you saying that ole Mr N's software is crap and bogus? All an illusion?
    A wise man once told me that " numbers don't lie". He is and was correct at the time I was told that.
    So who to believe? I don't like Mr N, but that's purely political belief differences. His software isn't needed, in the "real world" of advantage play.
    Parpaluck....uhhhhhh......I guess I'm going to call bullshit as we call it on the farm . I'm close to having 20 years under my belt as an AP. I have APed everything from slots to vp to BJ to carny games in the casinos.
    Strait CC ing BJ is very much real although the edge is so small it's not worth a humans time. 1 or 2 or 3 percent edges suck. Give me 5%, 10, 15, 40, 80, 100% and yes 2 or 300% edges. I've never had the honor of a 300% edge yet, 200, yes I have ,twice. It was dam assed fun!
    Am I correct in seeing you think you can beat the lotto? Predict numbers? Uhhhhhhh...ok....hmmmm
    I haven't been to any FB pages or know to much about what's being discussed here, I have a farm to run, a wife to love, and AP trips to go on.
    But if I'm correctly getting what's going on here, you sir are a Loon! Some how you have numbers scrambled around in your head that aren't right.
    Give me a plus count in BJ single deck of +5 or more and I'll mortgage the farm to make that bet.
    Ok, well........not sure I want to jump into this fire.....lol

    Machinist".............aka......Mac
    So look buddy it's nothing personal, but either your the unluckiest person in the world or your stealing from me. Either way............ I WANT NO PART OF YOU!!!!!! NEVER!!!!

  8. #23

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    “Forbidden

    You don't have permission to access /newreply.php on this server.

    Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.”

    OK! I “sanitized” my post to satisfy the “pious” ZGeetser. My post, however, is terribly incomplete… I can’t afford to waste my time…

    Arrangement is a numeric set in combinatorics. Some incorrectly call the arrangements N Permutations M or permutations of N elements taken M at a time. You understand arrangements better if you consider the horse-racing trifectas. If there are 10 them horses in a race, there are 10 * 9 * 8 = 720 straight trifectas. Or, there are (10 * 9 * 8 / 3 * 2 * 1) = 120 boxed trifectas. The boxed arrangements are also knows as combinations (the foundation of jackpot lotto games such 6 from 49). You can read a lot more about it on my combinatorial Web page —

    · Combinatorics, arrangements, combinations.

    You must generate all possible hands in blackjack if you want to calculate probabilities (odds) with maximum accuracy. The outcome can be arrangements or combinations. Total possibilities can amount to staggering numbers of blackjack hands, in this case. You can handle better the ideas if you work first with smaller card decks. I referred you earlier to a webpage that exemplified in great detail all combinatorial concepts:

    · Blackjack Dealer Bust: New Software to Calculate Odds.

    Ion Saliu,
    Founder of Gambling Mathematics
    “Grind old norms for better new rules!”

  9. #24

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    – attempt to continue my post –

    This text file shows all blackjack hands as combinations based on Dealer’s rules. Total cards: 13 (only one suit, from 2 to Ace).

    This text file shows all blackjack hands based on Dealer’s rules as arrangements. Total cards: 13 (only one suit, from 2 to Ace).

    Look at the first hands as combinations:
    2 3 4 5 6
    2 3 4 5 7
    2 3 4 5 8 *
    2 3 4 5 9 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *


    The first 4 cards (2 3 4 5) sum up to 14; the Dealer must hit. The hands marked by * are busts.

    Look at the first hands as arrangements:
    2 3 4 5 6
    2 3 4 5 7
    2 3 4 5 8
    2 3 4 5 9
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 11 6
    2 3 4 5 11 7
    2 3 4 5 11 8
    2 3 4 5 11 9
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 6 5
    2 3 4 6 7
    2 3 4 6 8
    2 3 4 6 9
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 11 5
    2 3 4 6 11 7
    2 3 4 6 11 8
    2 3 4 6 11 9
    2 3 4 6 11 10


    Look at a card sequence as this: 2 3 4 5 11 10 . 14 + 11 = 25 — that would be a bust, but we count the Ace as 1 in this situation. So, 14 + 1(1) = 15 — must hit; Dealer gets 10 and busts.

    That’s how you do it correctly and accurately.

    Look also at the statistical summaries at the end of the pages. The reduced deck of cards make it easier to count them hands.

    This is mathematics — all right? It ain’t … card-counting! And, I already exposed you here several times the “thin mathematical ice” of card-counting. The only formula that applies refers to the BJ natural situations:

    · Probability of blackjack natural: (A * T) / C(R, 2)

    where A = Ace, 10 = ten-valued cards, R = total remaining cards in the deck.

    The odds are better (or the probability is higher) for situations when larger amounts of 10 and Ace are left in the deck. But such situations are rare. They occur more often in one-deck games and heads-up play. If there are many players in the game, the advantage is diluted to virtually zero advantage.

