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Thread: Floating advantage for Spanish 21

  1. #1
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    Thumbs up Floating advantage for Spanish 21

    Here's my data for the floating advantage for SP21, S17 game. Figured it was important now that there is some SP21 being dealt with really good pen.

    My methodology was to create a shoe of varying depths using CVData, and deal one round per shoe. I also used playing indices and a high-PE count. I'm not sure if this is the best way to purely calculate the floating advantage, but that's the way the game is actually played so I figured it would be the most useful. 3 billion rounds per data point.

    8D: -0.426%
    7D: -0.425%
    6D: -0.409%
    5D: -0.405%
    4D: -0.380%
    3D: -0.347%
    2D: -0.262%
    1.5D: -0.169%
    1.0D: +0.046%

  2. #2
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey View Post
    Here's my data for the floating advantage for SP21, S17 game. Figured it was important now that there is some SP21 being dealt with really good pen.

    My methodology was to create a shoe of varying depths using CVData, and deal one round per shoe. I also used playing indices and a high-PE count. I'm not sure if this is the best way to purely calculate the floating advantage, but that's the way the game is actually played so I figured it would be the most useful. 3 billion rounds per data point.

    8D: -0.426%
    7D: -0.425%
    6D: -0.409%
    5D: -0.405%
    4D: -0.380%
    3D: -0.347%
    2D: -0.262%
    1.5D: -0.169%
    1.0D: +0.046%
    Was floating advantage covered sufficiently in Katrina Walker's Span21 book that Norm did all the editing and sims for?
    Or did they miss it?

  3. #3
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    Default What About Spanish 21?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    What would you regard as being a good Spanish 21 game? How often do you play the game in the casino Sven?
    A good Spanish game has un-crowded conditions, six deck, 85% pen with s17 or redoubling allowed. I play Spanish21 everyday and regular DD blackjack with mid-shoe entry and late surrender.
    Last edited by Svengarlicky; March 20th, 2015 at 07:07 PM.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    A good Spanish game has un-crowded conditions, six deck, 85% pen with s17 or redoubling allowed. I play Spanish21 everyday and regular DD blackjack with mid-shoe entry and late surrender.
    Are you able to churn out more winning sessions in Spanish 21 more often than losing sessions and what counting strategy are you using to play it? I went to the library today and checked out a book by Arnold Snyder titled "The Big Book of Blackjack." It's interesting to read what he had to say about the game. I do have a better grasp on comprehending the basic strategy of the game after looking at the chart he listed in the appendix. I noted the use of a wide spread in the game as he suggests when the time calls for it. I'm not sure if it's a game I'm going to play in the casino anytime soon but if I can perfect the basic strategy, who knows. I wonder if the PE, BC, and IC change for the Red Seven count used in Spanish 21 vs. Traditional BJ, I would have to assume so because the strategies are different between the games. Starting a RC at -36 for a 6D Spanish 21 game may be more than I am wanting to deal with when I'm at the casino for simplicities sake.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    Are you able to churn out more winning sessions in Spanish 21 more often than losing sessions and what counting strategy are you using to play it? I went to the library today and checked out a book by Arnold Snyder titled "The Big Book of Blackjack." It's interesting to read what he had to say about the game. I do have a better grasp on comprehending the basic strategy of the game after looking at the chart he listed in the appendix. I noted the use of a wide spread in the game as he suggests when the time calls for it. I'm not sure if it's a game I'm going to play in the casino anytime soon but if I can perfect the basic strategy, who knows. I wonder if the PE, BC, and IC change for the Red Seven count used in Spanish 21 vs. Traditional BJ, I would have to assume so because the strategies are different between the games. Starting a RC at -36 for a 6D Spanish 21 game may be more than I am wanting to deal with when I'm at the casino for simplicities sake.

    Why would you elect to use Red 7 for Spanish 21? Snyder knows next to nothing about this blackjack variant so he cannot be regarded as a trusted authority. I would suggest/recommend the Secret Monkey Count which is completely balanced and based on 48 card decks. If the game's h.a. is in the mid 30s, it is nonsensical to propose a large spread is required to beat it. I play Spanish 21, 8-deck blackjack w/surrender and DD; each game requiring it's own counting system and indices in order to be versatile.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    Why would you elect to use Red 7 for Spanish 21? Snyder knows next to nothing about this blackjack variant so he cannot be regarded as a trusted authority. I would suggest/recommend the Secret Monkey Count which is completely balanced and based on 48 card decks. If the game's h.a. is in the mid 30s, it is nonsensical to propose a large spread is required to beat it. I play Spanish 21, 8-deck blackjack w/surrender and DD; each game requiring it's own counting system and indices in order to be versatile.
    I have learned quite a bit about blackjack that I did not know from Snyders book, "The Big Book of Blackjack." I'm not using Red 7 for SP21. I'm only in the early stages of trying to learn the basic strategy of the game which is more difficult than Blackjack which I regard as more challenging. I noticed that Snyder recommended using Red 7 probably because he has the system listed in his book. I've never heard of the "Secret Monkey Count." I was digging around on BJInfo and found some interesting posts regarding Spanish21 where I may decide to dig a little futher...Katarina Walker



