Plus counts

[aslan]

For HILO in the long run you will make money for each positive integer true count. I am really not sure what you are asking. You will lose more hands than you win for all but the rarest true counts. You will win more on the hands you win due to blackjacks, doubles and splits than you will on the hands you lose on average to make you come out ahead at each positive true count in the long run. When you say out of 100 plus counts how many can you expect to come out ahead. I think you mean in the long run. The other possibility is you mean out of 100 hands at each true count ... Anything in between is ambiguous as to the duration and magnitude of the plus count so can't be answered. The reason there is huge variance (swings) in blackjack is because you are almost never a favorite to win the next hand. You make money because the hands you win at all positive integer true counts for HILO are on average larger wins than the hands you lose. After reading over your expression of what you are asking in all your posts I don't think it can be answered. There are too many variables to length and strength of each plus count opportunity.

Maybe a simpler way of saying it is to take a single point in a plus count and examine it. How often will a hand dealt at +5 result in a winning split, a winning double down, an unopposed blackjack, or a proper insurance play? Let's say it is 45% of the time. How does it vary from 0 to +20?

Secondly, how often will a negative count, say -5%, result in a winning split, a winning double down, an unopposed blackjack, or a winning insurance play? Let's say it is 43% of the time. How does it vary from 0 to -20?

Since, except for index plays, splits, double downs, naturals, and proper insurance plays (I'm treating them differently than other index plays because they are so significant) account for nearly all of the card counters advantage, the frequency they are likely to occur in the shorter run may be revealing. I don't know. At present, all I know is that they make the difference for the long run. A glimpse into their frequency of occurrence might shed some light on expectations for the shorter run, not too short, but still not the long run.
I guess one way to approach this would be to run a billion hands and look only at those hands where splits, double downs, and naturals occurred. Then, sort the results according to the count, and compare.

Am I making any sense yet? lol