    The advantage is created by the payouts. If the dealer has a blackjack, the player loses his bet; if the player has a natural, he is paid the bet times 1.5.

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    The above statement is likely based on Probability Theory, Live! (163) that states, "And now, the shocking results! If you go all the way down to the bottom of BjAllHands1Combos.TXT, you see that the bust percentage is 41.97%. Wow! We all believed John Scarne and his “biblical” figure of 28%! Keep this new figure in mind: The odds for a blackjack dealer’s bust are at least 41.97%. The bust probability is calculated by dividing the number of dealer’s busted hands to the total possible blackjack actions." However, the number of favorable combinations / number of total combinations is not the probability. One needs to use arrangements, not combinations. However, there is something very odd about the counts in the two scenarios later on the same page of the book. For example, "Total Dealer BUSTS: 224469768 (64.89%); Total Complete BJ Hands: 334490044; Total Blackjacks (10+A): 128 (4.83%)." How can busting (64.89%) be 1753670 times as likely as a blackjack (4.83%)? The 128 blackjacks being 4.83% suggests there are only 2650 possible arrangements. Page 162 indicates, "The output files are also available absolutely freely as downloads: BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT." I would like to view these files. Link?
    Hard to follow Ion. Did he answer sufficiently?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  11. #26
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    Post Can We Go Further? Need More Data!

    Quote Originally Posted by Parpaluck View Post
    Look at the first hands as combinations:
    2 3 4 5 6
    2 3 4 5 7
    2 3 4 5 8 *
    2 3 4 5 9 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *
    2 3 4 5 10 *


    The first 4 cards (2 3 4 5) sum up to 14; the Dealer must hit. The hands marked by * are busts.
    Not always. The combination or boxed arrangement (2 3 4 5 8 *) may or may not be a bust depending on the straight arrangements that lead to this (potential) boxed arrangement. (8 5 4) may be a straight arrangement that may or may not be counted in the boxed arrangement (2 3 4 5 8 *). One needs to see the complete files of boxed and straight arrangements to tell if the counting is correct. However, if one computes probabilities using boxed arrangements instead of straight arrangements, the results will be wrong because the possible boxed arrangements are not all equally likely as they are with straight arrangements (if generated properly).

    Look at the first hands as arrangements:
    2 3 4 5 6
    2 3 4 5 7
    2 3 4 5 8
    2 3 4 5 9
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 10
    2 3 4 5 11 6
    2 3 4 5 11 7
    2 3 4 5 11 8
    2 3 4 5 11 9
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 5 11 10
    2 3 4 6 5
    2 3 4 6 7
    2 3 4 6 8
    2 3 4 6 9
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 10
    2 3 4 6 11 5
    2 3 4 6 11 7
    2 3 4 6 11 8
    2 3 4 6 11 9
    2 3 4 6 11 10


    Look at a card sequence as this: 2 3 4 5 11 10 . 14 + 11 = 25 — that would be a bust, but we count the Ace as 1 in this situation. So, 14 + 1(1) = 15 — must hit; Dealer gets 10 and busts.

    That’s how you do it correctly and accurately.

    Look also at the statistical summaries at the end of the pages. The reduced deck of cards make it easier to count them hands.
    Agreed. However, can you provide a link(s) to BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT and their statistical summaries so that one can determine if your statistical summary generation is correct. The summaries of the scenarios presented on page 163 were distorted in some non-obvious way. Seeing how correct the (full) data is in these smaller cases and the associated scenario summaries can help lead to an explanation of why our interpretations seem to differ.

  12. #27

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    Why am I having trouble understanding how to apply Saliu 'systems' to real-world games?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  13. #28
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    Lightbulb Method (Partially) Revealed

    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Yes. What is the Parpaluck correct playing strategy?
    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    So what's the strategy?
    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Why am I having trouble understanding how to apply Saliu 'systems' to real-world games?
    Have you read section 2 of the following page: http://saliu.com/occult-science-gambling.html

  14. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    However, can you provide a link(s) to BjAllHands1-11Ord.TXT and BjAllHands4-11Ord.TXT and their statistical summaries so that one can determine if your statistical summary generation is correct. The summaries of the scenarios presented on page 163 were distorted in some non-obvious way. Seeing how correct the (full) data is in these smaller cases and the associated scenario summaries can help lead to an explanation of why our interpretations seem to differ.
    Yes, please, Dr. Saliuaxiomatic.
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

  15. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodo View Post
    Have you read section 2 of the following page: http://saliu.com/occult-science-gambling.html
    No, but I dig the title!
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
    .....................The Zengrifter Interview (PDF) |
    The Zengrifter / James Grosjean Reputation Debate
    -----------------------------------------
    “Truth, like gold, is obtained not by growth, but by washing away all that is not gold.” — Leo Tolstoy........
    "Is everything a conspiracy? No, just the important stuff." ZG

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