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Thread: Counting and Insurance

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Default Counting and Insurance

    Quote Originally Posted by flyingwind View Post
    Anyone want insurance?

    The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

    1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
    2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
    3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
    4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

    What is the IC of #3?
    What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
    How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
    No that's not quite right. The correlation of the Insurance Count (#3) is 1. It's as good as you can possibly get with counting. Playing a holecard is a different thing and correlation in the sense we would talk about the insurance correlation of a count does not apply. Neversplit5s has it right- that's the Insurance Count. Another interesting thing about that count is that the always troubling 12 vs. 2 decision has excellent correlation to it too- stand on 12 vs. 2 exactly at RC=0, where you would take insurance. You can even bet based on the Insurance Count and it will work just fine (especially if you are sidecounting aces) but not nearly as well as the normal counts so don't do that unless you have some other reason to.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey View Post
    No that's not quite right. The correlation of the Insurance Count (#3) is 1. It's as good as you can possibly get with counting. Playing a holecard is a different thing and correlation in the sense we would talk about the insurance correlation of a count does not apply. Neversplit5s has it right- that's the Insurance Count. Another interesting thing about that count is that the always troubling 12 vs. 2 decision has excellent correlation to it too- stand on 12 vs. 2 exactly at RC=0, where you would take insurance. You can even bet based on the Insurance Count and it will work just fine (especially if you are sidecounting aces) but not nearly as well as the normal counts so don't do that unless you have some other reason to.
    But I forget - if one uses a perfect insurance count, like 10s count, or even JSTAT count for that matter, how much would that actually add to an already authorise strong counting game?

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2017
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    449

    Default

    This first check you write is for your house. The 2nd check you write is for the insurance on your house.

    Tens played x 2 plus 4 is the single deck formula for 33% insurance correlation of tens vs non tens. Finally, at post 224 on the Even Money thread at Norm's forum Don S gave the for perfect insurance on a conventional. Exercising my mental capacity for Perfect Insurance is far more important than any other side count.

    Suppose your bet is $1600 and you are facing on Ace. If you turned this decision around just 4 times a month, it would increase your profits $12,800 a year. Another move at decreading variance.

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