Secondly, how often will a negative count, say -5%, result in a winning split, a winning double down, an unopposed blackjack, or a winning insurance play? Let's say it is 43% of the time. How does it vary from 0 to -20?
Since, except for index plays, splits, double downs, naturals, and proper insurance plays (I'm treating them differently than other index plays because they are so significant) account for nearly all of the card counters advantage, the frequency they are likely to occur in the shorter run may be revealing. I don't know. At present, all I know is that they make the difference for the long run. A glimpse into their frequency of occurrence might shed some light on expectations for the shorter run, not too short, but still not the long run.
I guess one way to approach this would be to run a billion hands and look only at those hands where splits, double downs, and naturals occurred. Then, sort the results according to the count, and compare.
Am I making any sense yet? lol