    Feb 22, 2008

    "10 reasons why Spanish 21 is more beatable than Blackjack


    If you play the Spanish 21 games with low house edges (and they are all over
    the northeast, Canada, and the Pacific northwest)
    e.g. S17 Spanish 21 (6-deck
    house edge 0.37%) or H17 with redoubling Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.42%),
    you make a lot more money than if you play Blackjack. Why?
    1. Even in the H17
    game, the Ace EOR is -0.73. It’s even higher in the S17 game. The Ace is so much
    more valuable than in Blackjack because naturals ALWAYS get paid 3:2, and you
    can split Aces to 4 hands, and draw and double down on them.
    2. To top it
    off, this Ace of heightened value occurs more frequently than in Blackjack (1/12
    instead of 1/13).
    3. Indices are much more powerful than in Blackjack, where
    there is little scope for play variation. (e.g., for stiff hands, which are the
    most common, what can you do as the count goes up: vary your play between
    hitting 12 vs 2,3 and standing? Wow. Powerful stuff (not). In Spanish 21, the
    indices win rate is 2.15 times the BS win rate, on average. There is HUGE scope
    for play variation as the count goes up.
    4. For each increment of +1 in the
    Hi-Lo true count, the increase in the natural proportion (i.e. the gradient) is
    17% higher in Spanish 21 than Blackjack, because of the Ace-richness.
    5. For
    each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the SP21 advantage increases by an
    average of 0.65% (when using all indices). Isn’t BJ around 0.5%? And Aces are
    1/4 of the money cards rather than 1/5.
    6. SP21 penetration is up to 90% in
    some venues. On average, SP21 pen is much better than BJ pen. You would all know
    that win rate (90% pen) is around 6 times the win rate at 65% pen, not even
    including the extra shuffle time.
    7. Dealers regularly give early surrender
    because they have no idea what they are doing.
    8. I don’t use one, but a
    2-level count would be even better. The KatCount, 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (from 2
    through Ace) has a correlation coefficient (between EORS) of 0.983.
    Significantly higher than the corr coeff for the Revere Point Count for
    Blackjack (which is 0.976).
    9. There is hardly any heat, so you can bet
    optimally. You get table conditions that haven’t been seen in Blackjack for 40
    years.
    10
    . You can double down on any number of cards. As the count
    increases, we all know that we win more doubles. In SP21, we get even more
    winning doubles than in Blackjack, as the count goes up."

    A quote from Anthony Curtis:
    “As is often the case in gambling, cursory
    investigation, erroneous assumptions, and limited information can lead to
    missed
    opportunities. Such has been the case with Spanish 21.”
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; March 22nd, 2015 at 05:03 AM.

  7. #7

    Default continuation of the last post

    Katarina Walker



    Feb 29, 2008




    >Where was Janecek, Wong, Auston, Wiz, Bryce, even Norm, etc, all capable
    perhaps of doing what you have done but, for >some reason, apparently not
    interested in doing it. I even asked some of them but it was “maybe later, no
    time now” kind of >answer.

    Thanks.
    I am first for a couple of reasons:
    1. I was in the right place
    at the right time.
    I started playing Pontoon (Australian Spanish 21) because
    all the Blackjack games were CSM and the Pontoon were hand-shuffled. I didn’t
    have a choice.
    You’ll laugh at this one: I was playing Pontoon for years (and
    making making excellent money; more than enough to live comfortably on) before I
    realised that the HE was half the HE for the Blackjack game at my casino.
    (Burswood in Perth, where HE Blackjack is around 0.7% – ENHC, no surrender – and
    HE Pontoon is 0.34%.)
    I had always thought that it was such a shame that I
    couldn’t play Blackjack – the real game – until I eventually got wise about the
    fact that the BJ was actually the inferior of the two, by a mile.

    It was
    always going to be an Australian that cracked this game.

    2. My husband is the director of his own law firm (i.e. he is grossly
    overpaid), so I can do whatever I want. If I want to spend 6-12 months writing a
    simulator, I can. Not many people have the time to do something like this. It
    took 3 years.

    Anyway, if you think SP21 can’t be beaten, just look at the facts: house
    edges as low as 0.37% in the USA (0.31% in Australia), good EORs (the Ace EOR is
    huge), and a massive scope for play variation as the count increases from
    neutral. It is these last two that impact on the advantage increment per +1
    increase in the true count. In BJ, it is about 0.5%. But because of the Ace EOR
    being so big, and the huge scope for play variation, in SP21, the advantage
    increases by 0.65% per +1 increase in the TC (using all indices). So if you’re
    not convinced, you’re one of a rapidly diminishing group of non-believers. A
    group that does NOT include people like Wong, Schlesinger, Wizard of Odds, etc.
    It’s evidence-based, not faith-based. I’m a trained programmer and
    mathematician, not a system-seller.

