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Type: Posts; User: SoFlaLaw

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    Everyone, Thank you for indulging me. I...

    Everyone,

    Thank you for indulging me. I understand your points, I just don't agree with the underlying assumptions. So, I agree to disagree, and leave it at that.

    Happy New Year. BTW - Did...
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    Not clear on your premise. If I can assume that...

    Not clear on your premise. If I can assume that you mean that Monty Hall eliminated all but one closed curtain, AS WELL AS THE CURTAIN I INITIALLY SELECTED, then there are now 2 curtain options. I...
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    zg, Really quite simple. When you started you...

    zg,

    Really quite simple. When you started you had 3 options. Each had 1/3 value/odds.

    With 1 option removed, it no longer retains its value, its value/odds is transferred equally between 2...
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    Pat, I'll buy a pair (well, Vanna's pair) of UU's...

    Pat, I'll buy a pair (well, Vanna's pair) of UU's (used to be OO's) for .....

    Is that what you were thinking Machinist?
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    sagefr0g, thanks for the link: From that...

    sagefr0g, thanks for the link:

    From that article, the following information really shines a light on why I have looked at this from a different perspective than you, zg and dodo:

    This question...
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    Since I did not develop the program that was...

    Since I did not develop the program that was written to generate that application, I cannot know whether there was a bias toward assuming that the probability value of Door 2 vsn only be reallocated...
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    Your outline of the 3 options does not provide...

    Your outline of the 3 options does not provide for any difference based upon exposure of Door 2 or 3, than the game player's initial selection decision 1/3. Behind Door 1, once. Behind Door 2, once....
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    As for your second paragraph, that is my point....

    As for your second paragraph, that is my point. People are making subjective (not objective) value based decisions on how to reallocate the value of the original probability of the exposed door...
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    sagefr0g, Your first paragraph correctly...

    sagefr0g,

    Your first paragraph correctly restated my approach to reallocating the value of the exposed door.

    As for your second paragraph, that is my point. People are making subjective (not...
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    Zengrifter, Thanks for your attempts to...

    Zengrifter,

    Thanks for your attempts to convince, but I guess I am amongst those who reject the commonly held "proof". Assuming that there were three (3) options, then each would have a 1/3...
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    sagefr0g, Thanks for the response. I guess...

    sagefr0g,

    Thanks for the response. I guess that I will just agree to disagree. Your life or death example applies the 1/3 probability to the remaining non-selected door based upon a "values" (bad...
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    Absolutely, when there were 1000 doors, my odds...

    Absolutely, when there were 1000 doors, my odds were 1:999. When 998 doors are removed, there are only 2 doors remaining, my selection and the other. At that point in time, it is as if the other 998...
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    Reviewed this Bayes Theorem solution 1000s of times, but, how is this not now 50:50?

    I have reviewed this Monty Hall Bayes Theorem problem thousands of times. Although I understand the alleged probabilities solution through the application of Bayes Theorem to is underlying facts, I...
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