  8. #8

    Default

    Now I am puzzled as to why Walker said years ago that blackjack is the more inferior game between the two. She seems like an intelligent lady, is she right? Now I'm pondering if Spanish 21 is the game I should train for and dump blackjack. Would people say that Spanish 21 sucks... so they can have all of the glory for themselves as a form of cover to not persuade newer players to play the game??? Being mislead and misled on purpose??? What is this??? What is this??? Maybe blackjack was the more inferior game where she was located. "I had always thought that it was such a shame that I
    couldn’t play Blackjack – the real game –
    until I eventually got wise about the
    fact that the BJ was actually the inferior of the two, by a mile." Katarina Walker
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; March 21st, 2015 at 09:01 PM.

  9. #9
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    Cool Enhc

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    Maybe blackjack was the more inferior game where she was located.
    Correct! European No-Hole-Card (ENHC) Blackjack is one example. She discusses other disadvantages in her book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    So if Spanish 21 was the more profitable game compared to blackjack where Walker lives. How would her statement hold up here in U.S. casinos? In certain situations is Spanish 21 more beatable than blackjack here in the states? I guess you one would have to analyze the games here in the states.
    If you want to learn sp21 basic strategy, you would benefit from the flash card program MNEMOSYNE free download. I've been using it a couple of years.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    I have learned quite a bit about blackjack that I did not know from Snyders book, "The Big Book of Blackjack." I'm not using Red 7 for SP21. I'm only in the early stages of trying to learn the basic strategy of the game which is more difficult than Blackjack which I regard as more challenging. I noticed that Snyder recommended using Red 7 probably because he has the system listed in his book. I've never heard of the "Secret Monkey Count." I was digging around on BJInfo and found some interesting posts regarding Spanish21 where I may decide to dig a little futher...Katarina Walker



    Feb 22, 2008

    "10 reasons why Spanish 21 is more beatable than Blackjack


    If you play the Spanish 21 games with low house edges (and they are all over
    the northeast, Canada, and the Pacific northwest)
    e.g. S17 Spanish 21 (6-deck
    house edge 0.37%) or H17 with redoubling Spanish 21 (6-deck house edge 0.42%),
    you make a lot more money than if you play Blackjack. Why?
    1. Even in the H17
    game, the Ace EOR is -0.73. It’s even higher in the S17 game. The Ace is so much
    more valuable than in Blackjack because naturals ALWAYS get paid 3:2, and you
    can split Aces to 4 hands, and draw and double down on them.
    2. To top it
    off, this Ace of heightened value occurs more frequently than in Blackjack (1/12
    instead of 1/13).
    3. Indices are much more powerful than in Blackjack, where
    there is little scope for play variation. (e.g., for stiff hands, which are the
    most common, what can you do as the count goes up: vary your play between
    hitting 12 vs 2,3 and standing? Wow. Powerful stuff (not). In Spanish 21, the
    indices win rate is 2.15 times the BS win rate, on average. There is HUGE scope
    for play variation as the count goes up.
    4. For each increment of +1 in the
    Hi-Lo true count, the increase in the natural proportion (i.e. the gradient) is
    17% higher in Spanish 21 than Blackjack, because of the Ace-richness.
    5. For
    each increment of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the SP21 advantage increases by an
    average of 0.65% (when using all indices). Isn’t BJ around 0.5%? And Aces are
    1/4 of the money cards rather than 1/5.
    6. SP21 penetration is up to 90% in
    some venues. On average, SP21 pen is much better than BJ pen. You would all know
    that win rate (90% pen) is around 6 times the win rate at 65% pen, not even
    including the extra shuffle time.
    7. Dealers regularly give early surrender
    because they have no idea what they are doing.
    8. I don’t use one, but a
    2-level count would be even better. The KatCount, 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 (from 2
    through Ace) has a correlation coefficient (between EORS) of 0.983.
    Significantly higher than the corr coeff for the Revere Point Count for
    Blackjack (which is 0.976).
    9. There is hardly any heat, so you can bet
    optimally. You get table conditions that haven’t been seen in Blackjack for 40
    years.
    10
    . You can double down on any number of cards. As the count
    increases, we all know that we win more doubles. In SP21, we get even more
    winning doubles than in Blackjack, as the count goes up."

    A quote from Anthony Curtis:
    “As is often the case in gambling, cursory
    investigation, erroneous assumptions, and limited information can lead to
    missed
    opportunities. Such has been the case with Spanish 21.”

    Another element that appears to have been omitted from the list is that Spanish21 is more conducive to card counting than is regular blackjack.

  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Svengarlicky View Post
    I would suggest/recommend the Secret Monkey Count which is completely balanced and based on 48 card decks.
    Is that in Kat Walker's book, or is that something that AutoMonk came up with?
    "The dogs bark but the caravan moves on."
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  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    Is that in Kat Walker's book, or is that something that AutoMonk came up with?
    It's the one AutoMonk came up with. T=-1, A=-2. 2-6=+1. He had a few handy indicies listed as well, I can dig it out if you need it.

    If I remember right Kat did a straight hi-lo starting with an offset count.

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